May Faces Struggle To Get Her Brexit Deal Approved

May struggles to convince Parliament to approve of her Brexit Deal. (Flickr)

After more than two years of negotiations, the European Union approved Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed Brexit plan on November 14. However, May still must face the daunting task of convincing Parliament to approve the deal.

May held individual meetings with her most prominent front-benchers a day before she announced the deal’s approval, speaking from the steps of 10 Downing Street. May claimed the meetings involved “long, detailed, and impassioned” debate over the 585-page plan.

The approval of the plan set off a series of reactions in Parliament. So far, four cabinet ministers have resigned over the deal, the most prominent being Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab. Others included Brexit Undersecretary Suella Braverman, Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey, and Shailesh Vara, the minister of state for the Northern Ireland Office. Raab stated that his reasons for resigning included “predatory terms” offered by the EU. On the other hand, Vara left his post because he felt that the deal left “[Northern Ireland] in a halfway house with no time limit on when we become a sovereign nation.”

Meanwhile, some Tory members of Parliament (MPs) are calling for a vote of no confidence. In order to trigger such a vote, Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, would need to receive 48 letters expressing a lack of confidence in May. Members of the European Research Group predict that Brady will receive a sufficient number of letters within the week. If the vote of no confidence succeeds, May will step down from office. If it does not, MPs will be unable to challenge her for the next twelve months, ensuring that she will preside over Britain’s planned exit from the EU in spring 2019.

An interactive simulator created by the Guardian, which details each sect of Parliament’s likely leanings, predicts that May’s plan will not pass. She needs 320 votes for a majority. The Guardian projects that only 198 MPs will vote in favor of the plan. Important factions that are unlikely to vote for the plan include Brexit opponents like former-Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and members of the opposition Labour Party’s front bench, headed by leader Jeremy Corbyn and Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer. Even if May manages to convince smaller groups of the plan’s merits, she is unlikely to turn MPs like Corbyn and Johnson, who have been against her plan from the beginning.

If May’s plan is rejected, she may attempt to convince Parliament to extend Article 50 of the EU Treaty, which would give her more time to draft a new plan. If this is unsuccessful, she has 21 days to come up with a new proposal while Conservative MPs will likely push for a vote of no confidence.