U.S.-Taliban Talks Result in Temporary Truce
Secretary of Defense Mark Esper announces the success of the peace talks (U.S. Dept of Defense)
The United States and the Taliban have reached a seven-day temporary truce, a possible pathway to a peace agreement in the almost two-decade-old war in Afghanistan. AP reports that the specifics of the deal were arranged by Trump’s Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban representatives in Doha, Qatar. Although Secretary of Defense Mark Esper did not specify when the week-long de-escalation would take effect, President Donald Trump said, “I think there’s a good chance that we’ll have a deal…. We’re going to know over the next two weeks.”
The seven-day ceasefire marks the latest development in talks between the U.S. and the Taliban, which began a year ago. Trump rejected a similar agreement at the last minute in September 2019 after the Taliban claimed responsibility for an attack that killed an American soldier and 11 others. Three months later, the U.S. revived talks with the Taliban in Qatar.
As diplomatic efforts have stopped and stalled, the situation on the ground has been tipping in the Taliban’s favor. The Washington Times reported that several military observers believe the Taliban is the strongest it has been since 9/11. Furthermore, U.S. government analysis shows the armed group is in possession of the most land it has held since the conflict began in 2001. According to Afghan defense officials, Taliban-controlled territory amounts to approximately 40 percent of the country’s area. The Taliban’s violence is also on the rise; the U.S. special inspector general for Afghan reconstruction reported that the Taliban and other anti-government actors perpetrated a record number of attacks in the three months since the last U.S.-Taliban negotiations.
According to an anonymous U.S. official, if the seven-day plan succeeds in lowering violence levels, a more substantive peace agreement would follow in ten days. Under such a peace agreement, the Taliban would agree to commence negotiations with the Afghan government in March, commit to a total cease-fire, and deny support for Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. In exchange, the U.S. would establish a timetable for the incremental withdrawal of its forces contingent on the Taliban’s compliance.
During the week-long truce period, U.S. and Taliban representatives will keep a close eye on violence levels from a joint office in Doha, Qatar, to determine if de-escalation is indeed taking place. Zalmay Khalilzad assured U.S. senators that none of the approximately 13,000 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan would be withdrawn if the Taliban fails to hold up their end of the bargain. However, the Taliban is far from the only concern in the region’s stability. A senior U.S. official worried that non-Taliban sponsored attacks might be carried out to deliberately subvert the peace process.
After derailment last September, the week-long U.S.-Taliban truce has breathed new life into prospects for peace in Afghanistan. In both the U.S. and Afghanistan, this development remains an encouraging sign of progress. President Ashraf Ghani has praised the breakthrough in negotiations as a “welcoming development.” Domestically, Trump may benefit from a boost in popular opinion if he manages to bring an end to the unpopular war––a longstanding campaign promise––before the November election.