Compass Elections: Bolivia Elections 101
Parliamentary seats and the presidency are up for grabs in Bolivia’s special elections on October 18. Interim Bolivian President Jeanine Áñez Chavez dropped out of the race in September, turning the presidential race into one primarily between former economic minister Luis Arce and former president Carlos Mesa. Here is what you need to know.
Luis Arce, former economic minister and frontrunner in the presidential election. (Wikimedia Commons)
A Year of Crisis
Following the disputed election results in October 2019, Bolivia has endured a year of political crisis. After nearly a month of protests directly following the election, the supposed victor and three-term President Evo Morales stepped down along with other high-ranking officials. Morales is a member of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, and, while praised as an effective leader, has been criticized for attempting to establish authoritarian power via the extension of term limits.
Áñez, then holding the position of Second Vice President of the Senate, assumed the role of interim president and has held that position until now. Áñez is a member of the Democratic Social Movement, a center-right party with a focus on the autonomy of Bolivia’s eastern Media Luna region. Áñez is a vocal opponent of Morales and his party.
Morales and his supporters have called the events of October 2019 a coup d’état, and they reject Áñez’s interim government. The MAS and other critics of the Áñez administration have accused it of persecuting MAS party members and their indigenous supporters.
Special elections to appoint a new president were initially scheduled for May 2020, but they were postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The date of October 18 was chosen despite protests for an earlier date among Morales supporters.
With the events of the past year still fresh in the Bolivian memory, many international observers see the October 2020 election as both a test of Bolivian socialism and Bolivian democracy.
Protestors flood the streets of La Paz against alleged election fraud in 2019 (Wikimedia Commons)
The Electoral System
Presidents of Bolivia are elected to five-year terms in a two-part electoral process. If a candidate either wins 50 percent of the vote or wins 40 percent with a 10 percent lead over the second most popular candidate, the election does not move into its second round and the victor is declared. If no candidate meets these conditions, the elections move into a second round with only the top two candidates of the first round.
Bolivia has a bicameral Plurinational Legislative Assembly consisting of an upper house, the Chamber of Senators, and a lower house, the Chamber of Deputies. The Chamber of Senators consists of 36 members: nine senators per each department (region) of Bolivia, elected via a closed-list proportional representation system. The Chamber of Deputies has a mixed-member proportional representation system: 70 seats are elected from districts under a first-past-the-post voting system, 53 by closed-list proportional representation based on each party’s share of the vote in each department, and the seven remaining via the usos y costumbres law, reserved for indigenous citizens. Both houses of the legislature are currently controlled by the MAS.
Senate elections and proportional elections in the Chamber of Deputies are contingent on the outcome of the presidential election, with seats proportionally allocated to each of the chambers by each party’s share of the presidential vote.
Players to Watch
While not on the ballot, Evo Morales remains a looming presence in Bolivian politics. (Wikimedia Commons)
Luis Arce – With no Morales remaining to lead the MAS ticket, the ex-President has handpicked Luis Arce to represent his party in the presidential race. Arce is largely credited for Bolivia’s economic success over the previous 15 years, serving as the country’s finance minister under Morales. As a member of MAS, Arce is a left-wing populist and indigenist candidate.
Evo Morales – Morales imprinted heavily upon Bolivia by being Bolivia’s first indigenous president and serving one of the longest presidencies in Latin American history. A staunch socialist, Morales renationalized oil and gas industries, increased tax revenue to reform social programs, and was an advocate for both indigenous communities and coca farmers. Although this will be the first time since 2002 that Morales has not appeared on a presidential ballot, the ex-President is still a looming presence over the elections. Morales, currently in exile in Argentina, has vowed to return to Bolivia “the next day” if Arce wins the election.
Jeanine Áñez Chavez – Although the interim President announced her candidacy in January of this year (sparking major backlash even from her allies), she dropped out of the presidential race in September, stating she did not want to split the conservative vote and cause Morales’ MAS party to gain power.
Carlos Mesa – This former president of Bolivia from 2003-2005 has sought another term in this upcoming election. Mesa is a member of the Civic Community (CC) coalition, a centrist coalition between various democratic parties which he founded in 2018 as an opponent to Morales’ bid for power. In the 2019 elections Mesa lost, but gained an impressive 36.7 percent of the vote.
Fernando Camacho – Camacho heads the newly-formed right-wing “Creemos” coalition, which, along with Mesa’s CC coalition, is a leader in the anti-Morales movement. Camacho is solid in his Catholic belief, having stated he wishes to “bring the Bible back to the palace of government.”
What Next?
Heading into the election, Arce and the MAS party lead the polls with 32.4 percent of voters, with Mesa trailing in second with 24.5 percent and Camacho in third with 10.7 percent. A significant 13.3 percent of voters are still undecided, enough to tip the scale either towards MAS or the opposition. If Arce manages to get the support of most undecided voters to surpass the 40 percent hurdle, he could win the presidency outright without needing to go into a runoff election. If the top two candidates, likely Arce and Mesa, are within 10 percentage points of one another, then a run-off election would need to take place on November 28.
Bolivia’s Supreme Electoral Court has announced late on October 17 that running preliminary vote totals will not be reported. In the 2019 election, the preliminary result was announced with 84 percent of polling stations counted, showing Morales leading by 7.3 percent. As a result, when the final results gave Morales a 10.6 point lead over his opponent, this prompted accusations of vote rigging, leading to the mass protests.
In any case, the polarized nature of Bolivia’s political scene means tensions will likely persist, no matter the outcome of the election.
Update: According to the unofficial exit polls, Luis Arce has won the presidential election outright in the first round with 52.4 percent of the vote, ahead of Mesa's 31.5 percent and Camacho's 14.1 percent. President Jeanine Áñez has conceded the election, announcing that it is clear from the data that Luis Arce has won.