New Caledonians Vote on Independence Referendum
New Caledonian citizens will take to the polls on Sunday in a vote that may result in their independence. (Creative Commons)
New Caledonians will vote to determine the state of their political relationship with France on October 4. If a majority of voters choose yes, the world may see the birth of a tiny new country in the Pacific. Throughout this week, pro-independence parties and loyalists (favoring France) have ramped up their campaigns, both aiming for high percentages of voter turnout.
Comprising four archipelagos, New Caledonia is situated in the South Pacific about 1500 kilometers from the Australian coast. The main island of Grande Terre contains the majority of the territory’s 270,000 inhabitants. New Caledonia has remained under French control since 1853, but recently support for independence has grown, especially from the indigenous Kanak population.
On the other hand, loyalists cite the enormous French influence on New Caledonian society as a main reason for their opposition to independence. The province’s economy runs on French subsidies of about 1.3 billion euros per year, and they rely on France for educational services and external defense.
However, economic inequality between the Kanaks and the European descendants prevails. The Kanak youth unemployment rate stands at 38 percent while only 3 percent of Kanaks graduate from higher education institutions. Despite a boom in nickel mining, the wealth gap has only increased in the past decade.
Sunday’s referendum will mark the second such referendum within the past two years. The Noumea Accord of 1998, which sought to further the decolonization of the islands during a twenty year transitionary period, allows for three independence referendums.
The first referendum in 2018 failed, with a vote of 56.6 percent to 43.3 percent. This time around, however, the margins should be much closer. 6,000 more individuals can vote this cycle than in 2018 while a further 33,000 eligible voters who abstained from the previous vote have faced mounting pressure to cast a ballot.
Furthermore, the political climate in New Caledonia has changed dramatically since the first referendum. In local elections in 2019, pro-independence parties won more seats than the loyalist coalition. Led by Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS), pro-independence parties have grown more critical of the French government. Recently, they opposed French efforts to save a nickel mining project with direct Australian involvement, advocating instead for local control of the project.
Loyalist conservatives have voiced concern regarding Chinese influence in New Caledonia if they gain independence. Dr. Catherine Ris, director of the Research Center on Economics and Law at the University of New Caledonia, echoed these fears, saying,“if we are no longer French, we will be Chinese. It’s the fear that China will be everywhere in the world.” Because of the sale of nickel deposits to China, New Caledonia already depends on them significantly as a trade partner.
Due to a lack of opinion polls over the last six months, the results of this referendum could swing either way. The COVID-19 pandemic has added another, unforeseen, variable into the mix, which has resulted in stricter border controls and countrywide social distancing regulations that could affect voter turnout. Additionally, the recent closure of a nickel factory has led to the loss of more than 1000 jobs. These factors will undoubtedly weigh heavily on voters as they head to the polls.