Khomeini Triumphant: Hardliners win 77% of seats in Iranian Legislative Election

The man with a mandate: Supreme Ruler Khomeini (Wikipedia)

The Iranian Legislative election resulted in a landslide victory for conservative factions led by Iranian Supreme Ruler Ali Ayatollah Khomeini on February 21. As a result of the elections, conservatives now control most branches of the Iranian government for the first time since 2013. The election results represent continued support for existing governmental policies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, as well as the continued development of nuclear weapons.

This election came amid increased tensions between Iran and its rivals, especially Saudi Arabia and the United States. The U.S. killing of Qassem Suleimani in January, and the United States’ continued economic sanctions, have led to resentment in Iran, perhaps explaining election results. Additionally, after Suleimani’s killing, the Iranian Guardianship Council (which is in charge of preventing “un-Islamic candidates” from running in elections) disqualified many moderates and centrists, leading to a landslide election. 

The Principalists won 191 seats in the election, compared to the Reformists’ 16 and the Independents’ 34. One of the new legislators is Baqer Qalibaf, the former national police chief, former mayor of Tehran, and close friend of Suleimani. The election, however, had 42.5 percent turnout, the lowest in Iran’s history. 

The victory for the conservatives, however, does not necessarily mean a total rejection of reformism in Iran, according to Ariane Tabatabai, a Political Scientist at the Rand Corporation specializing in the Middle East. She believes that a legislative failure to address the many problems of young Iranians will lead to an even greater reformist coalition that will eventually change Iran. 

The new Iranian government faces many economic problems. The Iranian economy, never very strong, has been “damaged by U.S. sanctions.” Iran’s oil exports, one of its largest sources of revenue, recently reached the lowest point in the history of Iran. The prices of basic goods, including food, have doubled since 2016. Both inflation and unemployment are high, as the Iranian GDP is on track to decline by nine percent this year, according to the World Bank. 

For Khomeini, the Principalists’ victory represents an acceptance of Iran’s Middle Eastern policy, and it may lead to an escalation of tensions with the United States. Furthermore, the results of the election make “things much more difficult for safeguarding the nuclear agreement,” according to Adnan Tabatabai, an Iran analyst and co-founder of the Bonn-based Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient. 

The new government clearly has a multitude of problems to handle. However, it also claims to have clear mandate from the Iranian people to continue growing both its political influence in the Middle East and its nuclear program.