Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri Resigns Amid Weeks-Long Protests
Lebanon’s current economic crisis is its worst since the 1975-1990 civil war. The national banking system, which had been shuttered for two weeks, reopened on November 1. However, the reopening did not ease national unrest, and the nation’s finances remain precarious. In the tumult, Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned on October 29, though he will remain as a “caretaker” prime minister until a new government is formed. National demonstrations, have not ceased, and it seems that neither the people nor the politicians know what to expect next.
The banking system had closed for two weeks in an attempt to stabilize the economy. Lebanon’s debt stands at 152 percent of its GDP, and the country has been trying to stave off capital flight ever since banks reopened on November 1. Banks have limited transfers abroad, but this move has further enraged protestors. Reports of armed clients entering banks and demanding withdrawals has led to a growing worry among banking officials that banks may be forced to close again. The increasing exchange rate for Lebanese pounds highlights the growing economic uncertainty. Officially, the US dollar is pegged to a rate of 1507.5 pounds, but the unofficial rate has risen to more than 1800 pounds on the black market as of Friday, November 8.
The lack of capital inflow to the country, due to limited foreign aid and investment, has led to a shortage of US dollars. As a result, most national banks have begun lowering credit rates, in some cases reducing available credit to customers by more than 90 percent. With impending economic catastrophe and continuing public unrest, Hariri and his ministers may have to act in a caretaker capacity until a new government is formed. Hariri has expressed a desire for the formation of a technocratic government devoid of political parties. However, Hezbollah, which holds tremendous influence in Lebanese politics, is unlikely to acquiesce to such demands.
For the protestors, Hariri’s departure is only the first step in the process of rooting out corruption and getting rid of those they blame for Lebanon’s socioeconomic struggles. The idea that the entire government is to blame was best exemplified by the hundreds of protests organized on November 6. Protestors demonstrated in front of many of all of Lebanon’s government agencies and demanded action against corruption. The demonstrators placed significant focus on the Ministry of Education, as the government started reopening schools this week in an effort to return the country to normalcy. The protestors, which included dozens of high school students, view the government’s move as inappropriate, given that their grievances have still not been addressed.
In order to satisfy the public and ease demonstrations, a new government would need to be thoroughly nonpartisan and technocratic. However, no likely candidates that would be acceptable to all parties have emerged to lead the new government. President Michel Aoun, who is charged with overseeing the formation of a new government, is working with Hariri to create a new government. Should any new government be composed of the old guard, however, it would likely fail to appease protestors’ demands and fuel further anti-government demonstrations.