Third Time's not the Charm as Latest Ceasefire Fails in Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict

Azerbaijani special forces train. (Wikimedia Commons)

The third ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan has failed. Fighting continued and intensified after October 26—the intended start of the truce—with each side blaming the other for breaking the agreement.

This ceasefire was the latest of three attempts to halt fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, an Armenian-populated enclave in Azerbaijan. The truce was brokered by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who met with the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan separately.

Russia, which heads the Minsk Group with the U.S. and France, arranged the first ceasefire. Working under the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the Minsk Group has attempted to negotiate peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan since their war in the 1990s. 

That war began in Nagorno-Karabakh when ethnic Armenians in the region declared independence from Azerbaijan in 1991. A ceasefire in 1994 ended the conflict, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh recognized internationally as a territory in Azerbaijan but under de facto control of ethnic Armenians. Although clashes have occurred since the 1994 ceasefire, none have reached the scale of the current conflict, which began on September 27.

Before the third ceasefire, Azerbaijan forces progressed toward a key area connecting Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. International experts are concerned a humanitarian crisis could occur if the fighting continues on its current trajectory. The day after the latest ceasefire was supposed to take hold, on October 27, Azerbaijan accused Armenian forces of a missile strike killing four civilians, while Armenia accused Azerbaijan of firing on its border units.