Political Outsiders Dominate Tunisian Presidential Elections

Tunisian officials tally votes from the October 2014 election. (Wikimedia Commons)

Political outsiders Kais Saied and Nabil Karoui advanced to the second round of voting in Tunisia’s presidential election after a competitive first round on September 15. The candidates secured 18.4 percent and 15.6 percent of the vote, respectively. Saied and Karoui distinguished themselves by appealing to widespread frustration among Tunisians over a stagnant economy and a seemingly ineffective political class.

The 2019 presidential election stands as just the second election since the formation of Tunisia’s democratic institutions, created in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. The establishment of Tunisia’s democratic institutions served as an end to a series of protests and revolutions that spread across the Middle East and North Africa in late 2010. As a result of the increasingly violent protests during the Arab Spring in Tunisia, then-President Zine el-Abedin Ben Ali was ousted and forced to flee to Saudi Arabia. While Ben Ali has since passed away, Tunisia has continued to face difficulties in rebuilding trust in government.

The 2019 presidential election has been complicated by the death of former-President Béji Caïd Essebsi, who passed away a few months before the end of his five-year term. This meant that the election slated for November 17 had to be held ahead of schedule.

In addition to the election’s logistical challenges in the wake of a rushed schedule, economic instability has left Tunisians feeling apathetic toward the political process. A Tunisian factory worker named Mourad described his frustration, saying, “when you end up without a salary, totally invisible, without anything, I think politics is the last thing you worry about.” Mourad is not alone in his difficulties. GDP growth has slowed significantly, and unemployment has consistently hovered around 15 percent. As a result, mainstream political figures saw minimal success. For example, Prime Minister Youssef Chahed earned only seven percent of the vote.

Media mogul Nabil Karoui has made waves as a candidate completely antithetical to the political establishment. A major component of this image is the fact that he’s been in prison for the last several weeks. Karoui is currently “under investigation for alleged money-laundering.” This has helped to create a public perception that he is a martyr running against the establishment and being persecuted for it.

Another component of Karoui’s campaign is his platform, which promises reforms such as clean water and education, aimed at benefiting Tunisia’s poor.

However, Kais Saied was the clear winner of the first round. His campaign is similarly characterized by a rejection of the ruling class in Tunisia. Unlike Karoui, however, Saied’s campaign has succeeded “with a virtual absence of media campaign and without great financial means.” His platform is centered on conservative policy and an appeal to voters’ “duty to the fatherland.”

Saied’s reputation as a constitutional expert and a scholar has earned him support from many Tunisians. Part of his success stems from his appeal to voters from the far-right Ennahda party. Saied has come out against homosexuality, gender equality in inheritance, and the abolition of the death penalty. He also advocates for a complete restructuring of the government, including the abolition of legislative elections and the ability to recall officials during their tenure.

This election will decide the second post-Arab Spring president in Tunisia. As a result, it will play a big role in determining the future of Tunisian governance and the legacy of the Arab Spring. With neighboring Algeria and Libya both experiencing dramatic civil unrest and instability and Egypt slipping back into corrupt authoritarianism, Tunisia is among very few Arab Spring nations who still have a functioning democracy. Tunisians will soon see how well it does function as they head to the ballot box for the runoff between Saied and Karoui.