Georgian Voters Snub Ruling Party in Presidential Elections

Georgia Dream Presidential Candidate Salome Zurabishvili in 2013. Wikimedia Commons.

Georgia has been a democratic stronghold and a force of pro-Western sentiment in the Caucasus since 2003. On October 28, it held its last direct-ballot presidential election, as future elections will be held using an electoral college. The results reflected disappointment and disillusionment among Georgian voters, who are increasingly frustrated by their country’s sluggish economic growth and weak governance.

Recent Georgian politics has been dominated by two powerful men and their corresponding parties: Mikheil Saakashvili of the United National Movement (UNM) and Bidzina Ivanishvili of the Georgian Dream Party (GD). BBC writes that Saakashvili came to power during the 2003 Rose Revolution, a peaceful pro-Western movement that marked the end of an era of Soviet-influenced leadership. Saakashvili and his party, the UNM, pursued liberalizing reforms that earned him accolades from the West.

The GD was launched in 2012 by billionaire Ivanishvili as a platform for his political activities, according to BBC. By promising to increase welfare and work towards pragmatic relations with Russia, it succeeded in ousting the sitting UNM party in the 2012 parliamentary elections, reports Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). Saakashvili conceded the loss and committed to a peaceful democratic transition. Since 2012, GD has held a majority in parliament and the presidency. Saakashvili has since left the country, but continues to support UNM from abroad.

As the October presidential elections neared, EurasiaNet reported that many expected GD to attain an easy victory. GD-backed candidate Salome Zurabishvili, a French-born diplomat and former-foreign minister, was widely anticipated to become the first elected female president of Georgia, according to RFE/RL.

“If there is a sufficient mobilization of Georgian Dream supporters, Salome Zurabishvili should score a first-round victory,” Ivanishvili said, per RFE/RL.

GD planned an election night party replete with celebrities and entertainment to celebrate Zurabishvili’s victory, reported EurasiaNet. Rather than sweeping her UNM opponent Grigol Vashadze, Zurabishvili only managed to secure a meager lead of one percent. Neither candidate came close to clearing the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff; Zurabishvili finished with 38.6 percent of the vote, and Vashadze won 37.7 percent, reported Georgia Today.

Above all, the election results indicate voter apathy and widespread disillusionment with the political establishment. According to RFE/RL, voter turnout was a paltry 46.7 percent. Neither party ran on a coherent platform; rather, the election was characterized by mudslinging, corruption allegations, secretly-recorded tapes, and personal defamation. Georgian voters were offered few substantive policy proposals.

Georgia’s issues are complex. During GD’s five years of power, it has failed to address the country’s fragile rule of law, lack of institutions, and economic inequality, according to the Foreign Policy Research Institute. In addition, voters are wary of billionaire Ivanishvili’s dominating influence over GD. By casting anti-incumbency votes, Georgians communicated their disenchantment with the party they overwhelmingly supported in 2012.

The election was not simply a censure of GD; it was also a rejection of Zurabishvili as a candidate. Born and raised in France, Zurabishvili speaks Georgian with an accent and is derided by her opponents for being foreign, arrogant, and unappealing. This view is exacerbated by statements she made earlier in her career in which she admitted partial Georgian culpability for the 2008 war with Russia. Scholar Lincoln Mitchell explained to Georgia Today that although this is a standard academic opinion, it amounts to heresy in Georgia.

A runoff between Zurabishvili and Vashadze will occur on December 2. As voters reallocate their votes from third-party candidates to the two main competitors, analysts expect Vashadze to come out on top, reports EurasiaNet.

“So long as the opposition can mobilize their voters, it is reasonable to believe that Vashadze is in the lead at the moment,” Dustin Gilbreath of the Caucasus Research Resource Centers told EurasiaNet.

“We received a clear message from Georgian society,” admitted Georgian Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze, according to a report from Georgia Today. “This election has taught us much, showing that a lot must be changed in the country in the shortest possible period. This message from our society has been received and taken in.”

It is unclear whether a presidential transition will lead to any real change in policy. Neither party has a clear ideological message or strong reform plans. In addition, constitutional changes implemented in 2010 have restricted the president’s power, rendering the prime minister the key decision maker in the country. Thus, the outcome of this election is arguably less important than that of parliamentary elections scheduled for 2020.

Many maintain that this election demonstrated the power of the Georgian electorate to hold their leaders to account. Others read it as a proxy struggle between the two most powerful men in Georgian politics, Ivanishvili and Saakashvili.

“This election showed that we still have two informal leaders,” explained Sopho Bukia, Georgian editor of Caucasus news site Jam-News. “They both personally selected election candidates and […] this time, Saakashvili won.”