Compass World: Should we Stay or Should we Stay?
US soldiers train with Tanzanian forces. (US Africa Command)
Promises are something world leaders are just not good at keeping. They sometimes hardly even try to keep them—until their terms are poised to end. Anticipating an intense reelection campaign in 2020, President Donald Trump is looking to deliver on at least one of his flagship campaign promises: bringing home troops and ending so-called “forever wars.”
Late last week, Defense Secretary Mark Esper revealed the possibility of a partial, perhaps even complete, withdrawal of U.S. troops from West Africa. This consequential decision would require military commanders to consider areas where resources can be freed up either to bring U.S. troops back home or to strategically reposition them elsewhere. The move is but one part of a larger Pentagon-spearheaded effort to reduce U.S. deployments worldwide.
Overcommitted
Trump claims this strategy eliminates futile engagements with extremist groups and refocuses resources on potential conflict with Russia and China. Congressmen on both sides of the aisle, however, believe that such withdrawals strengthen the footholds of these two rivals. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Senator Chris Coons (D-DE) penned a letter to Esper insisting that “a withdrawal from the continent would also certainly embolden both Russia and China” and that the U.S. plays a critical role in “serv[ing] as a check.”
Thankfully for Congress, Russia and China soon gave evidence to support their concerns. Russia recently deployed 200 mercenaries to Mozambique, established the groundwork for a naval port in the Horn of Africa (a potential first permanent African base), and increased its arms sales to unstable, autocratic states in the region. Meanwhile, China has taken several proactive steps to establish a foothold on the continent, including increasing its African commercial investments and constructing a new port in Senegal in partnership with the Senegalese Navy. The Chinese army also already has a base in Djibouti.
America, inching toward withdrawal, also threatens Africa’s security from growing terrorist threats, especially in the Sahel region. Foreign Policy found that 3,471 African civilian deaths were linked to extremist activity—a doubling of casualties since 2013.
An Unpromising Engagement
While most Americans are wholly unaware that the U.S. military is even in Africa, the death of four U.S. soldiers in a remote Nigerien desert in 2019 brought to light a history of American secret raids against terrorist organizations in several West African countries. The Pentagon seems to care about the region, too. They recently built a $110 million drone base in Niger and continue to provide assistance to French forces battling militants in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Disengaging from the region would mean abandoning those projects.
While the Pentagon continues to claim that the U.S. was (and is) merely present to advise and assist other militaries, re-emerging domestic debates draw scrutiny not only to the mission’s immediate shortcomings but also to the legality and authority of the United States to operate in Africa at all.
A Promise Better Broken?
Trump will be breaking his promise regardless of his ultimate decision. If he is to withdraw forces from Africa to end a “forever war,” the American public would have been hoodwinked: those same troops would likely be repositioned “to compete with Russia and China” rather than brought home. If the significant U.S. presence remains, the contradiction is evident.
As Africa’s population, economy, and middle class continue to balloon, the continent’s commercial and political importance only grows. For better or for worse, the White House might consider consciously breaking its promise and sticking around.