Québec Future Coalition Makes Surprise Gains

By William Greer

The newly founded center-right Québec Future Coalition (CAQ) won a major upset against the establishment parties in Québec’s National Assembly elections held on October 1. The party received 37 percent of the popular vote and 74 seats out of the 125 in the province’s assembly though founded only in 2011, reports the Guardian.

CAQ’s party chief and the new Québec premier is François Legault, a Québecois nationalist and former-member of the Québec Party (PQ), the official opposition heading into this election, who founded the nationalist and autonomist party in 2011. The party campaigned on tax cuts, reduction in immigration to the province, and an increase in public spending on health and education, according to the Washington Post.

The Guardian reports that the party pledged to lower the number of immigrants entering the province annually from 50,000 to 40,000 as well as require a French language and values test after three years, although this would require negotiations with Ottawa since the Canadian federal government determines permanent residency and citizenship. Additionally, the party promised to raise the education budget by 3.5 percent annually without a tax hike.

The two establishment parties, PQ, the traditional Québec nationalist and sovereignist party, and the Liberal Party, the federalist party, faced their worst elections in half a century. PQ, established in 1968 to advocate for independence of Francophone Québec from largely Anglophone Canada, received 17 percent of the popular vote and 9 seats, losing its official party status. The Liberal Party, the incumbents, received 25 percent of the vote and 32 seats. According to the Washington Post, together, the two establishment parties received 42 percent of the vote, indicating a major political realignment in Québec.

The Canadian Broadcasting Company reports that for the last 50 years, these two parties have dominated Québec’s politics over the question of independence. Twice, in 1980 and 1995, PQ governments held referendums on independence for the province. Both failed, although the latter was incredibly close. The question of Québec’s independence now seems moot as CAQ advocates increased autonomy instead of independence for the province.

Another newly founded party, Solidarity Québec, emerged as the new voice for independence. The party, a left-wing sovereignist party founded in 2006, now holds more seats in Québec’s National Assembly than PQ. The party received 16 percent of the popular vote and ten seats. The Washington Post reports that the younger generation of Québecois sovereignists sees PQ as a party of the baby boomers, contributing to its electoral decline.

Another unprecedented shift to come from in this election was the record number of women voted into office. Female legislators won 52 seats, or 42 percent of the total, the highest ever for Québec’s National Assembly.   

For Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, this election came as particularly bad news. According to the Washington Post, since he became prime minister in 2015, his Liberal Party has lost control in Ontario, British Columbia, and now Québec, the three most populous provinces, an ill omen for the upcoming national elections for Canada’s parliament set for October 21.