U.S. Troop Withdrawal Allows for Turkish Offensive
President Donald Trump declared on October 6 that he would be pulling American troops out of Kurdish-controlled northern Syria to pave way for a Turkish military offensive. Now, with American troops out of the way, Kurdish fighters are facing a joint Turkish-Russian incursion that aims to secure a zone along the Syrian border with Turkey free of Kurdish forces.
In March 2011, in what started as pro-democracy and anti-regime protests calling for the fall of the al-Assad regime, devolved into a civil war that has resulted in hundreds of thousands displaced and massive civilian casualties. According to the BBC, the multi-sided conflict includes a number of actors in addition to the al-Assad government and Syrian rebels, including Islamic State (ISIS) fighters, Kurdish forces, and other regional and ethnic groups.
According to the New York Times, Syrian Kurds have historically resided in northern Syria, close to the border of Turkey where a large population of Kurdish people also reside. Following the outbreak of war, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a local Turkish militia, emerged as one of the only groups that was successfully able to combat extremists like IS in the region. Under the Obama and early Trump administrations, the U.S. allocated funds and training to YPG units, which enabled them to reclaim a large section of land in northern Syria.
NPR reports that Kurdish forces, long regarded by the U.S. as pivotal in the fight against ISIS, are classified as terrorists in Turkey given their ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a group with a history of insurgency in Turkey. The New York Times reports that the Turkish offensive was thus regarded by Turkey as necessary to combat the security threat posed by Kurdish control of the area close to the Turkish border.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the offensive has resulted in more than 176,000 people being displaced and over 120 civilians killed in battle. In addition, IS fighters previously held as prisoners by Kurdish forces have been able to escape, NPR reports, as the Turkish offensive has forced the Kurds to direct their efforts toward stopping the offensive. According to the Guardian, at least 750 associates of IS were able to escape camps after Turkish shelling. In addition, Marvan Qamishlo, a spokesperson for the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), said that five ISIS fighters escaped from a prison located in the Syrian city of Qamishli, which borders Turkey and was under bombardment from Turkish forces. The SDF currently jails around 12,000 captured ISIS fighters.
As a result of the Turkish offensive, geopolitical power in the region has shifted in favor of Russia as the U.S. has relinquished its role. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced a Turkish-Russian deal to push out Kurdish troops from the border regions, which the BBC reports is in order to house some of the over 3 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. According to the BBC, starting from noon on October 23, Kurdish fighters have 150 hours to pull back 18 miles from the border. After the expiration of the deal, on October 29, joint patrols of Turkish and Russian troops will begin overseeing the contested area. According to Reuters, Russia has been in communication with Kurdish forces, though Kurdish retreat remains uncertain. According to the Atlantic, Kurdish forces have withdrawn from a small section around the border in conjunction with a cease-fire between Turkish and Kurdish troops, but further troop pullouts remain uncertain.
The Syrian civil war has impacted the country and the region both geopolitically and socially. The massive number of displaced civilians, both internally and externally, has created a massive humanitarian crisis. Most recently, the withdrawal of American troops has paved the way for a Turkish offensive that has brought further displacement and allowed the escape of ISIS prisoners who are now free to re-organize.