Erdogan and Putin Edge Toward Alliance as Libya Talks Devolve

Presidents Erdogan and Putin met on January 19 prior to the Berlin Peace Conference on Libya. (Kremlin)

Following numerous delays, Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar left Russia without signing a cease-fire deal to end the ongoing nine months of fighting in the nation, though Russia’s foreign ministry claims progress toward an agreement is still in the works, Deutsche Welle reports.

"We will pursue our efforts in this direction. For now, a definitive result has not been achieved," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said of the agreement, which outlined a tentative plan for permanent peace following a new and “fragile” ceasefire, according to Deutsche Welle. 

The negotiations, mediated by diplomats from Turkey and Russia, lasted hours, but the warring sides did not meet face to face. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed Haftar had “run away” from talks, and he threatened action from Ankara against Haftar’s forces should Haftar sustain fighting. Turkey has already sent troops to Libya to fight against Haftar on behalf of the GNA, according to Deutsche Welle.

“We will not hesitate to teach a deserved lesson to the putschist Haftar if he continues his attacks on the country's legitimate administration and our brothers in Libya,” Erdogan said.

Russia and Turkey have emerged as unlikely allies in North Africa and the Middle East. Though their bilateral relations were initially marked by tension, culminating in the shooting-down of a Russian fighter jet near the Syrian border, they have since cultivated a relationship that tends to involve both powers gaining a foothold in nations undergoing political turmoil, reports Al Jazeera. 

Independent experts speculate that “[Libya] could… be Russia’s new Syria,” referring to Russia’s entrance into the Syrian power vacuum as the nation negotiates peace talks. During a recent visit to Egypt, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Russia's “task is to help the Libyan people overcome their current differences of opinion, and come up with a stable agreement,” according to Deutsche Welle.

Although their tentative tacit alliance emerged in Syria, it appears that both Russia and Syria intend to perpetuate their intervention in Libya as well. According to Al Jazeera, although the two nations constitute opposing sides in the conflict, their attempt to broker a ceasefire through their mutual relationship indicates their possible course toward working together in order to exploit Libya’s resources, particularly their rich oil fields.  

While Russia has avoided taking a clear side in the conflict between Haftar and the UN-backed Libyan government in Tripoli, Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said that “it's obvious that Moscow is supporting Haftar" behind the scenes, reports Deutsche Welle. This would align their political interests with those of Turkey, similar to their agreement in Syria in October 2019, when each nation agreed to cease advancement, according to The New York Times. Such a move allowed both Erdogan and Putin to gain a foothold without one undermining the other.

Turkish, Russian, and Libyan leaders will meet in Berlin later this month to finalize a permanent agreement.