Greece and Turkey have never been easy neighbors in the Aegean Sea. But in the past few months, things between them have only gotten worse: issues both old and new have flared up, threatening to draw tensions around the Mediterranean to a boiling point.

Take It Way, Way Back.

These tensions go way back. Britain’s Foreign Policy Centre offers a good primer on the history of Greece-Turkey relations, but, to summarize: Greeks won their independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1830, the modern Turkish Republic was founded on the defeat of the Greek army in 1922, Greeks in Turkey and Muslim Turks in Greece were persecuted through much of the 20th century, Greeks and Turks fought a bloody civil war over the island of Cyprus, and Turkey and Greece still argue over Cyprus.

Cyprus remains divided between an internationally recognized South and a Turkish supported North. (Wikimedia Commons)

Cyprus features prominently in the calculations of both sides. The memory of its 1970s civil war lies heavy on Cypriots and their Turkish or Greek allies. Turkey (and no other state) recognizes the Turkish Republic of North Cyprus as a state. The rest of the world, except Turkey, acknowledges Cyprus, which has sovereignty in name only over the territory of North Cyprus. The two halves of Cyprus have attempted rapprochement and have discussed reunification recently, but recent developments may derail this progress.

Total Drama Islands

Oh, and the islands. More than 3,000 islands dot the Aegean Sea. Greece claims most of them, even ones adjacent to Turkey’s coastline. International treaties have left many of the smaller islands and rock formations unaccounted for, and these gaps in international law have often become openings for conflict. The two countries last came close to war around 25 years ago over the islet of Imia/Kardak. Even now, Turkey and Greece stand at odds over the islet’s status.

More than 3000 islands dot the Aegean. Greece claims most of them. (Wikipedia) — *More than 3000 islands dot the Aegean. Greece claims most of them.* *(Wikipedia)*

Turkey has accused Greece of attempting to militarize its islands and unilaterally own the Aegean Sea. Greece charges Turkey with violations of its sovereignty. Escalation remains tantalizingly easy. Turkish fighter jets cross into Greek airspace more than 40 times a day, with occasional fatalities. Since both Greece and Turkey are NATO allies, confrontation should not normally lead to war.

Drilling Rights & Drilling Wrongs

Nothing seems to fuel conflicts like the discovery of prospective energy reserves. Last year, ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum jointly discovered a gigantic natural gas reserve off the coast of Cyprus, kicking off a search for more energy reserves across the Eastern Mediterranean. Talks have been in the works to create an Eastern Mediterranean gas market, combining the Cypriot fields with large reserves off the coast of Egypt and Israel. Greece, Cyprus, and Israel agreed last month to construct a pipeline from Cypriot natural gas to European consumers. US Assistant Secretary of Energy Francis Fanon recently commented on the development, saying, “Energy really is that catalyst for cooperation.”

He may stand corrected. Cyprus’ inclusion in an eastern Mediterranean gas market left Turkey in the cold; it maintains that any viable gas pipeline project must include it. Ignoring sanction threats (and probably international law), Turkey has moved forward with its plans to drill the waters around Cyprus ― after all, it does not recognize Cyprus and claims that it is exploiting the area on behalf of North Cyprus. Turkey has stopped Israeli and Cypriot ships and has grown more aggressive about exercising its maritime power in the region.

Greece refuses to back down: in violation of international law, Greece has deployed military forces to its islands. Taunting Turkey, the Greek government announced plans to buy a squadron of U.S.-built F-35 fighter jets, potentially granting it an edge over the Turkish military in any conflict over the Aegean. Turkey was suspended from the F-35 program last year after it purchased Russian-made air-defense missiles.

Lines in the Water

A few hundred miles south of Greece’s militarizing islands is a war you should have heard of by now. The near-decade-long Libyan Civil War has picked up lately, with the Turkey-supported, UN-recognized Tripoli government fending off a challenge by Russia-backed warlord-general Khalifa Haftar, based in Libya’s East. The civil war has become a proxy war, and, yes, Greece was drawn in, too.

When Germany brought together foreign ministers and governments across the world to negotiate a ceasefire to the Libyan conflict, it neglected to invite Greece, saying that Greece had no stake in the events in Libya. Greece vehemently disagreed: Turkey and Libya’s Tripoli government recently and bilaterally demarcated new maritime borders between them, cutting out sovereign Greek and Cypriot maritime claims entirely. These lines in the waves cut through where Greece and Israel plan to create their undersea EastMed gas pipelines and come dangerously close to Crete, Greece’s southernmost and largest island.

Libya's Tripoli government and Turkey agreed on a shared maritime zone that cuts through Greece's exclusive economic zone. (Reddit)

France, involved in Libya on the side of Haftar’s rebels, has set itself up against Turkey, its enemy by proxy. Since Greece is also at odds with Turkey, France has stepped up its cooperation with Greece by sending its warships to the Eastern Mediterranean. French President Emmanuel Macron described Turkish actions as a “violation of the Berlin agreement,” the recent and failed Libyan ceasefire deal. The Greek prime minister, appreciating France’s willingness to be belligerent against Turkey, called the warships “guarantors of peace.”

At Odds & Without Ends

“I truly believe that Greece and Turkey can figure things out; it is in both our interests,” said Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias on February 3. In light of simply how much is going on in the eastern Mediterranean, his rose-tinted claim may not hold up to scrutiny. The eastern Mediterranean has never been without conflict, but the past decade has seen dormant tensions boil back up, not least due to the promise of control over vast new energy resources. Even the Libyan conflict has worsened due to the promise of oil revenues.

With Greece growing increasingly dependent on America and Europe for political and economic support, and with Turkey deepening its relationship with Russia and the Middle East despite the fact that its proxies are fighting Russian proxies in both Syria and Libya, the two countries have been drawn into different spheres of power. This separation potentially complicates the relationship between Turkey and Europe, especially if Turkey wants to continue leveraging itself as Europe’s connection to Asia and the Middle East.

It is not at all certain that actual war would break out. Greece and Turkey, after all, remain together in NATO; a conflict that tears apart NATO does not yet seem to be in their interests. But, for European planners who want to keep Europe at peace with its neighbors and for NATO strategists who need to unify the alliance against Russia and other threats, such a nasty public spat with so many moving parts certainly keeps them up at night.