India’s Ruling Party Unexpectedly Wins State Election

Political map of the state of Bihar after the November elections (Wikimedia Commons).

The coalition including India’s ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), achieved a surprise parliamentary majority in the state of Bihar amid the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforcing the Hindu nationalist mandate of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

“Democracy has once again won in Bihar with the blessings of the people,” tweeted Modi on November 10. “I congratulate the workers and express my heartfelt gratitude to the people of Bihar.”

Observers regarded the victory as an upset, with exit polls appearing to favor the coalition of opposition parties, and as proof of Modi’s enduring popularity despite India’s dire coronavirus situation, now having the second-highest number of cases in the world. Bihar’s voters cast more than 41 million votes amid a slower process than usual due to social distancing at polling stations. By the end, the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) held 125 out of 243 seats in Bihar’s Parliament, while the opposition held 110. 

Centered on the banks of the Ganges, Bihar is India’s third most populous state, with more than 100 million inhabitants. The state, however, also stands as one of the poorest, with only 11 percent of the population living in urban areas, and most jobs relating to agriculture or forestry. The coronavirus has hit Bihar hard, with lockdowns skyrocketing the state’s already large youth unemployment rate and forcing the return of millions of migrant workers from cities abroad. The message of the BJP clearly resonated with its populace, and its victory marks an important reinforcement for Modi and his party after their landslide win in 2019’s general election. 

Modi himself campaigned around the state, emphasizing his national achievements such as the building of a Hindu temple in Ayodhya on the legendary site of deity Ram’s birth, the removal of Kashmir’s special status, and the recent defense against Chinese troops in Ladakh. The opposition, on the other hand, focused on an economic message. 31-year-old Tejashwi Prasad Yadav, leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and leader of the opposition, drew huge crowds as he promised hundreds of thousands of government jobs to the unemployed Bihari youth.

The BJP, who allied themselves with Bihar’s incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, effectively countered Yadav’s message by linking him to his father, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Bihar’s former Chief Minister who remains imprisoned on corruption charges. Although Yadav’s RJD made gains, its coalition, a left-wing alliance which included the Indian National Congress and the Communist Party of India, could not overcome the BJP’s. 

As a poor state, caste politics typically dominate the Bihari scene, which makes the BJP’s victory even more surprising, as the party has traditionally held the image of an upper-caste Hindu party. Modi’s own low-caste background likely helped soften the BJP’s image towards the oppressed castes, allowing them to more closely identify with their Hindu identity, rather than their class. 

Ultimately, the BJP’s victory shows that voters did not blame the party or Modi himself for the coronavirus spread or the resulting economic downturn, and it affirms the enduring power of Hindu nationalism.