Second Ceasefire Fails in Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenian soldiers are volunteering with Nagorno-Karabakh’s defense forces (Wikimedia Commons)

Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a second ceasefire agreement on October 17 and immediately accused each other of breaking it. The countries first agreed to a ceasefire on October 10 to exchange prisoners of war, but this truce also fell through as each side accused the other of violating the agreement.

The current conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region began on September 27. As of October 19, the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh reported 729 military and 37 Armenian civilian deaths. 61 Azeri civilians were reported dead, but Azerbaijan's military deaths are unknown. 

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is the worst in the area since the 1990s war between ethnic Armenian forces and Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh is an enclave within Azerbaijan’s borders populated by ethnic Armenians who reject Azeri rule. Ethnic Armenians have been governing the region since the ceasefire in 1994, but Azerbaijan has repeatedly tried to take back control of the area. 

Armenia claims their forces have not been involved in the conflict, although Armenian citizens are volunteering with Nagorno-Karabakh’s forces. Because Azerbaijan does not recognize the enclave, Baku will not speak with Nagorno-Karabakh’s separatist authorities, so Armenia negotiates on their behalf.

The Minsk Group, composed of Russia, France, and the United States under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), has tried to negotiate peace in Nagorno-Karabakh since the ceasefire in 1994. Russia brokered the first ceasefire in the current conflict, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calling on both sides to observe it in the second truce. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov and Zohrab Mnatsakanian will meet individually with the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on October 23.

The international community fears the Armenian-Azerbaijan fighting could grow into a regional conflict. Turkey strongly supports Azerbaijan, creating tension with its Western allies in NATO. Russia has a defense pact with Armenia but sells weapons to both sides.