Jair Bolsonaro Dominates Ahead of Brazilian Elections

Brazilians will vote in the first round of the presidential elections on October 7 to determine who will succeed outgoing president Michel Temer. The media and politicians are framing this election as a clash between far-right and left-wing policies, with major consequences for Brazil’s future.

Literate Brazilians aged 18 to 70 are legally obligated to vote, with over 147 million individuals eligible. If a candidate does not win a majority of the vote in the first round, a runoff election consisting of the top two candidates will be held on October 28. According to polling agency IBOPE, the most likely candidates to move forward to the runoff election are far-right Deputy Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party and center-left politician Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party. Following closely behind is leftist candidate Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party.

The Workers’ Party is the party of Lula, the disgraced but beloved former president of Brazil. Lula won consecutive elections with unprecedented levels of support from the Brazilian public. According to the Nation, he introduced major social welfare programs that grew the middle class of Brazil. However, Lula was sentenced to 12 years in prison in 2018 for receiving an alleged bribe. Originally, Lula planned to run in the election, but his recent conviction for corruption prohibits him from becoming a candidate. Therefore, Haddad was selected to be the candidate for the Workers’ Party on September 9, according to Globo.

Jair Bolsonaro currently leads every major poll. He openly praised the former Brazilian military dictatorship and has repeatedly made racist, sexist, and homophobic remarks. On September 6, an individual stabbed Bolsonaro, which turned him into a martyr figure for his supporters, according to Folha de São Paulo. Since the attack, Datafolha has reported that polls show his support increasing. Public protests based on #EleNão, a Brazilian offshoot of the #MeToo movement, broke out around Brazil on September 30. These large protests were seen as a repudiation of Bolsonaro’s far-right policies and sexist remarks, according to the BBC.

Bolsonaro is slated to advance to the runoff election with 26 percent of the vote in the first round, according to DataPoder360. Despite Bolsonaro’s relatively large base of support, he also faces high levels of rejection. According to Datafolha, 45 percent of Brazilians say that they would never vote for him. Most of the other presidential candidates are projected to either tie or beat Bolsonaro in the runoff election. Mr. Haddad has a three-point margin over Mr. Bolsonaro in the run-off, according to DataPoder360.

As Brazilians go to the polls, it is clear that the balance of the country depends on the outcome of this election. Both sides of the political spectrum argue that this year could be the breaking point for their agendas.