Unpopular Cameroonian President Likely to be Reelected
By Kate Fin
Paul Biya, president of Cameroon since 1982, is expected to win what will be his seventh consecutive presidential bid, a phenomenon made possible by a 2008 constitutional amendment abolishing executive term limits. Though Cameroonian presidential elections are not scheduled to take place until October 9, the widespread international and domestic consensus is that the race has already been decided.
According to Young Africa, Biya is one of nine candidates for the presidency, of whom six are first-time contenders, and none are women. Biya’s party, the People’s Democratic Movement (RDPC), currently controls the vast majority of seats in the Cameroonian National Assembly.
Other candidates include opposition leader Joshua Osih of the Social Democratic Front and Akere Muna of the Popular Development Front. Muna, staunchly anti-corruption and pro-Anglophone, is Biya’s biggest foe.
Pundits still believe Biya to be the front runner, according to the Cameroonian Journal. The 85-year-old leader’s three decades of rule have been marked by relative stability. His campaign manifesto emphasizes his dedication toward preserving unity and security for the central African state. These goals might be undermined by conflict in the country’s western, Anglophone region, however, where Reuters reports that insurgents are seeking to establish an independent state called Ambazonia.
Al Jazeera accuses Biya’s administration of human rights violations in his campaign to root-out the Anglophone insurgency. The government has used tactics such as imprisoning journalists in overcrowded jails, violently beating and killing peaceful protesters, and cutting-off the region’s internet access for three months.
Biya’s army has employed similar, non-discriminatory tactics in fighting the terrorist group Boko Haram, present in the country since 2014. Multiple videos have emerged of Cameroonian soldiers sent to fight Boko Haram executing civilian women and children. The Ministry of Communications has derided the videos as “fake news.”
In the wake of these and other accusations, Biya’s approval ratings have dipped below 30 percent, according to Pan African Visions. VOA Africa reports that he has spent a total of four-and-a-half years abroad and more than $182 million on private trips; his frequent absence from the country has stirred resentment among Cameroonians and given opposition candidates room to maneuver.
Despite this, polls cited in the Journal of Cameroon still project Biya will win. Many Cameroonians do not believe that any single opposition candidate could garner the votes to defeat him, and others are abstaining from voting out of protest.
That is not to say that Biya feels confident in his victory, however. A fiasco involving U.S. ambassador Peter Barlerin in June might signal Biya’s willingness to take drastic measures to retain power. The New York Times reports that Barlerin was accused of secretly funneling $5 million to the political campaigns of Biya’s opponents. Evidence has not been released to support these allegations; opposition members claim that they were invented by Biya’s supporters to invoke outrage at foreign election meddling and bolster support for the incumbent. Such campaigns, as well as the absence of EU observers on election day, could help ensure Biya’s seventh victory.