In 2019, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan (left) met with Azerbaijani President Aliyev (right). Now they're fighting a war. (Wikimedia Commons)

The fight between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory in the South Caucasus region reignited at sunrise on September 27. The conflict, now stretching to its second week, has seen more than 500 reported casualties, including 60 civilians. Both countries have mobilized forces, decreed martial law, and signalled resolve for prolonged war. As predictable as this conflict was, it could end disastrously.

The World’s Shortest Ceasefire, Probably

On Saturday, Moscow brokered an unfortunately short-lived ceasefire that allowed the countries to swap prisoners and the dead. Literally within minutes, both sides accused each other of violating the truce. Azerbaijan claimed renewed shelling in its city of Ganja five minutes after the ceasefire was established. Videos show bombing in Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh the night of the truce. The ceasefire fully ceased by Monday. So, nothing has really changed.

Armenia and Azerbaijan are fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh, the autonomous Armenian zone within Azerbaijani territory (but not Azerbaijani control). (Wikimedia Commons)

Old Blood, Bad Blood

Armenia and Azerbaijan lie on a historical fault line of sorts. Borders have continuously been redrawn as the region witnessed the rise and fall of the Ottoman, Persian, and Soviet empires. The region contains major oil and gas pipelines that carry Azarbaijani crude oil to European markets. All this is to say, the conflict is deep-rooted and the stakes are high.

Bad blood runs deep between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis, who are backed by Turkey. The painful memory of the 1915 Armenian genocide, committed by the Ottoman Turks, has led to irreconcilable ethnic and territorial differences between the three countries (Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan).

Prior to World War I, during the decline of the Ottoman empire, many Christian Armenian merchants located in eastern Anatolia appeared better off than their Muslim Turkish neighbors, who were largely peasants, causing widespread discontent among the Turks. At the start of WWI, the Turks sided with Germany and blamed the Armenians in the region for siding with the Russians. This opposition triggered a genocide that lasted until 1922.

In 1921, the Soviet Union took control of the nascent states of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Stalin carved out Nagorno-Karabakh (known locally as Artsakh) as an autonomous region within and belonging to Azerbaijan—but 90 percent of its denizens were ethnic Armenians.

The national assembly of Nagorno-Karabakh voted to give up its autonomous status and join Armenia in 1988, but Azerbaijan rejected the vote. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, full-scale war broke out between the two countries. Lasting from 1991 to 1994, the war claimed up to thirty thousand lives and displaced millions. The war ended with a Russia-brokered ceasefire that lasted until 2016.

To both countries, this conflict is an existential one. Azerbaijan fights to restore its claim over its territory. Armenia fights for the self-determination of its people.

Dramatis Personae

The chessboard is complicated. Turkey, Russia, Georgia, the United States, and France are all invested players.

Azerbaijani President Aliyev (left) shakes hands with Turkish President Erdogan. The two are close allies. Erdogan pledged to support Azerbaijan unconditionally when war broke out. (Wikimedia Commons)

Turkey

The international community at large has called for an immediate ceasefire and a return to the negotiating table. That is, every country but Turkey. Azerbaijan supplies Turkey with natural gas and crude oil. Turkey, in turn, has long sided with Azerbaijan in this dispute. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called Armenia the “biggest obstacle to peace in the South Caucasus.” Following a small flare-up in the region this July, Turkish and Azerbaijani forces conducted joint military exercises. When this current conflict broke out, Turkey has also been accused of sending Syrian militants into Azerbaijan. Turkey’s hardline response to this conflict is seen as part of a series of attempts at achieving regional leadership across the former Ottoman Empire.

Russia

Russia has been playing both sides, assuming the role of main arms supplier to both Armenia and Azerbaijan: when fighting broke out in the region in 2016, Russia armed both sides despite heavy international criticism.

While Putin has publicly maintained neutrality and called for a ceasefire, Russia has ties with Armenia that suggest a potential alliance, later if not now. Armenia hosts a major Russian military base, and the two share a mutual defense pact that obligates Russia to aid in Armenia’s territorial defense. However, the pact does not cover the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. This new territorial dispute adds tension to the ongoing proxy wars in Libya and Syria that pit Russia against Turkey. In both Libya and Syria, Russia and Turkey have backed opposite factions in the states’ respective power vacuums.

Georgia

Stuck in the middle of all of this, literally, is Georgia. Neighbors with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia fears further escalation could spill into its borders and has offered to mediate talks. However, both countries have refused to accept the offer.

Georgia houses a sizable community of ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis that haven’t always gotten along. Georgia is adamant on not taking sides. It has closed its borders and airspace for transit of military supplies to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite the government’s official neutrality, the Armenian and Azeri communities in Georgia have stepped up to collect aid and organize protests in support of their respective homelands. The ongoing conflict could inflame ethnic tensions and domestic unrest. Georgia’s strategy is to lie low while doing what it can to diffuse the situation.

The U.S. and France

Russia, the United States, and France are all co-chairs of the Minsk Group, an international group tasked with mediating this territorial dispute. The U.S. and France, however, have limited leverage and waning influence in the region. Both countries have politically active domestic Armenian populations that could sway their governments to support the Armenian cause.

Similar to Russia, the U.S. has also armed both sides in this conflict. Recently, Senate Democrats have called for the U.S. to halt security aid to Azerbaijan. The Department of Defense (DoD) has responded saying the aid will be “carefully structured so that it will not undermine or hamper ongoing efforts to negotiate a peaceful settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan or be used for offensive purposes against Armenia.” The DoD sees Azerbaijan as a strategic regional partner, pushing it to align more closely with the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO).

The Human Cost

What are other consequences of the fighting?

Oil and gas supplies are threatened. Azerbaijan is a major exporter of crude oil and natural gas, particularly to the European market. It directly supplies Turkey and Russia. A critical oil pipeline—the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan—lies right beside the area of conflict. Azerbaijan has already accused Armenia of attacking the pipeline. Fighting in the region jeopardizes a global oil supply chain.

More importantly, civilians living in the disputed territory are caught in the crossfire. According to Karabakh officials, “some 50 percent of Karabakh’s population and 90 percent of women and children—or some 70,000-75,000 people—have been displaced.” Major cities in Azerbaijan have also been shelled by Armenian forces. While governments fight, civilians die.

There is growing fear the political conflict may escalate into a religious one. The alliance of Turkey and Azerbaijan against Armenia creates a religious divide, pitting a “Muslim-Azeri-Turkish” bloc against a “Christian Armenia.” This divide might spark strong ethnic and religious hatreds within communities that will persist long after the conflict subsides.

But religion still takes a backseat to geopolitics: Azerbaijan has accused Muslim-majority Iran of smuggling arms to Armenia (a claim Iran denies), while Israel has long supplied weapons to Azerbaijan. Turkey, a Sunni-majority state, is aiding mostly Shia Azerbaijan.

No Spoilers

Experts believe the situation over Nagorno-Karabakh creates a possibility for escalation into a full-blown proxy war between Turkey and Russia. Turkey is seen as a revisionist state in the region, given its increasingly aggressive maneuvers in Libya, Greece, Cyprus, and Syria. It seems to be using this conflict to flex its military muscles against its regional rival, Russia.

Despite this, a full-out proxy war between the two remains unlikely. Neither country views this dispute as worthy of serious bloodshed.

The key player here is Russia. The U.S. and NATO have significantly less leverage in the region than Putin does. Moreover, the U.S. is distracted by the November elections and the political problems that come with it, meaning this conflict lies within Russia’s sphere of influence.

Moscow has demonstrated its desire for neutrality as it has made an, albeit failed, attempt at brokering peace. Fresh talks have resumed in Moscow following the fallout of the previous ceasefire. This persistence signals Putin’s desire to keep Armenia and Azerbaijan in balance, so Russia can continue to assert hegemonic control over both while countering Turkish influence. After all, if Russia loses Azerbaijan’s trust, they have one less state to sell arms to. Conflict sells, but peace can be profitable, too.