Sri Lanka’s Political Crisis
Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena at a meeting in Russia in 2017
Sri Lanka’s national government plunged into turmoil when President Maithripala Sirisena replaced incumbent Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with former-president and political rival Mahinda Rajapaksa on October 26. According to the New York Times, Wickremesinghe has refused to step down, instead calling for a confidence vote from Parliament, saying, “I am confident that I am the only one who can get a majority. If someone else can show a majority, I will give way.” The Hindustan Times reports that Sirisena suspended Parliament on October 27 as he moved to appoint a new 30-member cabinet with Rajapaksa.
The Indian Express recounts how, during the 2014 elections, Sirisena broke ties with Rajapaksa, splitting the United People’s Freedom Alliance and allying himself with Wickremesinghe’s United National Party. Both leaders committed to investigating Rajapaksa’s alleged war crimes during Sri Lanka’s prolonged civil war and corruption as well as reducing Sri Lanka’s dependency on the predatory Chinese loans that Rajapaksa welcomed. However, Rajapaksa’s party’s success in local elections and the coalition government’s failure to investigate his war crimes created a political rift in between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe. The New York Times quoted Sirisena as saying that the former-prime minister stalled reforms and is “arrogant, stubborn, and inflexible,” making it necessary for him to appoint Rajapaksa “for the sake of the motherland.”
Wickremesinghe has, according to the Indian Express, pointed out that his deposition is “unconstitutional,” as Sri Lanka’s 19th Amendment outlines that the president cannot dismiss the prime minister and that he can only be replaced if he signs a letter of resignation or ceases to be a member of Parliament. Parliament is scheduled to reconvene on November 16. Political analyst Kusal Perera has said that, although Wickremesinghe’s party has the majority in Parliament, Rajapaksa and Sirisena are probably using the time to put together a two-thirds majority in order to dissolve the legislature. According to the Hindustan Times, the deputy minister for Wickremesinghe, Ranjan Ramanayake, has also accused China of bribing legislators on Rajapaksa’s behalf, a claim that China has flatly denied.
Political unrest has spread to the streets, with the New York Times reporting on the eruption of violence on October 28 when Petroleum Minister Arjuna Ranatunga allegedly ordered his bodyguard to open fire when confronted by a crowd loyal to Rajapaksa, killing one and injuring two more. Rajapaksa’s supporters also stopped TV broadcasts that were supportive of Wickremesinghe. On October 30, around 25,000 protesters gathered in Colombo to burn effigies of Sirisena in support of Wickremesinghe. Parliament’s speaker, Karu Jayasuriya, has warned that the crisis could lead to a “bloodbath” on the streets if the assembly does not hold a vote, according to the Hindustan Times.
In light of China’s acquisition of a submarine port in Hambantota in 2017, political scientist Brahma Chellaney explained to the New York Times that “the political turmoil, more than Rajapaksa’s return to power, works to China’s advantage. In country after country, China has exploited internal disarray to advance its objectives.” The Economic Timesreports that India, however, has remained largely silent on Rajapaksa’s appointment despite being a longtime ally of China. The developing situation will likely have significant consequences in the Indo-Sino competition for influence in the island country.