After the Armistice: Turkey and Russia Establish a Joint Peacekeeping Center
Thousands of soldiers from both Azerbaijan and Armenia were killed in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict earlier this year. (Wikimedia Commons)
The defense ministries of Russia and Turkey have agreed to establish a joint peacekeeping center in Nagorno-Karabakh to enforce the implementation of the November 9 ceasefire. Many of the details of the agreement are still unknown, but both countries are expected to deploy drones, which saw extensive military use in the conflict, to watch for treaty violations.
Nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers are already stationed in the disputed region, and their presence has been described by experts as “clearly a win for Moscow.” Russia, despite aligning more closely with Armenia, largely stayed neutral in the conflict, in sharp contrast to Turkey, which openly endorsed Azerbaijan. The subsequent Azerbaijani victory, therefore, is also a strategic victory for Turkey, and a sign of its commitment to reducing Russian influence in Transcaucasia.
Though Turkish involvement in the joint peacekeeping center is believed to be limited to a team of observers—as Russia has repeatedly and explicitly insisted—Ankara has made clear that it will not abandon the idea of deploying soldiers in the area. In a decision last month, the Parliament granted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan permission to send troops to Nagorno-Karabakh for one year to monitor the ceasefire. Given that Turkey and Azerbaijan are close allies, there is a possibility Baku may request Turkey’s presence if they feel the need for a counter-Russian presence.
Given the newfound influence of Moscow and Ankara, the joint peacekeeping center puts into question the efficacy of the OSCE Minsk Group, an intergovernmental organization founded in 1992 to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh border dispute. Russia, along with France and the United States, is a permanent member. In contrast, Turkey is only a “participating state.” Erdoğan recently criticized the Minsk Group for its purported inability to solve the crisis. The joint peacekeeping center may usurp the authority of the Minsk Group in Nagorno-Karabakh if it proves to be more capable of enforcing peace. This would be another diplomatic victory for Turkey, as it would have more influence over Transcaucasian affairs while also limiting outside influence.
The U.S. government apparently fears this possibility is already becoming a reality. A press statement issued by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo soon after negotiations for the agreement began urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to “re-engage as soon as possible” with the Minsk Group. Additionally, the state department pledged $5 million in humanitarian aid, doubling the amount previously invested annually in both countries.
A similar arrangement of Russo-Turkish peacekeeping currently exists in Syria; both countries patrol the war-torn province of Idlib. However, unlike in Syria, Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh are currently deployed to protect a country that aligns more closely with their top regional adversary. Considering that Turkey only plans to commit scant resources to fulfill its obligations, perhaps they will reap the national security gains of a pacified Nagorno-Karabakh and a stable ally in Azerbaijan without so much as lifting a finger.