OPINION: Russia and Turkey’s Regional Clashes May Create the Next Syria
Sarah Keisler (SFS ‘22) is a journalist for the Eastern Europe and Russia section and a guest writer for the Caravel's opinion section. The content and opinions of this piece are the writer’s and the writer’s alone. They do not reflect the opinions of the Caravel or its staff.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in St.Petersburg. (Wikimedia Commons)
Conflict erupted between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the historically disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region on September 27. Within days, Turkish forces entered the conflict. A week later, Russia is assuming the role of neutral peacekeeper. The conflict has the potential to refuel tension between Russia and Turkey and become a stage on which Ankara and Moscow compete for increased influence in the Caucasus.
When the fighting broke out, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was the first world leader to engage, declaring total support for Azerbaijan. Turkey supplies weapons to the Azeri forces and is suspected to be sending troops and aircrafts in as well. On September 29, the Armenian government posted photos of a Turkish fighter jet grounded in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, Istanbul denies any on-the-ground involvement.
Russia’s role in the conflict so far has been focused on peacekeeping. Russia, along with France and the United States, demanded a ceasefire on October 1. Moscow views the Caucasus region as connected to Russia in their shared Soviet history, and seeks “cordial relations with both sides," according to Kremlin Spokesman Dmitri Peskov.
Some sources speculate that Moscow’s neutral outlook is destined to change. Political analyst Arkady Dubnov writes,"the Turkish factor in this war is obvious and looks extremely threatening. I do not envy our leaders in the Kremlin." According to RadioFreeEurope, Turkey’s involvement may inspire Russia to exert its influence in the region and take Armenia’s side.
Russia boasts strong relations with Armenia, which hosts a Russian military base. Moscow maintains a military pact with Armenia as well. Some analysts speculate that Russia may deploy troops to Armenia in order to maintain its sphere of influence in the area. According to Richard Giragosian, director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, “There's no such thing as Russian peacekeepers: Once deployed, they never go home."
Other analysts, like Dubnov, wonder if Moscow’s failure to take arms in the conflict marks the end of Russian influence in the region and the beginning of Istanbul’s reign in the Caucasus. Russia’s connections to Armenia and Azerbaijan date back long before the Soviet era. In addition, Russia has historically deployed troops following a shift in power dynamics in its former Soviet republics, namely Georgia and Ukraine.
However, the militarily ambitious Erdogan aims to challenge this dominance. Erdogan has garnered a reputation among heads of state for ignoring diplomatic protocol. According to Ryan Gingeras of the Naval Postgraduate School, “There is a broad consensus that the region is in flux in terms of regional power, so Turkey has had the opportunity to play a much more expansive role.”
The disputed territory is critical due to its strategic location. The Caucasus is the nexus for numerous oil pipelines that supply energy to large parts of Europe. Both Russia and Turkey would benefit from influence in the strategic energy corridor.
While it is unclear whether Russia will enter the conflict, the decision will impact the outcome of the conflict and the power dynamic between the two major Eurasian powers Russia and Turkey. Nagorno-Karabakh could even become the next Syria—an arena for proxy conflict where neither side will prevail.
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