Moldovans Elect Pro-Russian Socialist Ion Ceban as Mayor of Chisinau
Chisinau City Hall, where the mayor works (Wikimedia Commons)
On November 3, Chisinau held runoff elections in which citizens elected Ion Ceban as mayor of the Moldovan capital. Ceban, a member of Moldova’s Socialist Party, is the first left wing, pro-Russia mayor to win in Chisinau since Moldova gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
The runoff occurred after the elections on October 21, in which Ceban won 40.3% of the vote while pro-EU Andrei Nastase won 31%. Because neither candidate won a majority of the vote, the city held a runoff election in early November.
Moldova, a post-Soviet state, lies between Ukraine and Romania. Its citizens are generally bilingual, split between Romanian and Russian. This dualism manifests in politics. The question of aligning with either Russia or the European Union dominates national and local elections. Candidates are divided into two categories: those who support a closer relationship with the EU and those who want to remain tied to Russia.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, political affiliation has generally been split between the pro-Russian countryside and the pro-European metropolitan capital of Chisinau. Ceban’s victory proved a major upset, as Moldova’s capital has always elected pro-European mayors.
Until now, Moldova has been increasing its proximity to the European Union. In 2014, Chisinau signed an association agreement with the EU, allowing for increased travel and stronger economic relations between the two countries. Moldova has been increasing its trade with Europe while decreasing its trade with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Currently, Moldova trades two-thirds of its goods with the EU. However, the election of a pro-Russian mayor in Chisinau demonstrates a possible reversal of this trend.
One possible explanation for Moldova’s return to Russian allegiance is the “theft of the century.” In 2015, leading political figures with ties to Europe were suspected of involvement in a banking scandal in which $1 billion, an eighth of Moldova’s GDP, went missing. Since then, growing skepticism towards corruption has been projected onto politicians allied with the European Union.
Another reason voters might be looking to Russia is the “stability” and familiarity that Russia represents. According to the Economist, several incidents of corruption have disillusioned pro-Europe voters. In 2016, Prime Minister Vlad Filat, a pro-Europe politician, was arrested for corruption. This election cycle, leaders of the liberal-populist alliance ACUM Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase claimed that authorities were trying to poison them. When Andrei Nastase broke campaign rules during the summer 2019 elections, the EU froze aid to the country.
More evidence of Moldova’s potential reversal to warmer relations with Russia was the presidential elections. President Igor Dodon, who stands at the “opposite end of the spectrum” from pro-EU Prime Minister Maia Sandu, was elected in 2016. During his campaign, Dodon said that he would call for a referendum on pulling Moldova from the EU and working towards joining Russia’s EEU. For the country’s next election in 2020, Dodon is heavily publicizing his close relationship with Russia.