Pompeo Threatens to Close U.S. Embassy in Baghdad

Protests along the perimeter of the U.S. Embassy in Iraq (December 2019) (Wikipedia)

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has announced that if Iraqi militia attacks continue, the U.S. will close its Baghdad Embassy.

According to a State Department spokesperson, the proximate cause for Pompeo’s cautionary message to Iraq was U.S. concern regarding“Iran-backed groups launching rockets at our Embassy.” The Washington Post reported that the U.S. asked the Iraqi government to take a harder line on attacks emanating from the militias, which indicates that an increase in Iraqi security may stave off the possibility of the Embassy’s shut-down.

Washington’s Baghdad Embassy and Iraqi military bases have been increasingly targeted with rockets and small bombs by Iraqi militia groups since the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January. Rocket attacks claimed the lives of two American service members and a British soldier in March and have killed several members of the Iraqi security forces throughout the year.

Spurred by the sudden shift in U.S. rhetoric, some members of Iraqi leadership are attempting to assuage U.S. safety concerns. Speaking on Pompeo’s announcement, Ahmed Mulla Talal, a spokesman for the prime minister, stated “we hope the Americans will reconsider it.” Talal also echoed U.S. frustrations with Iraq’s militia groups, but cautioned that an American withdrawal would produce unintended effects, saying that “there are outlaw groups that try to shake this relationship, and closing the embassy would send a negative message to them.” Iraqi Prime Minister Kadhimi himself has endeavored to convince several European representatives to join him in calling on the U.S. to keep its Baghdad embassy in the interest of Iraqi stability.

While Pompeo’s recent announcement of a potential embassy closure came as a surprise to Iraq, the U.S. reducing its footprint in Iraq is not a new development. Following a period of escalating tensions between the U.S. and  Iran in May 2019, Pompeo ordered most of the U.S. personnel in the Baghdad Embassy to leave, a decision which has not since been reversed. More recently, in September, the U.S. government announced that it would cut the number of American troops in Iraq by almost half––from 5,000 to 3,000––by the end of October. Despite the context of drawdowns of U.S. presence in Iraq, the threat of a total withdrawal still stunned Iraqi leadership, in part due to an August meeting during which President Trump indicated his support of Kadhimi.

The New York Times reports that withdrawing the massive American mission in Baghdad would be viewed as leaving the pro-U.S. Kadhimi hanging out to dry for the Iranians. This assessment is shared by both American and Iraqi observers. Ambassador Barbara Leaf, a senior U.S. diplomat who served in Iraq, has argued that a U.S. pullout would play directly into Iranian hands, warning that “this has already stimulated an already raging appetite on the part of the Iranian-affiliated militias to push harder for what they and Iran want––the U.S. out altogether.” Similarly, Iraq’s former UN Ambassador Feisal al-Israbadi delivered an equally foreboding message, arguing that “by withdrawing––by closing the embassy––the United States would actually be handing Tehran a victory, a strategic victory, in Iraq.”

While it is difficult to ascertain the likelihood of a U.S. pullout from Iraq, the challenges of poor domestic backing, an increasingly small U.S. presence, and the influence and size of the Iranian-backed militias mean that Prime Minister Kadhimi will face an uphill battle in reducing the frequency of future attacks.