OPINION: A Permanent Pink Tide?
Felipe Lobo Koerich (SFS ‘21, LAS ‘22) is the Caravel’s Publisher and a guest writer for the Caravel's opinion section. The content and opinions of this piece are the writer’s and the writer’s alone. They do not reflect the opinions of the Caravel or its staff.
Presidents Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, Dilma Rousseff of Brazil, José Mujica of Uruguay, and Cristina Fernández Kirchner of Argentina represented the last elected presidents of the first pink tide. (Wikimedia Commons)
The mid-2010s dissipation of the Pink Tide, the election of a series of left-leaning presidents in Latin America during the late 1990s and 2000s, did not herald the end of the left. The region currently trends more to the left, and left-wing parties are more actively competitive in electoral politics than ever. But to secure this opportunity, the left must learn from its early mistakes. It must meaningfully address and avoid corruption, play by and strengthen democratic rules, and avoid economic turmoil to maximize its competitiveness and success.
The Left: Down But Not Out
Levitsky and Roberts lay out a compelling explanation for the rise of the left. Extreme socioeconomic inequalities worsened by anemic growth, financial crises, and neoliberal policies served as a major factor. In combination with institutional democracy and a less stigmatising global environment post-Cold War, inequality led to the resurgence of many left-wing parties.
These same conditions largely still exist. The Pink Tide further destigmatized and legitimated left-wing governance. Democracy is still, for the most part, open and institutionalised. Inequality is rampant and aggravated by the post-commodities boom and COVID-19 era.
Various countries have since elected left-wing presidents, including Argentina with Alberto Fernandez and the return of former-president Christina Fernandez Kirchner to the vice presidency, Panama with Laurentino Cortizo, and Mexico with Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Chileans have been protesting chronic inequality and austerity measures since 2019 under right-leaning President Sebastián Piñera. Even President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, a far-right politician, has enacted emergency COVID-19 policies that distribute money directly to impoverished citizens.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador is sworn in as president of Mexico on December 1, 2018. (Flickr)
Rightist presidents have generally refused to undo left-wing policies due to electoral concerns and their strong popular support, again demonstrating the endurance of left-wing politics.
Latin American trends to the left, in ways almost unprecedented. The left’s policies are popular enough to survive opposing rightist governments. Their candidates are consistently competitive in elections, even when losing. How, then, can the left maintain this political advantage?
Harnessing the Pink Tide
The left must avoid the issues that led to its fall from power: corruption and economic turmoil. Left-wing parties must also recognise that they will not win every election, incentivizing them to play by and strengthen democratic rules to ensure the right abides by the rules as well.
Corruption brought down Brazilian President Luiz Inácio da Silva, Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, and Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas. Corruption charges cloud the presidencies of Michelle Bachelet of Chile, Kirchner, and Dilma Rousseff of Brazil. Empowering anti-corruption candidates, avoiding corrupt temptations, and creating and strengthening anti-corruption initiatives will not only establish the left as strong anti-corruption advocates, but also ensure they no longer get embroiled, and ultimately undone, by corruption scandals.
Lead prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol speaks on behalf of Operation Car Wash after it won the 2017 Allard Prize for International Integrity. (Wikimedia Commons)
Economic turmoil also played a role in the left’s mid-2010s electoral defeats. As Chinese growth slowed and the commodities boom ended, the left faced increasingly challenging economic conditions and fewer funds for social programs. Failure to effectively manage the economy led to turmoil in multiple countries as growth slowed or reversed. Thus, the left must prepare well for economic downturns and prioritise effective economic management during such periods.
Lastly, the left must play by and strengthen democratic rules. Its new electoral competitiveness requires that the left prepare for transitions of power to the right as it will sometimes lose elections. Acceding to and strengthening democratic norms helps ensure that the right plays by those rules as well and negate the negative anti-democratic stigma created by Venezuela’s ‘left.’
In this unprecedented era of Latin American politics, the left has become electorally competitive. It cannot waste this moment. By avoiding corruption, avoiding economic mismanagement, and strengthening democratic rules and norms, the left can avoid the mistakes that led to the end of the Pink Tide. Only then can it harness this opportunity to meaningfully improve the lives of Latin Americans and tackle massive, systemic challenges like poverty and inequality.
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