Compass Elections: A State-by-State Guide to Election Night 2020

With contributions from Emily Langlois

A flag of the United States waving. (Wikimedia Commons)

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Senator Kamala Harris, the Democratic ticket, are challenging Republican President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Michael R. Pence in the 59th U.S. presidential election, which has been considered a referendum on the Trump presidency. Held in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the election is expected to have a record turnout, and a significant number of voters are expected to vote by mail. In addition, thousands of down-ballot races may help reshape the country for the next decade. There are widespread worries about post-election unrest, as there is a likely possibility that a winner will not be announced on election night, and these worries are exacerbated by Trump’s efforts to delegitimize the electoral process. 100 million American voters have already cast their ballots—here is what you need to know. 

(The U.S. states and territories are listed below in the order of poll closing time and the likelihood of races being competitive. All times are in Eastern Standard Time.)

Time zones: E - Eastern, C - Central, M - Mountain, P - Pacific, H - Hawaii-Aleutian.

Northern Marianas

(pop. 51,000) - 4:00a EST

The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) in the northwestern Pacific will be the first U.S. territory to close its polls on Election Day. Like the other permanently inhabited U.S. territories, the CNMI elects one non-voting delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives. Despite the Republican dominance in the island chain––no Democrats have held a seat in the territorial legislature since 2010, and none have held the governorship since 1998––the incumbent delegate to Congress (and the first––the CNMI was only given a delegate in 2008), Gregorio Sablan, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, is set to win his seventh term unopposed.

Guam

(pop. 168,000) - 5:00a EST

Guam, to the south of the CNMI, is much more competitive and leans more Democratic. The Democrats won back the territorial governorship in 2018 and maintained its territorial legislature majority (which it has held since 2008). The territory’s delegate seat has been held by a Democrat since 1993, and incumbent Michael San Nicolas, elected in 2018 with around 55 percent of the vote, is likely to win reelection this time as well despite being under investigation for ethics violation. He is being challenged by one of his predecessors, Robert Underwood, another Democrat. If no one wins a majority, a runoff will be held on November 17. 

While Guam does not cast electoral votes for the presidential race, it has held a non-binding straw poll in every presidential election since 1980. The result of the poll is often regarded as an indicator of how the mainland will vote; it had aligned with the winner of the presidential race until 2016—when the poll voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton, who lost the election but won the popular vote. Biden is winning this year’s straw poll.

Puerto Rico

(pop. 3,189,000) - 4:00p EST

The Commonwealth of Puerto Rico in the Caribbean has a different party system from the U.S. mainland. Two parties dominate the political scene––the pro-statehood New Progressive Party (PNP) and the pro-status quo Popular Democratic Party (PPD). The main issue on the ballot for Puerto Rico this year is the non-binding statehood referendum. Puerto Rico has held five previous referendums, the most recent one in 2017, to determine its political status. The 2017 referendum only had a 23 percent turnout due to the PPD boycotting the vote, which resulted in a landslide victory for statehood with 97 percent of the vote. The referendum this year will be the first one to ask a yes-or-no question regarding statehood, and the most recent polling indicates that “Yes” will likely win. 

Also to look out for in Puerto Rico is the race for governor and resident commissioner (Puerto Rico’s title for its congressional delegate). The incumbent PNP governor Wanda Vázquez Garced (a Republican who endorsed Trump) lost her primary to Pedro Pierluisi, a Democrat who formerly served as the resident commissioner from 2009 to 2017. Vázquez, who was unelected, ascended to the office in 2019 following the resignation of the previous governor, Ricardo Rosselló, amidst the Telegramgate scandal. Rosselló had attempted to appoint Pierluisi as his successor instead, but the appointment was ruled unconstitutional by the island’s supreme court. Pierluisi is running on the same ticket with incumbent PNP (and Republican) Resident Commissioner Jenniffer González. According to polling, he faces a close race against the PPD candidate, Mayor Carlos Delgado Altieri of Isabela, due to the anti-colonial Citizen's Victory Movement and the pro-independence Puerto Rican Independence Party also being on the ballot and playing spoiler. In both houses of the territorial legislature, however, the PNP is expected to maintain its majority.

U.S. Virgin Islands

(pop. 106,000) - 6:00p EST

Not much is notable about the local races in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Republicans are practically a non-presence in the island group, holding no seats in the territorial legislature. The Democratic incumbent delegate Stacey Plaskett will almost certainly win another term.

Kentucky

(pop. 4,468,000, 8 EV) - 6:00p EST (E) / 7:00p EST (C)

Around 30 percent of Kentucky voters are voting by absentee ballot this year, and postmarked ballots can be received up until November 6. 40 percent of voters have cast their votes early in person. With tabulation starting on October 1, counties have been instructed to report all in-person votes (around 70 percent of the vote) and mail-in ballots received by poll closing time (around 25 percent of the vote) by midnight on election night.

Once a Democratic state due to its coal industry, the defeat of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear in 2015 by Republican Matt Bevin marked the completion of its Republican transformation. While it is certain that the Bluegrass State will be the first state called for Trump––Democrats have lost the state by double digits in every presidential race since 2000––an expensive challenge is being waged against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell by Democrat Amy McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot who came close to flipping the 6th Congressional District in 2018. The victory of Democrat Andy Beshear (son of Steve Beshear) in the 2019 gubernatorial election (thanks to Bevin’s unpopularity) had given Democrats hope that they can flip the seat in a statewide race. However, while McConnell is among the least popular senators, polling indicates that he is still comfortably ahead in the race. 

Five of the state’s six House seats are held by Republicans, of which only one is considered competitive: the 6th District, encompassing Lexington and the state capital Frankfort, where Republican incumbent Andy Barr is facing a challenge from the Democrat Josh Hicks. Barr narrowly won by only 9,732 votes (3 points) in 2018, and the district went for Beshear by 14 points. The 3rd District (Louisville) is the only safe Democratic district in the state. Republicans are also sure to maintain their majorities in both houses of the state legislature.

Indiana

(pop. 6,732,000, 11 EV) - 6:00p EST (E) / 7:00p EST (C)

Around 20 percent of Indiana voters are voting by absentee ballot, and mail-in ballots need to be received by noon on Election Day. Around 60 percent of voters have cast their ballots early in person. Full results may not be available until several days later, since counting only starts before noon on Election Day. Most counties report early and Election Day votes together, while the rest report absentee votes first. 

While Barack Obama won Indiana in 2008 in the midst of the Great Recession, the home state of Vice President Mike Pence has only turned more conservative since the economy recovered, with Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly going down in defeat in 2018. The Hoosier State is expected to be called for Trump quickly as well. However, a county to watch is Vigo County (Terre Haute), which has backed the winner of the presidential election since 1956, going for Trump by 6,006 votes in 2016. Meanwhile, moderate Republican Governor Eric Holcomb is facing a challenge from Democrat Woody Myers and Libertarian Donald Rainwater. Rainwater is enjoying a surge in support due to conservative opposition to the governor’s mask order, while Myers, a former health commissioner, is attacking the governor for not doing enough. Polls however show Holcomb comfortably leading.

Republicans hold seven of the state’s nine House seats, of which only one is competitive: the 5th District, encompassing the wealthy northern suburbs of Indiana. Republican incumbent Susan Brooks is not running for reelection, and the seat is being contested by Republican state senator Victoria Spartz and former Democratic state representative Christiana Hale. Only the 1st (Gary) and 7th (Indianapolis) Districts are reliably Democratic. While the 2nd District (north-central Indiana), Joe Donnelly’s old House seat that includes South Bend (where former Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg was mayor), used to lean Democratic, Republican-led redistricting in 2011 helped weakened it, and Republican Jackie Walorski is expected to win reelection without much trouble. Republicans will also likely maintain their majorities in both houses of the state legislature. 

Vermont

(pop. 600,000, 3 EV) - 7:00p EST

Mail-in ballots are sent to all registered voters in Vermont, and all ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Results will be available for most precincts by midnight.

Once one of the most Republican states for much of the 19th and 20th centuries, Vermont has not voted for a Republican for president since 1988, while also electing self-described democratic socialist Bernie Sanders for Representative—and later Senator. Vermont will be one of the first states to be called for Biden––even when 6 percent of voters wrote in Sanders’ name for president in 2016, Clinton still won over Trump by 27 points. The Green Mountain State’s sole representative, Democrat Peter Welch, will certainly win reelection, and Democrats will maintain their large majorities in both houses of the state legislature.

In the gubernatorial race, the incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott (New England Republicans being a lot more moderate than the national party) is being challenged by the Democratic Lieutenant Governor David Zuckerman (also of the Vermont Progressive Party). Polling however shows that Scott will likely be reelected, and no incumbent governor has been ousted since 1962. 

Virginia

(pop. 8,536,000, 13 EV) - 7:00p EST

Around 25 percent of Virginia voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots need to be received by November 6. In-person Election Day votes (around 30 percent of the vote) are reported first in most counties, while all processed early in-person ballots (around 40 percent of the vote) and mail-in ballots (around 20 percent of the vote) will be reported before 11 p.m. For ballots arriving after election day (around 5 percent of the vote), it may take until the weekend to get them counted.

Virginia, briefly considered a swing state in the 2000s, has turned into a safe Democratic state due to the fast growth of the DC suburbs. Hillary Clinton won here in 2016 by a larger margin than Obama had in 2012, and Democrats managed to gain a trifecta here in 2019. The Old Dominion will be among the first states called for Biden, even though the state may initially appear to be going for Trump due to Election Day votes being reported first. 

Democrats control seven of the state’s eleven House seats, the 8th, 10th, and 11th (Northern Virginia), as well as the 3rd (Hampton Roads) and the 4th (Richmond), being safe Democratic districts. Three House seats are fiercely competitive: the Democrat-held 2nd (Virginia Beach) and 7th (Richmond suburbs) Districts, and the Republican-held 5th District (Charlottesville to Danville). In the 5th District, incumbent Denver Riggleman (of “Bigfoot erotica” fame) was defeated in his primary after officiating a same-sex wedding. The race is now between Democrat Cameron Webb and Republican Bob Good. In the 2nd District, incumbent Elaine Luria narrowly defeated the Republican incumbent Scott Taylor by 6113 votes (2 points) in 2018, and she is now facing a challenge from Taylor once more. In the 7th District, incumbent Abigail Spanberger, who narrowly won by 6784 votes (2 points) in 2018, is being challenged by Republican State Representative Nick Freitas. While Democrat Qasim Rashid is running against Republican incumbent Rob Wittman in the 1st District (Northern Virginia to Hampton Roads), he is likely fighting an uphill battle.

Virginians are also voting on a controversial ballot initiative (Question 1), which would create a redistricting commission. Officials from both parties (including Democratic Senator Tim Kaine and most Democratic state senators) and the Virginia ACLU have supported the amendment, but it is facing opposition from the Democrats in the state House and the Virginia NAACP. The amendment is likely to pass.

South Carolina

(pop. 5,149,000, 9 EV) - 7:00p EST

Around 35 percent of South Carolina voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Officials are aiming to release all results on election night, but the large number of mail-in ballots means some counties may not finish counting until the day after. Absentee ballots are reported first in most counties, followed by in-person votes.

Even with Trump leading by narrower margins than in 2016, the Palmetto State is likely to remain Republican in the presidential race. Incumbent Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, however, is facing a major challenge from the former party chair of the state Democratic Party, Jaime Harrison. Harrison, who broke the fundraising record for a Senate race, is narrowly behind Graham in the latest polls. If Harrison wins, South Carolina will be the first state with two sitting Black senators (the other being Republican Tim Scott). Republicans are expected to keep their large majorities in both houses of the state legislature.

Republicans hold five of the state’s seven House seats. The only safe Democratic seat is the Black-majority 6th District (Columbia to Charleston), held by House Majority Whip James Clyburn. The Democrat-held 1st District (coastal South Carolina) is likely the only competitive race, where incumbent Joe Cunningham, who narrowly defeated the Republican candidate by 3,982 votes (1.4 points) in 2018, is facing a challenge from Republican State Representative Nancy Mace. However, with Jaime Harrison running a strong statewide campaign, Democrat Adair Ford Boroughs may have a chance to defeat Republican incumbent Joe Wilson in the 2nd District (Columbia to Augusta suburbs). Wilson infamously yelled, “You lie!” during President Obama’s speech to a joint session of Congress in 2009.

Georgia

(pop. 10,617,000, 16 EV) - 7:00p EST

Around 25 percent of Georgia voters are voting by absentee ballot, and all ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Around 45 percent of voters have voted early. With counties processing absentee ballots on October 19, most results should be available on election night, though for close races it could take until November 4 or 5 for all votes to be counted. Each county has different rules for reporting absentee ballots, so it is hard to say whether there will be a shift on a statewide level.

Democrats see a path to victory in the once reliably red state with the growth of Atlanta and its suburbs, and Biden narrowly leads in the latest polls in the Peach State. In 2018, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abram’s lead of 30,000 votes in Cobb County in the Atlanta suburbs helped her close the gap in the race, which she narrowly lost by 54,723 votes (2 percent). If Biden beat that margin, he will likely win the state. Georgia is also having two Senate elections this year—one the regular election with Democrat Jon Ossoff challenging incumbent Republican David Perdue, and one a special election to replace Republican Johnny Isakson, who retired in 2019. Ossoff came to national prominence running in the 2017 special election for Georgia’s 6th District (northern Atlanta suburbs) against Republican Karen Handel, a race he narrowly lost but paved the way for Democrat Lucy McBath flipping the seat in 2018. In the special election, eight Democrats, six Republicans, and five independents are on the ballot. On the Republican side, appointee Kelly Loeffler faces a challenge from Representative Doug Collins of the 9th District (northeast Georgia), while on the Democratic side, pastor Raphael Warnock is in the lead ahead of both Loeffler and Collin after a flurry of endorsements from prominent Democrats, who have earlier feared that Democrat Matt Lieberman, son of former Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, would play spoiler and lock Warnock out of the runoff.  Georgia requires runoff elections to be held on January 5 next year between the top two candidates of a race if no candidate receives half of the total votes. Both races have a possibility of going to a runoff since Libertarian Shane Hazel is also running in the regular Senate race.

Republicans control nine of the 14 House seats, while Democrats control five. Only two districts are competitive this cycle. In the 6th District, Lucy McBath, who won by just 3,264 votes (1 point) in 2018, is facing another challenge from Karen Handel. While in neighboring 7th District (northeast Atlanta suburbs), Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux is again trying to unseat Republican incumbent Rob Woodall, having come within 433 votes of flipping the seat in 2018. A lot of national attention has also been focused on a shoo-in race in the 14th District (northwest Georgia). With Republican incumbent Tom Graves not running for reelection, he is going to be succeeded by Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has supported the QAnon conspiracy theory in videos posted to Facebook prior to her run for office, and whose Democratic opponent has dropped out of the race. 

Florida

(pop. 21,478,000, 29 EV) - 7:00p EST (E) / 8:00p EST (C)

Around 45 percent of Florida voters are voting by absentee ballot, and all ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. With tabulation beginning 22 days before Election Day, the first batch of early votes (around 40 percent of the vote) and pre-tabulated mail-in ballots (around 40 percent of the vote) should be reported first before 8:30 p.m. Eastern, and Election Day votes (around 15 percent of the vote) will then follow. Though with some larger counties expected to be still counting mail-in ballots on November 9 and later, it could take some time to know the results for a close race.

Florida is infamous for having extremely close election results––most notably in the 2000 presidential election when George W. Bush won the state by 537 votes––and this year will likely be close as well, even with the Sunshine State being Trump’s adopted home state. Despite polls showing Biden leading in the state, many Democrats are still wary, since Democratic Senator Bill Nelson and gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum lost their races by slim margins in 2018 despite pre-election polls showing them leading. Democrats are trying to expand their 2018 suburban gains in places such as Sarasota and Jacksonville, while Republicans are trying to sway Cuban-American votes in southern Florida, especially in Miami-Dade County, with their campaign focusing on socialism. The retirement community of The Villages in Sumter County has usually went for Republicans by large margins, but Biden’s focus on the coronavirus may have made inroads here, and it would be very good news for Biden if he gets above 33 percent of the vote in the county (Hillary Clinton only got 29 percent). In addition, the suburban Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) will also be a bellwether. Hillary Clinton narrowly lost it by 5,500 votes (1 percent) in 2016 after trailing badly with older white voters, foreshadowing Trump’s win in the state.

Republicans control 14 out of the state’s 27 House seats, while Democrats control 13. If they flip one seat, Democrats can gain a majority in the state’s House delegation, and three Republican-held seats and three Democrat-held seats are competitive this cycle. In the 15th district (Lakeland), Republican incumbent Ross Spano, who was under investigation for campaign finance violations, lost his primary to Lakeland Commissioner Scott Franklin. Franklin now faces Democrat Alan Cohn, a former journalist who last ran in 2014 for the seat and lost. In the 16th District (Sarasota-Bradenton), incumbent Vern Buchanan is being challenged by Democratic state representative Margaret Good, and in the 18th District (Fort Pierce to Jupiter), incumbent Brian Mast faces Democrat Pam Keith, who last challenged him in 2018 and lost by 29,451 votes. For the Democrats, incumbent Representative and former Governor Charlie Crist is defending his seat against Republican Anna Paulina Luna in the 13th District (St. Petersburg). In the 26th District (Key West to southwest Miami), incumbent Debbie Mucarsel-Powell faces Republican Mayor Carlos Giménez of Miami-Dade County. In the 27th District (southern Miami), incumbent Representative and former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala again faces Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a Telemundo journalist who last ran in 2018 and lost by 15,155 votes. While Republicans’ long dominance of the state house since 1996 (due to gerrymandering) probably will not change this year, Democrats are trying to achieve a tie in the state senate by flipping three seats, which seems to be an uphill battle.

In addition, some ballot initiatives to keep an eye out for are Amendment 2, which would increase the state minimum wage to $15 by 2026; Amendment 3, which would establish a top-two open primary system for state offices (a proposal that may lead to one party being locked out due to spoilers); and Amendment 4, which would make ballot initiatives harder by requiring amendments to be approved by voters twice. Polls show that Amendment 2 is likely to pass, while the fate of Amendment 3 and Amendment 4 remains unclear.

New Hampshire

(pop. 1,360,000, 4 EV) - 8:00p EST (most towns by 7:00p EST)

Around 25 percent of New Hampshire voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by 5 p.m. on Election Day. Most results should be reported on election night, and absentee and in-person votes are reported together.

With towns administering elections, New Hampshire allows tiny towns to close polls after all registered voters have voted, leading to a tradition of midnight voting in the three northern hamlets of Dixville Notch, Millsfield, and Hart’s Location. However, Hart’s Location will not be doing midnight voting this year due to the pandemic. (This year, all of Dixville Notch’s 5 votes went to Biden, while Millsfield gave Trump 16 votes to Biden’s 5.)

Hillary Clinton won the Granite State by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2016, leading Republicans to think they may have a chance to win the state in 2020. The close results in 2016, however, was helped by a large number of third-party votes, which has collapsed since then, as evidenced by the 7.6 point swing in Democrats’ favor in the 2018 midterm House elections, with Democrats also winning back both houses of the state legislature. The state is still likely to go for Biden, though it might not be called immediately after polls close. 

Of the state’s two Democrat-held House seats, only the 1st District, encompassing the eastern part of the state and the wealthy Boston exurbs, might be competitive. There, incumbent Chris Pappas is facing a challenge from Republican Matt Mowers. New Hampshire’s Republican Governor Chris Sununu and Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen are also facing reelection, and polling indicates both are likely to be reelected. Democrats also have a chance to expand their narrow majority in the state senate, while Republicans are trying to flip three seats and regain control. Republicans are also trying to retake the state house by flipping 44 seats––the Granite State, despite its small population, has the largest state house in the country with 400 members.

West Virginia

(pop. 1,792,000, 5 EV) - 7:30p EST

Around 20 percent of West Virginia voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots will need to be received by November 9. Most votes should be counted on election night, with absentee and in-person votes reported together. However, ballots received after Election Day will not be counted until November 9.

While historically a Democratic state since the New Deal, West Virginia is now one of the most Republican states, and Trump will win the state with little doubt. Governor Jim Justice, who won in 2016 as a Democrat but switched parties in 2017, is favored to win reelection as well. Incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito is also sure to be reelected, and all three of the state’s House seats are reliably Republican. The only likely Democratic victory in the state is the Treasurer race, with Democratic incumbent John Perdue having held the office since 1997. Republicans are expected to keep both houses of the state legislature––even if Democrats can theoretically flip the state senate by winning four more seats, the odds are not good for them in the now-Republican state.

North Carolina

(pop. 10,488,000, 15 EV) - 7:30p EST

Around 30 percent of North Carolina voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots can be received up until November 12. Early in-person (around 65 percent of the vote) and processed mail-in ballots (around 20 percent of the vote) will be reported first right after polls close, while Election Day votes (around 5 percent of the vote) will come in between 8:30 p.m. and 1 a.m. Ballots received after Election Day (around 10 percent of the vote) should be reported every day. 

While the Tar Heel State has voted Republican for decades, ever since Obama’s narrow win here in 2008 (by 14,177 votes), all the subsequent presidential races have been within 4 points. While Republicans gained ground in rural areas, Democrats have made gains in the cities and the suburbs of Charlotte and Raleigh. Polling indicates that Biden has a lead here, though the actual results may be closer. Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who won his election in 2016 by 10,281 votes despite Hillary Clinton’s loss, is seeking reelection. Cooper is challenged by Republican Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest, but the incumbent governor’s popularity means that he will likely win reelection, with some polls showing him leading by double digits. 

Republican Senator Thom Tillis is also seeking reelection, but he has a much harder task running against his Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former state senator. Tillis only won the seat in 2014 by a narrow margin of 45,608 votes, and he has been deeply unpopular in the state. Cunningham consistently polls ahead, even when he was hit with a scandal where he sent romantic texts to a woman who is not his wife (polling actually shows his numbers improving after the scandal). 

With the lieutenant governor running for governor, Democratic state representative Yvonne Lewis Holley and Republican Mark Robinson are competing for the position, and both would be the first Black person in the office if elected. The secretary of state, the attorney general, and the auditor are the only other Democrats in the executive council currently. All three last won in 2016 handily, and this year will likely be the same. Democrats have a good chance of winning the treasurer race as well. In addition, while Republicans currently have narrow majorities in both houses of the state legislature, Democrats could win both if they flip six state house seats and five state senate seats.

Republicans control nine of the state’s 13 House seats, Democrats only three, and the 11th District (Asheville and the Appalachians) seat is vacant after the former Republican incumbent Mark Meadows resigned to become the White House Chief of Staff. The district map was redrawn in 2019 after state judges ruled that the old map showed “extreme partisan gerrymandering” (Democrats won 48 percent of the vote in the House elections). In the new map, five seats lean Democratic: the 1st (northeastern North Carolina), 2nd (Raleigh), 4th (Durham), 6th (Durham and Winston-Salem), and 12th (Charlotte). The Republican incumbents of the 2nd and 6th Districts are retiring, and Democrats are expected to win both seats, now reliably Democratic. 

In addition, Democrats are trying to win back control of the House delegation by flipping at least two seats. Three seats won by Republicans in 2018 now look competitive: the 8th (the Piedmont to Charlotte suburbs), 9th (the Sandhills to Charlotte suburbs), and 11th. In the 8th District, incumbent Richard Hudson faces Democrat Patricia Timmons-Goodson, a former state supreme court judge. In the 9th District, incumbent Dan Bishop is facing Democrat Cynthia Wallace. Bishop narrowly won by 2 points in a 2019 special election after ballot fraud by Republican operatives was discovered in the 2018 election. Republican Madison Cawthorn and Democrat Moe Davis, a retired Air Force colonel, are competing for the seat. Cawthorn, who gained national attention after beating Mark Meadows’ hand-picked successor in the primary, has been called a rising star in the Republican Party, and he was given a speaking slot at the Republican National Convention. He came under fire earlier this year for describing a visit to Adolf Hitler’s vacation house as a “bucket list” item. More recently, his campaign website attacked a critic for going “to work for non-white males, like Cory Booker, who aims to ruin white males running for office.” If elected, Cawthorn would become the youngest member of Congress.

Ohio

(pop. 11,689,000, 18 EV) - 7:30p EST

Around 55 percent of Ohio voters are voting early in person or by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots can be received up until November 13. Early votes and absentee ballots received prior to Election Day (around 50 percent of the vote) will be reported first by 8 p.m., followed by Election Day votes throughout the night. All ballots arriving after Election Day (less than 5 percent of the vote) will not be reported until final certification before November 28.

Obama won the Buckeye State in both 2008 and 2012, but the desertion of the state’s white working-class, once the base of the Democratic Party, helped Trump flip the state by 8 points in 2016. Even with the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won House seats across the country, the blue wave failed to materialize in Ohio. While populist and labor-friendly Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown won reelection, Republicans won all statewide executive offices, including the governorship. Despite this, it looks like Biden may be able to win back some of those working-class voters in addition to moderate Republicans (former Republican Governor John Kasich has endorsed Biden), as the two candidates are practically neck-and-neck in the latest polls. 

Republicans control 12 out of the state’s 16 House seats, and Democrats only four: the 3rd (Columbus), 9th (Toledo to Cleveland), 11th (Cleveland to Akron), and the 13th (Youngstown) Districts. In 2019, a federal court ruled that the congressional map was an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander (Democrats won 47 percent of the vote in 2018), but the Supreme Court delayed redistricting until 2022. However, Republicans likely have maxed out their House delegation, as three of their seats are competitive this cycle: the 1st (Cincinnati), 10th (Dayton), and 12th (northern Columbus suburbs) Districts. In the 1st District, the most likely to flip, incumbent Steve Chabot won in 2018 only by 13,291 votes, and he is facing Democrat Kate Schroder. In the 10th District, incumbent Michael Turner, who won by 38,769 votes in 2018, is being challenged by Democrat Desiree Tims. In the 12th District, incumbent Troy Balderson won only by 14,426 votes in 2018, and he is facing Democrat Alaina Shearer. While Republicans will keep their large majorities in both houses of the state legislature, Democrats could gain control of the seven-member state supreme court if they win both seats up for contest this year––they won two seats in 2018.

Delaware

(pop. 983,000, 3 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 35 percent of Delaware voters are voting by absentee ballot, and ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Almost all votes should be reported on election night, with absentee and in-person votes reported together.

The home state of former Vice President Joe Biden will be called for him without much doubt. Democrats are currently in command of every statewide office and both houses of the state legislature, which they are expected to keep (only the state house is up for election this year). Governor John Carney, Senator Chris Coons, and Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester are certain to win reelection as well. 

District of Columbia

(pop. 706,000, 3 EV) - 8:00p EST

Ballots are sent to all registered voters in the District, and postmarked ballots will be accepted until November 13. Early in-person (around 20 percent of the vote) and processed mail-in ballots (around 55 percent) will be reported first on election night, though it will take weeks for a final result.

DC has always voted Democratic in presidential elections, and this year will be no exception––the District will be called immediately for Biden after polls close. Eleanor Holmes Norton, the District’s non-voting delegate to Congress since 1991, will win another term. The city council will remain Democratic, but the race for the two at-large seats up for re-election will be chaotic––23 candidates are running, and the race is first-past-the-post for the top two candidates. In addition, DC voters are also voting on Initiative 81, which would decriminalize psychedelic plants like magic mushrooms.

Rhode Island

(pop. 1,059,000, 4 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 30 percent of Rhode Island voters are voting by absentee ballot, and ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. In addition, 30 percent of voters have cast their ballots early in person. With counting only beginning at poll closing time, the only results reported on election night will be from in-person voting, while mail-in ballots results are expected to be released in batches: the first with mail-in ballots received before Election Day will be reported at 11 p.m. on election night, the second with mail-in ballots received on Election Day will be reported the evening of November 4, provisional ballots will be reported on November 5, and results will be finalized on November 10.

Democrats hold all statewide offices and both House seats, as well as a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature in the Ocean State. Despite Trump making some inroads with white working-class voters in 2016, the country’s smallest state has remained one of the most Democratic states in presidential elections, and it will be called for Biden. Senator Jack Reed is likewise expected to win reelection without trouble. Also on the ballot is a measure to change the state’s official name “State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations” by dropping the “Providence Plantations” part, introduced following the George Floyd protests this summer. A similar measure was voted on in 2010 but was defeated with 78 percent of the vote, but there is a good chance of it passing this year.

Connecticut

(pop. 3,565,000, 7 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 40 percent of Connecticut voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Initial tallies that include all Election Day results and tabulated absentee votes must be reported by midnight, but final results from larger towns may take until at least November 4, with some expecting to take until November 9 to count all votes.

Democrats hold all statewide offices and control both houses of the state legislature, as well as controlling all five House seats in the Constitution State. Despite some gains made by Republicans in the state legislative race in 2016, Democrats managed to turn back the tide in 2018, and Republicans remain a minority in the state. The state will be called for Biden without much doubt, and Democrats are expected to maintain their majorities in both houses of the state legislature. 

Maryland

(pop. 6,046,000, 10 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 55 percent of Maryland voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots will be accepted up until November 13. Early in-person (around 30 percent of the vote) and processed mail-in ballots (around 45 percent of the vote) are expected to be reported first, followed by Election Day votes (around 15 percent of the vote). Ballots received after Election Day will be counted and reported every day.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican, has repeatedly clashed with the president (and also writing in Reagan for president this year). Democrats have a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature (neither up for election this year), and the influence of the suburbs of Baltimore and DC has helped Democrats win every presidential race since 1992 in the state by double digits. The Old Line State will be called for Biden with little doubt. Democrats control seven of the state’s eight House seats, some blatantly gerrymandered, and all of them being safe Democratic districts. While Kimberly Klacik, the Republican candidate for the 7th District (Baltimore) and the late Elijah Cummings’ old seat, has one of the top fundraising hauls this cycle after being promoted by Trump on Twitter, there is practically no chance of her defeating incumbent Kweisi Mfume.

Massachusetts

(pop.6,893,000, 11 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 40 percent of Massachusetts voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots need to be received by November 6. Around 25 percent are voting early in-person. Most votes should be reported on election night, but all ballots received after Election Day (around 5 percent of the vote) will not be counted until after 5 p.m. on November 6, and those ballots will be counted between then and November 9.

Despite its governor being moderate Republican Charlie Baker (who refused to support Trump’s reelection), the Bay State is one of the most Democratic states, with Democrats holding a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature and controlling all nine House seats, and will certainly be called for Biden. Senator Ed Markey, who embraced the party’s progressives and withstood a primary challenge from Rep. Joseph Kennedy III, is set to win reelection comfortably. Also on the ballot is a plan (Question 2) to enact ranked-choice voting in the state. In the 4th District’s (Newton to Fall River) nine-candidate Democratic primary to succeed Kennedy, progressive candidate Jesse Mermell had narrowly lost to moderate Jake Auchincloss 21.1 to 22.4, which could provide an impetus for progressives to support the ranked-choice voting initiative. Polls show voters leaning towards supporting the initiative, though there are enough undecided voters to prevent a sure prediction outright.

New Jersey

(pop. 8,882,000, 14 EV) - 8:00p EST

Mail-in ballots are sent to all registered voters, and postmarked ballots must be received by November 10. With counting beginning on Election Day, it will take weeks to finish counting all ballots. Mail-in ballots already received (around 75 percent of the vote) should be counted and reported first on election night, but counties are allowed to stop counting at 11 p.m. Eastern and resume the next morning. In-person votes will only be counted after November 10. Counties have until November 20 to certify the results.

The Garden State, situated between the New York and Philadelphia metropolises, has become a Democratic bastion, and it will likely be called for Biden immediately after polls close. Senator Cory Booker (a former presidential candidate) will also be cruising to reelection victory. The backlash to Trump’s policies led to a wipeout for the Republicans in the 2018 midterms, which reduced the GOP to holding only one of the state’s 12 House seats. Democrats are defending two of their gains: the 3rd (Burlington to Toms River), where incumbent Andy Kim is facing Republican David Richter, and the 7th (Phillipsburg to Millburn), where incumbent Tom Malinowski is facing Tom Kean, the Republican leader in the state senate. Democrats are also trying to take back the 2nd District (South Jersey) which includes Atlantic City. Incumbent Jeff Van Drew won the 2018 election as a Democrat, but then switched parties in December 2019. He is being challenged by Democrat Amy Kennedy. Also on the ballot is a ballot measure (Public Question 1) that would legalize marijuana, which polls show will likely pass. Democrats have large majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and neither is up for election this year.

Illinois

(pop. 12,672,000, 20 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 40 percent of Illinois voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots will be received up until November 17. Early in-person (around 30 percent of the vote) and processed mail-in ballots (around 30 percent of the vote) will be reported first in a few counties, followed by Election Day votes (around 30 percent of the vote), though most counties report both together. Ballots arriving after election day (around 10 percent of the vote) are reported every day in some counties, while others may only update once or twice.

Thanks to the dominance of Chicago, the Prairie State has been reliably Democratic in presidential elections since 1992. The home state of former President Barack Obama will most assuredly be called for Joe Biden, his former running mate, immediately after polls close. Senator Dick Durbin will likewise win reelection, and Democrats will maintain their large majorities in both houses of the state legislature. 

Democrats control 13 out of the state’s 18 House seats––with the exception of the 17th (northwest Illinois), all are around Chicago and creatively gerrymandered. Notably, conservative Democrat Dan Lipinski was successfully primaried in the 3rd District by progressive Marie Newman, who is expected to win her first election. Democrats won the 6th (west-central Chicagoland) and 14th (northwestern Chicagoland) in 2018, and are defending the two seats this time around. In the 6th, incumbent Sean Casten won by 22,556 votes in 2018, and now faces former Republican state representative Jeanne Ives. In the 14th, the most Republican-leaning district in the Chicago suburbs, incumbent Lauren Underwood won by 14,871 votes in 2018 and is challenged by Republican state senator Jim Oberweis. In addition, Democrats are also attempting to flip the 13th (west-central Illinois), which contains the state capital Springfield and the college town of Champaign-Urbana (University of Illinois). Republican incumbent Rodney Davis won only by 2,058 votes in 2018, and he is now facing Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan.

In addition, Illinoisans are voting on a ballot measure that would allow the state to enact a graduated income tax. The measure will repeal a constitutional requirement, in place since 1970, that requires the state’s personal income tax to be a flat rate. Democrats support the measure, while Republicans are against. Polls show that the measure is likely to pass.

Tennessee

(pop. 6,829,000, 11 EV) - 8:00p EST

Less than 10 percent of Tennessee voters are voting by absentee ballot, and the ballots must be received by poll closing time. Around 70 percent of voters, however, have cast their ballots early in person. Absentee votes are reported first in most counties, while the rest report absentee and in-person votes together. Most counties should finish reporting by midnight.

The Volunteer State (and home of Al Gore) was once a swing state, but ever since 2000, it has been solidly Republican in presidential elections, with only the cities of Memphis and Nashville remaining Democratic. As such, it would be no surprise for the state to be immediately called for Trump after polls close. Senator Lamar Alexander is not running for reelection, and there is little doubt to Bill Hagerty, a former ambassador to Japan, succeeding him. Republicans control seven of the state’s nine House seats, and Democrats only the 5th (Nashville) and 9th (Memphis). None of the seats are competitive this cycle. Republicans will maintain their supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature.

Alabama

(pop. 4,903,000, 9 EV) - 8:00p EST

Only around 10 percent of Alabama voters are voting by absentee ballot, and ballots must be postmarked by November 2 and received by noon on Election Day. All results should be reported on election night.

With Democrats rarely winning outside the Black Belt and the suburbs of Birmingham since 1976, Alabama will likely be called for Trump immediately after polls close. Democratic Senator Doug Jones is facing an uphill reelection battle against Republican Tommy Tuberville. In a historic upset, Jones narrowly won the seat in the 2017 special election to replace Jeff Sessions against former state supreme court Chief Justice Roy Moore, who was accused of making sexual advances towards teenage girls. While he enjoys strong support from Alabama’s large Black population (from his prosecution of Ku Klux Klan members for the Civil Rights era 16th Street Baptist Church bombing in the early 2000s) as well as college-educated and suburban whites, it might not be enough to help him win reelection. Republicans control six out of the state’s seven House seats, while Democrats only control the majority-Black 7th District (central Alabama). None of the seats are expected to be competitive. Republicans have supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and neither is up for election this year.

Mississippi

(pop. 2,976,000, 6 EV)  - 8:00p EST

Around 20 percent of Mississippi voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots will be received up until November 10. Most of the votes should be reported on election night, and the miniscule amount of ballots arriving later will be very small.

More than 80 percent of white voters are loyal Republican voters, and more than 90 percent of Black voters are loyal Democratic voters in the Magnolia State. Despite the state having the highest proportion of African Americans in the nation, it has not been competitive in presidential elections since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. As such, the reliably Republican state will be called for Trump immediately after polls close. 

Mike Espy, a Democrat and the first African-American Secretary of Agriculture under Bill Clinton, lost by 65,950 votes (7 points) in the 2018 Senate special election against Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith. Espy is once again running against Hyde-Smith in this year’s election, but while polls show a closer margin, Hyde-Smith is still favored to win. Republicans control three of the state’s four House seats, while Democrats control the majority-Black 2nd District (Jackson to Mississippi Delta). All four seats are not competitive. Republicans have supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and neither is up for election this year.

Also on the ballot are three ballot measures. Measure 1 would legalize medical marijuana. Measure 2 would remove the “electoral college” system in the statewide race, which requires candidates to win both the popular vote and a majority of state house districts (the state house chooses the winner if no candidate wins both), a relic from the Jim Crow era. Measure 3 would adopt the new design for the state flag after the old flag containing the Confederate battle flag was removed during the George Floyd protests. Polls show that all three are likely to pass.

Oklahoma

(pop. 3,957,000, 7 EV)  - 8:00p EST

Around 20 percent of Oklahoma voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Early in-person votes (around 10 percent of the vote) are typically reported first, followed by mail-in votes and then Election Day votes. All counties are expected to finish reporting on election night.

Oklahoma has not voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since Lyndon B. Johnson’s win here in 1968 (and no Democrat since Al Gore in 2000 has won a single county here), and thus the state will probably be immediately called for Trump after polls close. (Though with Oklahoma City trending left, Biden might be able to win Oklahoma County.) Likewise, incumbent Republican Senator Jim Inhofe is expected to win his sixth term as well. Republicans hold four House seats out of five, and only the Democrat-held 5th District (Oklahoma City) is competitive. Incumbent Kendra Horn won the seat in 2018 by 3,338 votes in a surprise upset, and she is facing Republican state senator Stephanie Bice this year. Republicans are expected to keep their supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature.

Missouri

(pop. 6,137,000, 10 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 25 percent of Missouri voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Most counties release absentee votes first, followed by Election Day votes later in the evening, and nearly all results should be reported on election night.

Missouri was long held to be a bellwether state in the 20th century, but in 2008 the state narrowly went for John McCain, and the Show Me State has only become more Republican since then. With the 2018 defeat of Senator Claire McCaskill, one of the last remaining elected Democrats, the Republican transformation of Missouri is complete. The state should be called for Trump soon after polls close. 

Governor Mike Parson, who was elevated to the office after former Governor Eric Greitens’ resignation in 2018. (Greitens resigned after allegations of him blackmailing his mistress surfaced and the state legislature moved to impeach him.) Parson will likely win his reelection against State Auditor Nicole Galloway, the state’s only Democratic statewide official. However, the contest is expected to be close due to the governor’s mishandling of the coronavirus crisis, with him still refusing to issue a statewide mask mandate after contracting COVID-19 in late September.

Republicans control six out of the state’s eight House seats, while Democrats control only the 1st (St. Louis) and 5th (Kansas City) Districts. Lacy Clay, the 10-term incumbent in the 1st District was defeated by progressive Cori Bush in the primary, and Bush is poised to become the first Black woman representative from Missouri. Democrats could make gains in the 2nd District (St. Louis suburbs), where Republican incumbent Ann Wagner only won by 14,866 votes in 2018 and is now practically tied in polls with her Democratic challenger, state senator Jill Schupp, but that is the only potential gain. Republicans are expected to keep their supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature.

While Democrats could make some gains in both houses of the state legislature, both are expected to remain under Republican control. And even though Democrats are largely excluded from government, some progressive reforms are still able to pass through ballot measures, with voters in 2018 rejecting a right-to-work law, legalizing medical marijuana, raising the minimum wage to $12 by 2023, and approving the “Clean Missouri” plan, which handed redistricting to a nonpartisan demographer. This year, voters passed an initiative (Amendment 2) in August expanding Medicaid coverage under the Affordable Care Act, and in November they will be voting on Amendment 1, which will set a two-term limit for all other state officials (the governor is already term-limited), and the Republican-backed Amendment 3, which seeks to repeal the “Clean Missouri” plan by cloaking it in the language of ethics reforms.

Maine

(pop. 1,344,000, 4 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 65 percent of Maine voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Absentee and Election Day votes are reported together, and most results should be reported on election night. However if no candidate wins a majority of first-place votes, officials will need to count up second choices, third choices, etc. days after Election Day under Maine’s ranked-choice voting.

Maine has a reputation for political quirkiness––it held state elections in September until 1958, giving rise to the saying “As Maine goes, so does the nation” (until it voted for a Republican governor in the 1936 election), adopted ranked-choice voting in 2016, and splits its electoral votes by giving two to the winner of the state and one to the winner of each of its two congressional districts. The method was adopted in 1969 as part of a nationwide push for electoral reforms after the three-way presidential election of 1968. Like the rest of New England, Maine has been reliably Democratic statewide since 1992, and both of its district votes have always gone to the Democratic candidate until 2016. And while Republicans are trying to end the Democratic trifecta by flipping four seats in the state senate, both the state senate and the state house are likely going to remain Democratic.

While the 1st District (southern Maine) is liberal due to its inclusion of Portland and the state capital Augusta, the 2nd District (central-northern Maine) is much more rural and working-class. Trump won the 2nd District in 2016 due to its voters’ economic woes, but Biden is poised to win it back this year. Democrats control both of the state’s House seats, and the 2nd District’s incumbent Jared Golden is poised to win reelection with a majority of the votes against former Republican state representative Dale Craft––a huge improvement from 2018. (Golden was initially behind by 2,171 votes in 2018, but due to no candidate winning a majority, the independent candidates’ votes were redistributed, and Golden ended up in the lead by 3,509 votes.)

Republican Senator Susan Collins is facing a tough reelection, and polls slightly favor her Democratic challenger, speaker of the state house Sara Gideon, by around 1 percent, though most polls do not show any candidate winning a majority outright in the first round. Collins, a moderate who is the last remaining Republican in Congress from New England, was first elected in 1996 and re-elected twice, even as the state remained reliably Democratic in presidential elections. Yet her vote in favor of confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has created a furious reaction from the left, reducing her support in the state. The race could take until the redistribution of voters’ third-choices to be decided––independent conservative Max Linn polls around 1 percent, and independent green Lisa Savage around 5 percent (Linn asked supporters to put Savage as their second choice, while Savage asked supporters to put Gideon as their second).

Pennsylvania

(pop. 12,802,000, 20 EV) - 8:00p EST

Around 45 percent of Pennsylvania voters are voting early in person or by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots will be received up until November 6. Counting only starts at 7 a.m. on Election Day, which means it would take a while for the results to be known. Absentee ballots arriving after Election Day will likely comprise less than 10 percent of the vote. Most major counties will be counting both absentee and Election Day votes together, but some are only counting absentee votes after the Election Day tally is complete. The outcome of the election will however be known by November 23, the deadline for counties to stop counting.

Once a reliable part of the Democrats’ “Blue Wall” since 1988, the Keystone State’s stunning backing of Trump in 2016 (by 44,292 votes) cemented his victory. While Hillary Clinton won the suburbs of Philadelphia, it was not enough to offset Trump’s gains in western and northeastern Pennsylvania. Democrats however staged a comeback in 2018, when the Democrat-dominated state supreme court ordered the congressional district map to be redrawn, and pulled into a tie in the House delegation, while Democratic Governor Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey were reelected by double digits. With Biden being from Scranton and consistently polling ahead, it seems that he too may be able to reverse Trump’s victory in the state. There are several major counties that expect to finish counting most of their votes on election night or the day later, which could be indicators for the rest of the state. Erie County, which Hillary Clinton lost by 1,957 votes, and Northampton County (Easton), which she lost by 5,464 votes, will help tell whether Biden is performing as well as his polling indicates.

Democrats and Republicans each control nine seats out of the state’s 18 House seats. Democrats are defending two of their gains that went for Trump in 2016: the 8th (northeast Pennsylvania) and the 17th (Pittsburgh suburbs), though polling favors them in both. Incumbent Matt Cartwright in the 8th District polls ahead of his Republican opponent, former Trump administration official Jim Bognet (polling also shows Biden ahead in the district). Incumbent Conor Lamb in the 17th also seems likely to fend off his Republican challenger Sean Parnell. While the 7th District (Lehigh Valley) only narrowly went for Clinton, Democratic incumbent Susan Wild is in no serious danger of losing. Democrats are also trying to gain control of the House delegation by flipping at least one other seat, and opportunity seems available in the 1st (northern Philadelphia suburbs) and 10th (south-central Pennsylvania) Districts. Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick won by only 8,308 votes in 2018, and is facing Democrat Christina Finello. In the 10th District, which encompasses the state capital Harrisburg, Republican incumbent Scott Perry won by only 7,697 votes in 2018, and is challenged by Democratic Auditor General Eugene DePasquale. While Republican incumbent Mike Kelly won only by 11,239 votes in the 16th District (Northwest Pennsylvania), the district still comfortably remains Republican. 

In the race to succeed DePasquale as auditor general between Democrat Nina Ahmad and Republican Tim DeFoor, either would become the first person of color elected statewide in Pennsylvania, though Ahmad is likely to win. Democrats are also trying to gain control of both houses of the state legislature––they need to flip nine seats for the state house, and four seats for the state senate.

South Dakota

(pop. 885,000, 3 EV) - 8:00p EST (C) / 9:00p EST (M)

Around 35 percent of South Dakota voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time. In addition, around 20 percent of voters have voted early in person. Most of the results should be reported on election night after the last polls close, though Minnehaha County (Sioux Falls) expects to finish counting on November 4.

The Mount Rushmore State has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964, and it has since become one of the most reliably Republican states in the country. As such, there is little doubt that the state will be called immediately for Trump after polls close. Incumbent Senator Mike Rounds will also be cruising to a second term. Republicans control all statewide offices, and they are expected to maintain their holds on the at-large House seat and the supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature. South Dakotans are also voting for several ballot measures, including Constitutional Amendment A, which would legalize recreational use of marijuana, and Initiated Measure 26, which provides for a medical marijuana program in the state. Polls show that both are likely to pass.

Kansas

(pop. 2,913,000, 6 EV) - 8:00p EST (C) / 9:00p EST (M)

Almost 40 percent of Kansas voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots will be received up until November 6. Typically early in-person (around 30 percent of the vote) and some mail-in votes will be reported first, followed by Election Day votes (around 30 percent of the vote) on election night. Absentee votes arriving later (around 5 percent) will be reported each day.

Trump won Kansas with 56 percent of the vote in 2016, but Democrats have gained ground since then, winning the race for governor in 2018 as well as flipping the 3rd District (Kansas City), which will likely remain blue this year. While Trump leads in the polls––and the state will likely be called for him some time after polls close––the Democratic candidate for Senate, state Senator Barbara Bollier, is having a strong showing. Bollier, a former moderate Republican who switched parties in 2018, is neck-and-neck with Republican Representative Roger Marshall from the 1st District (western Kansas) in the race to succeed retiring incumbent Pat Roberts. While Republicans control three out of the state’s four House seats, Democrats are trying to tie the House delegation by flipping the 2nd District (Topeka), where incumbent Steve Watkins lost his primary after he was charged with voter fraud. Democrat Michelle De La Isla, the mayor of Topeka, is now facing Republican State Treasurer Jake LaTurner in the race. Democrats are also trying to break the Republicans’ supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature––they need to flip one seat in the state house and two in the state senate.

Texas

(pop. 28,996,000, 38 EV) - 8:00p EST (C) / 9:00p EST (M)

Less than 10 percent of Texas voters are voting by absentee ballot due to the state having one of the strictest voting laws in the country, with postmarked ballots needing to be received by November 4. Despite this, early voting numbers have already surpassed the total votes received in 2016. Early in-person (around 75 percent of the total) and absentee votes received by poll closing time are reported first, followed by Election Day votes. The minuscule number of mail-in ballots that arrive the day after will likely be reported the same day.

Democrats have long hoped to turn Texas blue with the shifting demographics, and with Democrats making advances in the suburbs in 2018 thanks to Democrat (and former presidential candidate) Beto O’Rourke’s Senate campaign, and early in-person voter turnout breaking records this year, it may very well be the election to do so, as Biden and Trump are virtually tied in the polls here. While Democratic challenger MJ Hegar is attempting to unseat Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, polls show her underperforming Biden’s polling numbers, possibly due to her having lower name recognition. 

Republicans control 23 of the state’s 36 House seats, and Democrats just 13 in spite of getting 47 percent of the vote in 2018. Yet even with the gerrymandering, Democrats came close to flipping several seats in 2018, and may do so this year. Democrats are defending two of the seats they won in 2018: the 7th (west Houston) and 32nd (north Dallas), which will likely remain Democratic. Incumbent Lizzie Fletcher won by 12,317 votes (5 points) in 2018 in the 7th District, and is facing Republican Weslie Hunt this year. In the 32nd District, incumbent Colin Allred, who won by 17,966 votes (6 points) in 2018, is challenged by Republican Genevieve Collins. 

In addition, Democrats are trying to get at least a tie in the House delegation by flipping at least five seats, and they have ten Republican districts that are potentially competitive. Four are likely long shots. In the 2nd District (west Houston to northern suburbs), the eye patch-wearing incumbent Dan Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL, won by 19,196 votes (7 points) in 2018 in the heavily gerrymandered district. Crenshaw made national headlines due to the NBC comedy show “Saturday Night Live” mocking his eye patch and then inviting him on the show to apologize a week before the 2018 elections. Democrats are running attorney Sima Ladjevardian to challenge Crenshaw this year in what has become the most expensive House race in the state. The 3rd District (Plano) in the northern suburbs of Dallas has incumbent Van Taylor winning by 31,286 votes (10 points) in 2018, and he is challenged by Democrat Lulu Seikaly. Seikaly is Lebanese-American, which could appeal to voters in a district that has a growing Asian-American population. And in the 6th District (southwest Metroplex), which encompasses Arlington, incumbent Ron Wright won by 19,611 votes (6 points) in 2018, and he is facing Democrat Stephen Daniel. In the 25th District (Austin to Fort Worth), incumbent Roger Williams won by 26,638 (8 points) against Democrat Julie Oliver in 2018, and the two are having a rematch this year. 

Six other seats are more favorable to the Democrats. In the 10th District (Austin to Houston), incumbent Michael McCaul narrowly won by 13,132 votes (4 points) against Mike Siegel in an unexpectedly competitive race, and the two are facing off again this year. In the 21st District (San Antonio to Austin), incumbent Chip Roy, a conservative firebrand who won by just 9,233 votes (2 points) in 2018, is being challenged by former Democratic state senator Wendy Davis. Davis, a liberal icon, achieved national attention for her filibuster against an abortion bill in 2013, subsequently running for governor in 2014 against Greg Abbott but was defeated by 21 points. In the 22nd District (southern Texas suburbs), Pete Olson narrowly won by just 14,597 votes (4 points) against Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni, a former foreign service officer. With Olson retiring, Kulkarni is once again running this year, and is facing Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls in the state’s second-most-expensive House race. In the majority-Hispanic 23rd (San Antonio and West Texas) District, incumbent Will Hurd, a moderate Republican, won by just 926 votes against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, a former intelligence officer. Hurd is retiring this year, Jones will likely win against Republican Tony Gonzalez. In the 24th District (Fort Worth suburbs), incumbent Kenny Marchant is retiring after winning by just 8,086 votes (3 points) in 2018. Democrat Candance Valenzuela and former Irving mayor, Republican Beth Van Duyne, are competing for the open seat. And in the 31st District (central Texas), incumbent John Carter was challenged in 2018 by MJ Hegar and narrowly won by 8,318 votes (3 points) due to getting outspent by Hegar. Though Carter probably has a slightly easier time this election against Democrat Donna Imam, as he is outspending Imam this time around.

While the state senate is likely to remain under Republican control, Democrats would be able to win the state house if they flip nine seats, which could give them a bargaining chip in the redistricting. Democrats also have a chance to flip the state board of education, where eight of 15 seats are up for election. In addition, a Democrat could win a seat on the three-member Railroad Commission that oversees the state’s oil and gas policies, with huge implications for climate and energy policies.

Michigan

(pop. 9,884,000, 16 EV) - 8:00p EST (E) / 9:00p EST (C)

Around 55 percent of Michigan voters are voting early in-person or by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Ballot processing begins the day before in some jurisdictions, with most only starting on Election Day. As such, full unofficial results could take until November 6.

Michigan, a part of the Democrats’ “Blue Wall” that has not voted Republican for president since 1988, gave Trump a surprise victory by just 10,704 votes, or 0.23 percent. Many factors have been blamed for Hillary Clinton’s loss, from low enthusiasm of labor unions and African-American voters to poor organization of the Clinton campaign. Yet Democrats turned the tide in 2018, with their candidate for governor Gretchen Whitmer winning the race by 9 points. Biden polls comfortably and consistently ahead in the state, and with Trump repeatedly attacking the popular governor, he is likely doing himself no favors in the state. Democratic Senator Gary Peters is also having an expensive reelection campaign against Republican John James, who is aiming to become the state’s first African-American senator. James last ran against Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow in 2018, and lost by 6.5 points, and polling indicates that he is likely heading for defeat once again, despite his efforts to distance himself from Trump.

Democrats control seven of the state’s 14 seats, and Republicans six. Democrats are defending their two gains in 2018: the 8th (Detroit exurbs to Lansing) and 11th (central Detroit suburbs) Districts. In the 8th District, incumbent Elissa Slotkin became the first Democrat to win the district since 2000 with her victory by 13,098 votes (4 points) in 2018, and she is facing Republican Paul Junge this year. In the 11th, incumbent Haley Stevens likewise took control of a suburban district that Republicans had held for decades by 23,449 votes (7 points) in 2018, and is now facing Republican Eric Esshaki. The two, however, are likely to be reelected.

Democrats are also trying to gain a majority in the House delegation, and one of the most likely seats to flip is the 3rd District (west-central Michigan), held by Libertarian Justin Amash. Amash, a former Republican, who broke with Trump and voted to impeach the president earlier this year. With Amash retiring this year, Republican Peter Meijer, a member of the billionaire Meijer family, and Democrat Hillary Scholten are competing for the seat. If Biden won the state by large margins, Scholten could benefit from it in the district, which includes Grand Rapids, the state’s second-largest city. In addition, incumbent Fred Upton in the 6th District (southwest Michigan), which encompasses Kalamazoo, is challenged by Democratic state representative Jon Hoadley, and Upton had only won by 13,354 votes (4 points) in 2018. In the 7th District (southern Michigan), incumbent Tim Walberg won by 22,400 votes (8 points) against former Democratic state representative Gretchen Driskell in 2018, much closer than in 2016 when Driskell ran and lost by 15 points. Driskell is having her third rematch against Walberg this year, though it is likely a long shot.

Republicans control slim majorities in both houses of the state legislature as a result of gerrymandering. Democrats, however, have a good chance of flipping the state house this year (the state senate is not up for election this year)––they need to flip just four. Democrats also have a chance to flip the state supreme court with two seats up for reelection if they flip one and defend the other.

Arkansas

(pop. 3,018,000, 6 EV) - 8:30p EST

Only around 10 percent of Arkansas voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Around 60 percent of the vote is cast early. Early and absentee votes are reported first, and unofficial results should be available by the end of the night.

The home state of former President Bill Clinton has since become one of the most reliably Republican states in the South, and it will be called for Trump. Republican Senator Tom Cotton is running without a Democratic challenger, a stark departure from 2008, when then Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran without a Republican opponent, marking the decline of the state’s Democratic Party since then. Cotton is challenged by Libertarian Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., who will probably receive the highest vote share of any statewide Libertarian candidate in American history. Republicans hold all four of the state’s House seats, and only the 2nd District (Little Rock), where incumbent French Hill is being challenged by Democrat Joyce Elliott, appears to be competitive. Republicans will however keep their supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature.

New York

(pop. 19,454,000, 29 EV) - 9:00p EST

Around 30 percent of New York voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots need to be received by November 10. Only unofficial results from in-person early voting (around 30 percent of the vote) and Election Day (around 40 percent of the vote) will be released on election night. Absentee ballots are not counted until November 6, and it could take weeks before the final results are available due to the state’s large population.

Despite what Trump insists, New York is not in play. Trump’s former home state went for Hilary Clinton (also of New York) by a comfortable 22.5 point margin, and it has not voted for a Republican since Reagan in 1984. The Empire State will be called for Biden immediately after polls close.

Democrats control 21 of the state’s 27 House seats, and Republicans only six. Democrats made gains in the 2018 midterms, and they will be defending the three seats they won: the 11th (Staten Island and south Brooklyn), 19th (central Hudson Valley), and 22nd (central New York). Incumbent Max Rose in the 11th District achieved a surprise win by 12,382 votes (6 points), flipping Staten Island, the most conservative New York borough. He is facing Republican state representative Nicole Malliotakis for his reelection. In the 22nd District, incumbent Anthony Brindisi narrowly won by 4,473 votes in 2018, flipping a district that went for Trump by 15 points with the help of the cities of Binghamton and Utica. Both races are considered tossups. In comparison, incumbent Antonio Delgado in the 19th District faces an easier reelection, having won by 15,000 votes (5 points) in 2018 in a district that went for Obama twice. 

In addition, Democrats have a good chance at flipping three Republican seats: the 1st (eastern Long Island), 2nd (central Long Island), and 24th (Syracuse). The 1st and 2nd Districts in the wealthy Long Island suburbs have long been Republican, but suburban defection to the Democrats could change the equation. Incumbent Lee Zeldin in the 1st District won by just 11,036 votes (4 points) in 2018, a significant decrease from his 16-point victory in 2016, and he is facing Democrat Nancy Goroff this year. In the 2nd District, 14-term incumbent Pete King (infamous for his past support of the IRA) is retiring, having won by only 15,004 votes (7 points) in 2018 after getting a 24-point win in 2016. State representative Andrew Garbarino is running against Democrat Jackie Gordon in the race to succeed King. Along with the two, the 24th District’s incumbent, moderate Republican John Katko, only narrowly held on by 13,694 votes (5 points) in 2018 against Democrat Dana Balter, having won by 22 points in 2016. The district went to Obama by double digits and Clinton by 4 points, and Katko had refused to endorse or vote for Trump in 2016, but with the unpopular president once again on the ticket, Katko’s political survival could be in doubt in his rematch against Balter this year.

All other incumbents are all likely to win, including Republican Elise Stefanik in the 21st District (northern New York), which had gone for Obama by 6 points in 2012 but Trump by 14 points in 2016. Stefanik, a rising star in her party, won reelection by 14 points in 2018 against Democrat Tebra Cobb. Cobb is once again challenging Stefanik this year, but Stefanik is outraising her in the expensive race. And despite the 14th District (Bronx and Queens) being the second-most expensive House race in the nation (due to all the resentment she drew from Republicans), Democratic incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who broke Stefanik’s record as the youngest woman elected to Congress, is certain to win without trouble in her deep blue district. Democrat Sean Maloney’s 18th District (Lower Hudson Valley) narrowly went to Trump by 2 points after Obama won it by 4, but Maloney’s double-digit wins in 2016 and 2018 means he is expected to win. Other prominent Democratic representatives including House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries in the 8th District (Brooklyn) and Judiciary Committee chair Jerry Nadler in the 10th (Lower Manhattan and south Brooklyn) will also be reelected. In addition, 16-term incumbent and Foreign Affairs Committee chair Eliot Engel in the 16th District (northern Bronx and southern Westchester County) lost his primary to his progressive challenger Jamaal Bowman in a stunning upset, and Bowman will be winning his first election in the reliably Democratic district.

The fate of New York’s progressive Working Families Party (WFP) is also on the ballot. New York has fusion voting, which allows major-party candidates to run on third-party ballot lines. Under new rules passed in 2019, those minor parties will now need 130,000 votes or 2 percent of the final vote, whichever is higher, to have automatic ballot access. Many prominent Democratic politicians, including Senators Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Elizabeth Warren as well as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have encouraged New York voters to vote for the Biden/Harris ticket on the WFP ballot line.

Democrats managed to gain control of the state senate in 2018 for the first time in eight years (the Independent Democratic Conference, a group of rogue Democrats, had caucused with the Republicans, giving Republicans control of the state senate until they were defeated in 2018 primaries). Democrats are trying to get supermajorities in the state senate and the state house, and with Democrat Andrew Cuomo being the governor, it would be the first time in over a century that the Democrats control a trifecta in time for redistricting.

Louisiana

(pop. 4,649,000, 8 EV) - 9:00p EST

Less than 10 percent of Louisiana voters are voting by absentee ballot, and absentee ballots need to be received by November 2. However, around 40 percent of voters have cast their ballots early in person.With most votes cast in person, almost all votes should be reported on election night,

The Democratic Party has long struggled to win a national-level race in the Pelican State, where anti-abortion Governor John Bel Edwards is the only Democrat to currently hold statewide office. It can thus be safely assumed that the state will be called for Trump once polls close. Republicans control five out of the state’s six House seats; Democrats hold only the 2nd District (New Orleans), and none of them are competitive. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise in the 1st District (southeast Louisiana) has raised the most money for any House candidate (using it for other Republican candidates), and he is expected to win without trouble. A jungle primary for the Senate is held on Election Day, with a runoff election to be held on December 5 if no candidate receives a majority of the votes, a likely scenario given that there are two Republicans, five Democrats, one Libertarian, and seven independents on the ballot. Incumbent Senator Bill Cassidy however is the favorite to win. Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins is the most likely Democrat to get into a runoff if there is one.

Republicans have large majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and neither is up for election this year. Louisianans are also voting on several ballot measures, including Amendment 1, which would declare in the state constitution that there is no right to abortion or abortion funding, and Amendment 5, which would allow local governments to negotiate with businesses to give them tax exemptions in exchange for direct payments.

Minnesota

(pop. 5,640,000, 10 EV) - 9:00p EST

Around 60 percent of Minnesota voters are voting early in person or by absentee ballot. Originally state rules allow postmarked ballots to be received up until November 10, but ongoing litigation may lead to ballots received after Election Day being invalidated, pending judicial review. Requested mail-in ballots accounting for 10 percent of the vote have still not yet been turned in. Almost all ballots received prior to Election Day are expected to be reported on election night.

Minnesota is a stalwart Democratic state in presidential elections, voting for a Democrat in every presidential election since Nixon’s 1972 landslide, even when Reagan swept the country in a 49-state landslide in 1984 (though that is largely due to having native son Walter Mondale on the ballot). The state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), one of the two-state Democratic parties with a different name, has also held every statewide elected post since 2010. Blue-collar ancestral Democrats in rural northern Minnesota have moved away from the party, leading to Hillary Clinton winning the state by only 44,765 votes (1.5 points) in 2016, but this is offset by subsequent Democratic gains in the suburbs of the Twin Cities. The DFL improved their numbers in the 2018 midterms when Senator Klobuchar won reelection by 24 points, appointed Senator Tina Smith won her special election by 11 points, and Representative Tim Walz from the 1st District (southern Minnesota) won the governor’s race by 12 points. While some Democrats have worried that the George Floyd protests this summer would hurt their numbers in the North Star State, there is no indication of this in pollings. The state is likely to be called for Biden some time after polls close. Senator Tina Smith, up for regular election this year, is expected to win without much trouble. Democrats are expected to keep their majority in the state house, and have a good chance of taking the state senate if they flip just two seats.

The DFL controls five out of the state’s eight House seats. Democrats won one seat in 2018 but lost another one, and both are expected to be safe this cycle. The 8th District’s (northeastern Minnesota) Republican incumbent Pete Stauber won by 6 points in 2018 in the Iron Range, a traditionally Democratic blue-collar region that has gone to Trump in 2016. Despite Duluth, the largest city in the district, being reliably Democratic, Stauber will likely keep his seat with Trump on the ticket this year. In the 2nd District (south Twin Cities suburbs), the death of Legal Marijuana Now party candidate had briefly thrown the race into confusion. The third party has major-party status in Minnesota due to its candidate for auditor surpassing 5 percent of the vote in 2018, which in turn triggered a law concerning a major-party candidate dying close to an election that delayed the race to February. However, a court ruling blocked the delay, and the race is back on schedule. Democratic incumbent Angie Craig, who won by 18,614 votes (6 points) in 2018, is expected to win re-election against Republican Tyler Kistner. In addition, even though her Republican opponent is waging an expensive challenge, Democratic incumbent Ilhan Omar is sure to win reelection without much trouble in the 5th District (Minneapolis).

Furthermore, Democrats are seeking to maintain their majority by flipping the 1st District (southern Minnesota) and defending the 7th (western Minnesota). Republican incumbent Jim Hagedorn in the 1st District, which includes the city of Rochester, narrowly won by just 1,315 votes (0.5 points) against Dan Feehan, and the two are having a rematch this year. Conservative Democratic incumbent and Agriculture Committee Chair Collin Peterson won in 2018 by 12,004 votes (4 points), and he is facing Republican Lieutenant Governor Michelle Fischbach this year. Peterson had consistently won reelection in the heavily Republican district (which went for Trump by 30 points), even during the Republican wave year of 2010, but it could be a tough challenge for him this year. Both races are rated as tossups.

Nebraska

(pop. 1,934,000, 5 EV) - 9:00p EST

Around 60 percent of Nebraska voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Almost all votes are expected to be reported on election night, with early votes reported first and followed by Election Day results.

In an attempt to make itself more relevant on the national stage, Nebraska changed its winner-take-all rule for electors to allocating it by the winner of its congressional districts in 1991, with two votes for the winner of the state and one for each district’s winner. That did not exactly pan out, since Republican presidential candidates who won the state in subsequent elections also swept all three districts, with the exception of 2008 when Barack Obama won the 2nd District (Omaha). However, while Trump is expected to win the state this year, Biden will likely be able to repeat Obama’s performance in the 2nd District. If Biden wins the district, it would be good news for progressive Democrat Kara Eastman, who is challenging incumbent Republican Don Bacon this year. Eastman last challenged Bacon in 2018 and narrowly lost by 4,945 votes (2 points). Republicans currently control all three districts, and the other two are safely Republican. Incumbent Republican Senator Ben Sasse is expected to win reelection without trouble. Republicans will also keep their de-facto majority in the officially-nonpartisan unicameral state legislature. Nebraskans are voting on a series of ballot measures as well, including Amendment 1, which would remove language allowing slavery as a punishment for crime from the state constitution.

Wisconsin

(pop. 5,822,000, 10 EV) - 9:00p EST

Around 45 percent of Wisconsin voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. 20 percent of voters have cast their ballots early in person. In-person votes are reported first in some municipalities, including Milwaukee, while most places report absentee and Election Day votes together. The absentee votes in municipalities counting them separately will likely be reported toward the end of the night. Results are expected on election night or by noon November 4 at the latest.

Following a solidly Democratic record since 1988 and becoming part of the Democrats’ “Blue Wall,” Wisconsin broke its streak in 2016 when the Badger State elected Trump by just 22,748 votes, or 0.4 percent. Hillary Clinton’s loss of Wisconsin in 2016 is largely blamed on her “absentee” campaigning there—she didn’t return to the state after she lost the Democratic primaries to Bernie Sanders in April 2016. The lesson has been learned, with Biden recently holding his third rally in the state just over a week before the election. The state’s most recent shift to the right largely began in 2010 with the election of Republican Governor Scott Walker, who enacted several conservative policies during his eight years in office, but Walker’s loss in the 2018 gubernatorial elections to Democrat Tony Evers reaffirms Wisconsin’s new identity as a battleground state, making it pivotal to Trump’s reelection bid. Even with recent polling indicating that Biden enjoys a wide lead in support in the state, many Democrats still have painful flashbacks to 2016.

Republicans control five of the state’s eight House seats, and Democrats only three. Wisconsin has one of the country’s worst cases of gerrymandering––Democrats had won the popular vote for the 2018 House elections with 53 percent of the vote––and the result is not expected to change this cycle as well. The only potentially competitive race is the Democrat-held 3rd District (west-central Wisconsin), encompassing Eau Claire and La Crosse. The district was one of the few rural districts that went for Obama (by 11 points) in 2012, but it voted for Trump by 5 points in 2016. Incumbent Ron Kind, a moderate Democrat who won handily by 19 points in 2018 and ran unopposed in 2016, is facing Republican Derrick Van Orden this year.

With Democrat Tony Evers now the governor, Republicans are trying to expand their majorities in both houses of the state legislature to veto-proof supermajorities, which would require flipping three seats in each chamber. Both houses are likely remaining Republican even with a strong showing for Biden due to the gerrymandered districts. Even with a closer margin in the state senate, Democrats are also defending a couple of vulnerable seats –– the best Democrats can hope for is small gains in each house.

Arizona

(pop. 7,279,000, 11 EV) - 9:00p EST

Around 85 percent of Arizona voters are voting early in-person or by absentee ballot (mostly the latter), and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Early and absentee votes received before Election Day (around 80 percent of the vote) will be reported first shortly after 10 p.m. Eastern, and all Election Day votes (around 15 percent of the vote) are also expected to be reported on election night. Absentee ballots received on Election Day (around 5 percent of the vote) will not be reported until November 5 or 6.

The home state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain has been a conservative stronghold for decades, having voted for a Republican in every presidential election since 1952 except for 1996, when Bill Clinton narrowly won the state by 2 points. But as the Arizona electorate becomes more diverse, the Grand Canyon State has become more competitive in presidential elections, with Hillary Clinton losing the state only by 3.5 points in 2016. In order to win the state, Democrats will need to get at least close to a draw in Maricopa County (where around 60 percent of the state’s population resides), a large turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Pima County (Tucson), and hold down losses in the rest of the state––a formula followed by Bill Clinton in 1996. Polls indicate that Biden is the favorite here, being endorsed by Cindy McCain (the widow of John McCain) and former Republican Senator Jeff Flake. Trump’s frequent attacks on McCain and Flake when they were in office probably do him no favors here. 

Republican Senator Martha McSally, who is running for reelection this year, lost by 55,900 votes (2 points) when she ran against Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in 2018 for Flake’s seat. She was then appointed by Republican Governor Doug Ducey to McCain’s old seat after caretaker Senator Jon Kyl resigned. Former astronaut Mark Kelly, McSally’s Democratic challenger and the husband of former Representative Gabrielle Gifford, consistently polls ahead of Biden’s numbers in the state, which suggests that he will be the favorite to win the election. There has been a long history between McSally and the Giffords family––McSally first ran for office in 2012 to fill Gifford’s seat against Gifford’s former aide Ron Barber, after the congresswoman was grievously wounded in a 2011 mass shooting in Tucson. McSally narrowly lost by 2,454 votes, and then in a 2014 rematch, she narrowly won by just 161 votes.  

Democrats control five of the state’s nine House seats. Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick flipped the 2nd District (Tucson), McSally’s old district, by 9.5 points, and the seat is safe for this year. It was also Kirkpatrick’s third arrival in the House, having previously represented the 1st District (northeast/central Arizona) twice. The 1st is also the only seat Democrats have to defend this cycle, as the 3rd (southwest Arizona), 7th (Phoenix), 9th (Tempe and Mesa) Districts are safe Democratic seats. The conservative Democratic incumbent for the 1st District, Tom O’Halleran, first won in 2016 by 7 points and then 8 points in 2018 in a district that went for Trump by 1 point, and is facing Republican Tiffany Shedd for his reelection. Democrats are also aiming to flip the 6th District (northeast Phoenix suburbs/Scottsdale), where Republican incumbent David Schweikert seems especially vulnerable in the leftward-shifting suburbs. Democrat Hiral Tipirneni is also benefiting from Schweikert admitting to 11 different ethics violations by the House Ethics Committee, and polls show a very close race here.

Democrats are trying to win both houses of the state legislature––they would only need to flip three seats in the state senate and two seats in the state house. In addition, Arizonans are also voting on two ballot measures: Proposition 207, which would legalize recreational marijuana, and Proposition 208, which would increase taxes for incomes over $250,000. Polls show that both are likely to pass. 

Colorado

(pop. 5,759,000, 9 EV) - 9:00p EST

Mail-in ballots are sent to all registered voters, and they need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Nearly all results should be reported on election night.

Colorado had once been a reliably Republican state in presidential elections, voting for a Republican by large margins in every election from 1952 (except for Johnson’s 1964 landslide) up to 1992, when Bill Clinton won the state by a plurality thanks to Ross Perot’s third-party bid. An influx of conservatives in the 1990s helped keep the Centennial State conservative for a few more election cycles, but Democrats managed to win the governorship in 2006, benefiting from the state’s increasingly large share of Hispanic and young voters. Obama and Hillary Clinton won the state by significant margins, and Democrats expanded their dominance in the 2018 midterms, ending the state’s status as a swing state. This year, it is expected that Colorado will be called for Biden soon after polls close. 

Meanwhile, Republican Senator Cory Gardner, the last Republican holding statewide office, is expected to go down in defeat. Gardner narrowly won the seat by 2 points in 2014, riding on a wave of backlash against perceived overreach by the Obama administration. While Gardner was initially perceived to be a moderate––and did join in on bipartisan legislation such as the 2017 DREAM Act––he stuck to the party line on matters like attempting to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and he voted for all three of Trump’s Supreme Court nominees, which hardly engenders goodwill with the broader Colorado electorate. With former Governor John Hickenlooper (and former presidential candidate) being the Democratic challenger this year and leading by large margins in polls, it seems that time is up for Gardner.

Democrats control four out of the state’s seven House seats, the 1st (Denver), 2nd (Fort Collins and Boulder), 6th (Aurora), and 7th (northwest Denver suburbs), all expected to be safe this cycle. As such, Democrats are trying to pick up the Republican-leaning 3rd District (western Colorado), where Republican incumbent Scott Tipton was ousted in his primary by gun rights activist Lauren Boebert, who has said, “I hope this is real,” in response to the QAnon conspiracy theory, but then backpedaled and claimed that she “is not a follower.” Boebert faces former Democratic state representative Diane Mitsch Bush, who last challenged Tipton in 2018 but lost by 26,779 votes (8 points).

Democrats are expected to keep their majorities in both houses of the state legislature. In addition, Coloradans are voting on several ballot measures, including Proposition 113 (which would approve the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, giving the state’s electoral vote to the winner of the national popular vote), Proposition 114 (which would reintroduce gray wolves back to the state––and opposed by a “Stop the Wolf Coalition”), Proposition 115 (which would prohibit abortion after 22 weeks), Proposition 116 (which would lower the income tax), and Proposition 118 (which would establish a paid medical and family leave program). Polls indicate that voters overwhelmingly support Proposition 114 and oppose Proposition 115 (Coloradans have overwhelmingly rejected three ballot initiatives to define unborn human beings as “persons” in 2014, 2010, and 2008). Propositions 116 and 118 are also likely to pass, while opinions on Proposition 113 remain close.

New Mexico

(pop. 2,097,000, 5 EV) - 9:00p EST

Around 45 percent of New Mexico voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Early in-person (around 50 percent of the vote) and processed absentee votes will likely be reported first. Most of the votes should be reported on election night, and the counting of absentee ballots stops at 1 a.m. Eastern and resumes in the morning.

As the state with the highest proportion of Hispanic residents, the Land of Enchantment has voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1988. New Mexico is thus expected to be called for Biden immediately after polls close. With incumbent Senator Tom Udall retiring, he is expected to be succeeded by Representative Ben Ray Luján from the 3rd District (northern New Mexico), who is running against Republican Mark Ronchetti, a former TV meteorologist. This would be the second time Luján succeeded Udall, the latter being the previous representative from the 3rd District from 1999 to 2009. Democrats also hold all statewide offices, have large majorities in the state legislature, and control all three of the state’s House seats. In 2018, Democrats flipped the 2nd District (southern New Mexico), where oil remains an economic mainstay, and are defending it this time around. Incumbent Xochitl Torres Small narrowly unseated Yvette Herrell, the previous Republican incumbent, by 3,722 votes (2 points), and she is once again facing Herrell in a rematch this November, a race that appears to be a tossup. 

Wyoming

(pop. 579,000, 3 EV) - 9:00p EST

Around 30 percent of Wyoming voters are voting by absentee ballot, and those ballots have to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Almost all votes should be reported on election night.

There is no doubt to Trump winning the least populated state––Democrats have never won more than 40 percent of the vote here since 1964. Representative Liz Cheney will win her reelection, and former Representative Cynthia Lummis will win the Senate election to succeed retiring incumbent Mike Enzi. Republicans will also maintain their supermajorities in both the state house and the state senate.

Iowa

(pop. 3,155,000, 6 EV) - 10:00p EST

Around 60 percent of Iowa voters are voting early in person or by absentee ballot, and ballots postmarked by November 2 will be accepted up until November 9. Absentee ballots received by Election Day (around 55 percent of the vote) will likely be reported first, followed by Election Day votes.

Both presidential candidates are virtually tied here in the polls, which means we may not know who won the state on election night. Though if the state was called for Biden on election night, he would be looking at a substantial victory as it would indicate wins across the Midwest. In the Senate race, where Democrat Theresa Greenfield is challenging Republican incumbent Joni Ernst, the tight race could decide which party controls the Senate. The three Democrat-held seats of the four House seats are hotly contested, though all three lean Democratic. In the 1st District (northeast Iowa), incumbent Abby Finkenauer is being challenged by Republican state representative Ashley Hinson. In the 2nd District (southeast Iowa), Democratic state senator Rita Hart and Republican state senator Mariannette Miller-Meeks are contesting the seat following the retirement of the incumbent. In the 3rd District (southwest Iowa), incumbent Cindy Axne is again facing former Representative David Young, whom she defeated in 2018. In the reliably Republican 4th District (northwest Iowa), Republican incumbent Steve King (who was condemned by both parties for his support of white nationalism) was defeated in his primary by state senator Randy Feenstra, who is sure to win the election. Republicans will likely keep the state senate, but Democrats have a chance to win the state house if they flip four seats.

Montana

(pop. 1,069,000, 3 EV) - 10:00p EST

Registered voters in almost all counties are sent a mail-in ballot, and they have to be returned by poll closing time on Election Day. Nearly all votes should be reported on election night. Counties differ as to whether they report mail-in or the few in-person votes first or both together.

The union workers in western Montana and newcomers from California and other urban states have made the Big Sky Country competitive. While Trump will likely win the state, it is expected to be close. Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Steve Bullock (and former presidential candidate) could very well unseat Republican incumbent Steve Daines in the Senate race. Bullock was reelected in 2016 when Hillary Clinton lost the state by 20 points, and Democratic Senator Jon Tester had also won reelection in 2018. With Bullock running for the Senate, the governor seat is open, and Republican Representative Greg Gianforte, as well as Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney, are competing for the seat, which appears to be a tossup. And as Gianforte is running for governor, the at-large House seat is also open, with Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale and former Democratic state representative Kathleen Williams competing for the seat. Williams had challenged Gianforte for the seat in 2018 but lost by 23,377 votes. 

Democrats are also trying to regain control of the offices of secretary of state, auditor (both of which they last held in 2016), and attorney general (which they last held in 2012). Republicans however will maintain their large majorities in both houses of the state legislature. Montanans are also voting on several ballot measures, including two that would respectively authorize setting a legal age for marijuana purchase (CI-118) and legalize marijuana for individuals over 21, and tax its sale (I-190).

Utah

(pop. 3,206,000, 6 EV) - 10:00p EST

All registered voters are sent a mail-in ballot, and they will be accepted by November 10 to 17 depending on the county. Around 70 percent of votes will likely be reported before noon on November 4. Votes received after Election Day will be reported daily.

While reliably Republican, the Mormon-dominated state was reluctant to back Trump in 2016, with around 22 percent backing third-party candidate Evan McMullin. This year, Republican Senator and former presidential nominee Mitt Romney had revealed that he did not vote for the President, and McMullin had endorsed Biden. Nevertheless, Trump is still set to win the state. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox will also win as well. Of the state’s four House seats, Republicans hold three. The Democrat-held 4th District (southern Salt Lake County) is the only tossup House race in the state. Incumbent Representative Ben McAdams only won the seat by 687 votes, and he is facing Republican Burgess Owens this year. Owens has appeared on a pro-QAnon program and suggested the fringe conspiracy theory is “worth looking into,” but he also claimed that accusations of him supporting the theory is “silly.” It could take some time for the 4th District to be called, as it dragged on for two weeks in 2018. 

Even with Utah not that friendly with Trump, the state Republican Party is expected to do just fine, and will keep their supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature. Utahns are also voting on a series of ballot measures, including Constitutional Amendment C, which would remove language from the state constitution that allows slavery as a punishment for crime.

Nevada

(pop. 3,080,000, 6 EV) - 10:00p EST

Mail-in ballots are sent to all registered voters, and postmarked ballots will be accepted up until November 10. 40 percent of voters have cast their ballots early in person. Clark County, where 71 percent of the state’s voters live, should report all in-person and mail votes received by November 2 on election night. Votes received after Election Day will be reported daily.

The support for the Democratic Party by Nevada’s large Hispanic population has traditionally been underrepresented in state polls. With Biden comfortably ahead by single digits, this could translate into a Democratic landslide much like Obama’s 2008 win here. Nevertheless, it may take some time for the state to be called. Democrats control three of the state’s four House seats, with two of them competitive. In the 3rd District (southern Clark County), incumbent Susie Lee is facing Republican retired professional wrestler Dan Rodimer. In the 4th District (northern Clark County to central Nevada), incumbent Steven Horsford is challenged by former state representative Jim Marchant. Democrats have a supermajority in the state house and could expand their majority to a supermajority in the state senate.

Some ballot measures to watch are Question 2, which would officially recognize the legality of same-sex marriage in the state constitution; Question 4, which would guarantee specific voting rights in the state constitution; and Question 6, which would require electric utilities to acquire half of their electricity from renewable resources by 2030.

North Dakota

(pop. 762,000, 3 EV) - 10:00p EST (C) / 11:00p EST (M)

Around 55 percent of North Dakota voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots will be accepted up until November 9. Around 20 percent of voters have cast their votes early in person. Most of the votes should be reported on election night. All ballots arriving later (around 10 percent of the vote) will be reported on November 9.

Republicans have strengthened their control over the Peace Garden State at the expense of the state’s Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party (one of the only two Democratic state parties to have a different name) with the deepening political polarization across the country. The state will be called for Trump immediately after polls close—no Democrat has won the state since Johnson in 1964. Both Governor Doug Burgum and Representative Kelly Armstrong are expected to cruise to reelection victory, and Republicans will keep their supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature.

Idaho

(pop. 1,787,000, 4 EV) -  10:00p EST (M) / 11:00p EST (P)

Around 50 percent of Idaho voters are voting early in person or by absentee ballot, and those ballots need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. It would take a few hours after the last polls close for meaningful results to be reported, but nearly all votes are expected to be reported by the morning of November 4. Half of the counties report absentee votes and Election Day votes together, while the rest report them separately.

It is very doubtful that Democrats will gain any ground here in the Gem State (honestly better known for its potatoes) despite the influx of professionals and minorities. Trump won the state by the worst margin for a Republican candidate since 1996 thanks to Mormon disaffection, but the state has not voted for a Democrat since the 1964 Johnson landslide, and it will be called for Trump immediately after polls close. Senator Jim Risch will win reelection as well. Republicans control both of the state’s House seats and have supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature, and they are expected to keep all of them. 

Oregon

(pop. 4,218,000, 7 EV) - 10:00p EST (M) / 11:00p EST (P)

Mail-in ballots are sent to all registered voters, and they need to be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Virtually all votes should be counted on election night.

Most of Oregon is rural (and infamous for its right-wing militias), but thanks to the influence of Portland and its suburbs where half of the state’s population lives, the Beaver State has been reliably Democratic since 1988. The state should be called for Biden immediately after the last polls close. Senator Jeff Merkley is also expected to win reelection. Democrats also control four of the state’s five House seats, the only one that could be competitive being the 4th District (southwest Oregon), which includes Eugene (University of Oregon) and the college town of Corvallis (Oregon State University). The Democratic incumbent Peter DeFazio won by 15 points here, while Hillary Clinton only won it by 554 votes, less than 0.1 points. DeFazio has held the seat since 1987, and his Republican challenger Alek Skarlatos, a former National Guard who stopped a gunman on a Paris-bound train in 2015, has made the race the most expensive race in the state’s history.

Democrats are trying to win back the office of Secretary of State, which oversees redistricting next year. A Republican won the race in 2016, and now Republican state senator Kim Thatcher is hoping to repeat that success against Democratic state senator Shemia Fagan. Democrats will likely keep the offices of Attorney General and Treasurer, as well as majorities in both houses of the state legislature. In addition, Oregonians are also voting a series of ballot measures, including Measure 109, which would legalize psilocybin mushrooms, and Measure 110, which would decriminalize possession of certain drugs.

California

(pop. 39,512,000, 55 EV) - 11:00p EST

Mail-in ballots are sent to all registered voters, and postmarked ballots will be received up until November 20. Early and mail-in votes arriving before Election Day (around 70 percent of the vote) will be reported first, and then in-person Election Day votes will be reported in the early morning of November 4.

Biden is set to win the most populous state in the country (and the home state of his running mate Senator Kamala Harris) by the largest margin in history for a Democratic presidential candidate. The Golden State has been reliably Democratic since 1992, and it will be called for Biden immediately after polls close. Democrats will also surely keep their supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature. 

Democrats control 45 out of the state’s 53 House seats, and Republicans only 7: the 1st (northeast California), 4th (east central California), 8th (High Desert/eastern California), 22nd (Fresno, Central Valley), 23rd (Bakersfield, Central Valley), 25th (northern Los Angeles exurbs), and 42nd (Corona, Inland Empire). The 50th District (inland San Diego) seat is vacant after the former Republican incumbent Duncan D. Hunter pleaded guilty to misusing campaign fines and resigned. The 4th and 50th Districts surprisingly look competitive to Democrats, though chances are they both remain Republican. In the 4th District, which encompasses the wealthy northern suburbs of Sacramento, incumbent Tom McClintock won by 8 points in 2018, but his Democratic opponent businesswoman Brynne Kennedy is well-funded and could have an outside shot of winning. In the open 50th District, former Labor Department official Ammar Campa-Najjar, who last ran against Duncan D. Hunter in 2018 and lost only by 8,914 votes, is once again running for the seat, this time against former Republican Representative Darrell Issa. In the 25th District however, Democrats have a greater chance of winning. The seat was held by Democrat Katie Hill, who won by 21,396 votes (9 points) but resigned in 2019 for having an inappropriate relationship with a campaign staffer. Hill endorsed state representative Christy Smith, but Smith was defeated by Republican Mike Garcia by 16,854 votes (10 points) in a special election held earlier this year. The two are having a rematch this November, and polls indicate that it would be a tossup. Other prominent Republican representatives, including former chair of the House Intelligence Committee Devin Nunes (22nd) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (23rd), are expected to win reelection.

In addition, Democrats are also defending their gains from 2018: the 10th (Modesto, Central Valley), 21st (Fresno to Bakersfield, Central Valley), 39th (northern Orange County), 45th (central Orange County), 48th (coastal Orange County), and 49th (northwest San Diego). The 21st is most in danger of flipping, while Democrats only have slight leads in the 39th and 48th. Incumbent T.J. Cox narrowly unseated Republican David Valadao in the 21st District by 862 votes in a major upset in 2018, and he is now facing Valadao again. While the district went for Hillary Clinton by 16 points in 2016, Valadao won it by 14 points, and he may be able to replicate that result and win the seat back this year. In the 39th District, incumbent Gil Cisneros won by 7,611 votes in 2018 against Young Kim, California’s first Korean-American Republian state representative, and is facing Kim once again. In the 48th District, incumbent Harley Rouda defeated controversial former incumbent Dana Rohrabacher by 20,938 votes, and is now facing Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel, also a Korean-American Republican. Cisneros and Rouda are both former Republicans, which could help them in Orange County, traditionally a bastion of conservatism that has since flipped blue in 2018––a significant change demonstrated by the fact that the 45th District’s incumbent Katie Porter, a proud protegee of Senator Elizabeth Warren best known for bringing out her whiteboard in congressional hearings, is expected to win reelection comfortably. Josh Harder in the 10th and Mike Levin in the 49th (Darrell Issa’s former district) are likewise projected to win their reelection as well. Despite some expensive Republican challenges against prominent Trump rivals (promoted by Trump on Twitter, of course)––House Financial Services Committee chair Maxine Waters in the 43rd District, House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff in the 28th District, and Congressional Black Caucus chair Karen Bass in the 37th District (all in Los Angeles), there is zero chance of those challengers winning. Other prominent Democratic representatives, including Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi in the 12nd District (San Francisco), Barbara Lee in the 13th (Oakland and Berkeley), Ro Khanna in the 17th (San Jose), Judy Chu in the 27th (Pasadena), Ted Lieu in the 33rd (Westside Los Angeles), are all going to be reelected.

Californians are also voting on a series of ballot initiatives, the most controversial one being the Uber/Lyft/DoorDash-funded Proposition 22, which would exempt gig-work companies from a new state law (Assembly Bill 5) requiring gig workers to be classified as employees and contractors, while giving benefits like a minimum wage and overtime to the workers. Tech companies from Silicon Valley have poured hundreds of millions into a “yes” campaign—the most expensive one in the state’s history—and the measure is also supported by Republicans, chambers of commerce and the NAACP. Labor unions and Democrats, including Joe Biden, Senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders oppose the initiative. Two other expensive fights are over Proposition 15, which would change how taxes for commercial and industrial property are assessed, reversing parts of the 1978 Proposition 13 (which allowed property owners to pay property taxes by the property value when bought rather than the current value), and Proposition 16, which would repeal the 1996 Proposition 209 (which banned affirmative action). Both are supported by Democrats and opposed by Republicans. Furthermore, some other initiatives backed by Democrats include Proposition 17 (which would restore voting rights for felons on parole), Proposition 18 (which would allow 17-year olds who will be 18 at the general election to vote in primaries), Proposition 19 (which would expand property tax benefits to property owners who are over 55, disabled, or disaster victims, while increasing the property tax burden on inheritance), Proposition 21 (which would expand rent control), and Proposition 25 (which would replace the cash bail system with risk assessments). Republicans are backing Proposition 20, which would roll back criminal justice reforms passed in past years under former Governor Jerry Brown. Polls show that Propositions 17 and 19 have a good chance of passing, Proposition 18 is likely to fail, while the fate for the rest of the controversial propositions are hard to tell.

Washington

(pop. 7,615,000, 12 EV) - 11:00p EST

Absentee ballots are sent to all registered voters, and postmarked ballots will be accepted as late as November 23. Only around 70 percent of the total votes will be reported on election night, and subsequent votes received will be updated at the end of each day.

The growth of Seattle and its suburbs has put the Evergreen State safely in the Democratic column, with no Republican presidential candidate winning the state since Reagan in 1984. As such, the state will be called for Biden immediately after polls close. Incumbent Democratic Governor (and former presidential candidate) Jay Inslee is expected to win a third term as well, while the race for lieutenant governor (the incumbent is leaving to join the Jesuits) is a runoff between two Democrats, Representative Denny Heck from the 10th District (Olympia) and state senator Marko Liias. Democrats control seven of the state’s ten House seats, but none of them competitive this cycle, with the race for the 10th District seat also between two Democrats: state representative Beth Doglio and Mayor Marilyn Strickland of Takoma. Of the Republicans’ three House seats, only the 3rd District (southern Washington) is competitive, where Democrat Carolyn Long is challenging incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler.

Democrats are expected to keep their large majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and may be able to expand both. In addition, a ballot measure to watch is Referendum 90, which would allow a controversial bill requiring public schools to provide comprehensive sex education to take effect. Republicans are railing against the bill and supporting a candidate against the incumbent education superintendent, though polls show that the referendum will likely pass.

American Samoa

(pop. 49,000) - 12:00a EST

American Samoa will be the last territory to finish voting. With incumbent Democratic Governor Lolo Matalasi Moliga not eligible for another term, four candidates are running to succeed him. While candidates may have affiliation with national parties, the gubernatorial election is technically nonpartisan. The bicameral territorial legislature is also nonpartisan. Incumbent Republican Delegate Amata Coleman Radewagen though will likely be reelected.

Hawaii

(pop. 1,416,000, 4 EV) - 12:00a EST

Absentee ballots are sent to all registered voters, and they must be received by poll closing time on Election Day. Early mail-in ballots (about 90 percent of votes) are reported immediately after polls close, with Election Day votes reported at 3 a.m. Eastern. 

Democrats have won every presidential election held here (apart from the Republican landslides of 1972 and 1984), and the Aloha State will be called for Biden with little doubt. Both the state’s House seats are solidly Democratic. Representative Ed Case will win reelection in the 1st District (Honolulu), while State Senator Kai Kahele will be succeeding former presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard in the 2nd District (rest of Hawaii). Democrats will also maintain their supermajorities in the state legislature.

Alaska

(pop. 710,000, 3 EV) - 12:00a EST (A) / 1:00a EST (H)

Around 35 percent of Alaska voters are voting by absentee ballot, and postmarked ballots will be accepted until November 13. Unusually, absentee ballots are counted a week after the election beginning on November 10, and only early votes cast by October 29 (around 15 percent of the vote) and Election Day ballots (around 50 percent of the vote) will be reported on election night. Counting should be complete by November 18.

While Alaska will probably go for Trump in the presidential election––having voted for a Republican in every presidential election since 1968––the Senate and House races are competitive in the notoriously hard-to-poll state. With an increased amount of absentee ballots this year and the delay in reporting them, the results of those close races likely would not be known until at least a week after. In the Senate race, independent and Democratic nominee Dr. Al Gross is challenging Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Sullivan won the seat in 2014 only by 6,014 votes (2 points). In the at-large House race, Don Young, the Republican incumbent who held the seat since 1973, is facing a challenge from independent Alyse Galvin, who last faced Young in 2018 and lost only by 18,580 votes (6.5 points). 

Republicans are expected to keep their slim majority in the state senate, as well as possibly regaining control of the state house. Democrats currently have a 2-seat majority in the state house thanks to several Republicans joining their caucus. But with two Republicans in the coalition announcing that they may exit the coalition after the election, two defeated in primaries and another dying in a plane crash, things do not look too good for the majority coalition.  Alaskans are also voting on a ballot measure (No. 2) that would adopt a top-four primary system for state executive, state legislative, and congressional offices instead of holding partisan primaries. (Candidates from the Democratic Party, Libertarian Party, and Alaskan Independence Party currently run in the same primary.) The initiative would also establish ranked-choice voting for general elections. In the fiercely independent state with many third parties and independent candidates, adopting such a system could help non-Republicans win statewide. The state Republican Party opposes the initiative, but polls show that it is likely to pass. 

In any case, don’t sleep on Alaska.

Note: unless specified, information on state politics comes from the Almanac of American Politics, information on ballot measures, their polling, and candidates from Ballotpedia, race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Daily Kos, information on vote counting from FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times, polls closing time from the Green Papers, rules on accepting absentee ballots from Democracy Works, and early voting estimates based on early voting data from the New York Times and the United States Elections Project (amount of remaining mail-in ballots may be overestimated). All population numbers are 2019 estimates rounded off to the nearest thousand.