Compass Elections: Montenegro Elections 101
Montenegro is holding an election for its 81-seat parliament on August 30. Here is what you need to know.
Milo Đukanović, the President of Montenegro. (Wikimedia Commons)
East or West?
Since Montenegro gained independence from Serbia in 2006, its politics have been dominated by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS). The DPS is the successor to the League of Communists of Montenegro, which governed Montenegro while it was a constituent republic of Yugoslavia after World War II. Montenegrin president Milo Đukanović has also been a permanent fixture of the country’s politics: he rose to prominence during the breakup of Yugoslavia in 1989, and he has served as prime minister (1991-98, 2003-06, 2008-10, 2012-16), president, (1998-2002, 2018-present), and party chair (1998-present).
Đukanović’s supporters exalt him as the “father of the nation,” as he was one of the key proponents of Montenegrin independence, and he helped orchestrate the 2006 independence referendum. However, critics have accused him of corruption, affiliation with organized crime, and ignoring needed reforms. Đukanović’s firmly pro-Western stance further complicates the situation: he has been negotiating for EU membership since 2012, and he added Montenegro to NATO in 2017 as the military alliance’s latest member, which wasn’t universally well-received. Russia allegedly backed an attempted coup before the 2016 Montenegrin elections in order to prevent Montenegro entering NATO.
The Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), an alliance consisting mainly of Serb nationalist parties seeking closer ties to Serbia and Russia, supports the opposition party, making this election unpredictable. Whether or not Montenegrins constitute a distinct ethnic group from Serbs is a touchy issue, but according to the 2011 census, 45 percent of the population in Montenegro identify as ethnic Montenegrins, while around 29 percent identify as ethnic Serbs. Most of both are Eastern Orthodox Christians, of which around 71 percent belong to the SPC (the rest belong to the rival Montenegrin Orthodox Church). The SPC’s opposition originated in a fight against a law passed in December 2019 which would allow the state to take ownership of church buildings and religious sites built before 1918 (when Montenegro became a part of Yugoslavia). The not-yet-enforced law sparked massive protests led by the SPC, which only quieted down after the government instituted a ban on public gatherings (except on church grounds) to prevent the spread of COVID-19 (which so far has caused more than 4,700 cases and 93 deaths in Montenegro).
Parties at Play
Montenegro’s 81-seat parliament is elected using a closed list proportional representation electoral system, and representatives are elected from a single nationwide constituency. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method with a three percent threshold. However, parties representing ethnic minorities are given an exemption from that threshold.
The Government
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS): Montenegro’s longtime pro-European populist ruling party and a successor of the socialist-era League of Communists of Montenegro. Despite its name, DPS is a big-tent party positioned left of center, which helps it maintain its political dominance. DPS currently has 35 seats in parliament (having won 41.4 percent of the vote in 2016), and is governing as the leader of a coalition under Prime Minister Duško Marković.
Social Democrats of Montenegro (SD): Pro-European, split from the Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP) in 2015 over support for the ruling DPS. Ivan Brajović, the current Speaker of the Parliament, leads this party, which currently holds only two seats (receiving 3.3 percent of the vote in 2016). SD is part of a parliamentary caucus with the centrist Liberal Party (LP), which has only one member. LP does not run in the election, but is instead given candidate spots on the DPS list.
Bosniak Party (BS): a pro-European social conservative party representing the Bosniak minority, currently holding only two seats with 3.2 percent of the vote in 2016.
Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI): a pro-European social conservative party representing the Croat minority, holding one seat with 0.47 percent of the vote in 2016.
New Democratic Force (Forca): a pro-European social conservative party representing the Albanian minority, currently having one seat with 1.2 percent of the vote in 2016. It is running in the 2020 election as part of the Albanian List, a coalition of Albanian parties, though several other ethnic Albanian parties refused to join the coalition and are running separately.
The Opposition
For the Future of Montenegro: the main right-wing opposition coalition, made up of the Eurosceptic conservative Democratic Front (DF), the pro-EU but anti-NATO, economically-left but social conservative Socialist Party of Montenegro (SNP), and the conservative Popular Movement. The DF has 17 seats and won 20.3 percent of the vote in 2016. The SNP has three seats and Popular Movement seven seats, with both elected as part of the opposition Key Coalition, which had won 11 percent of the vote. The coalition, led by university professor Zdravko Krivokapić, is supported by many ethnic Serbs and leaders of the Serbian Orthodox Church. It supports closer ties with Serbia and Russia.
Peace is Our Nation: the other more moderate opposition coalition, presenting itself as multiethnic, made up of the conservative liberal Democratic Montenegro (with eight seats in Parliament) and the liberal conservative DEMOS (with two seats in Parliament), in addition to the extra-parliamentary New Left and PUPI.
United Reform Action (URA): a pro-European social liberal/green party opposing corruption. It has two seats, running in 2016 as part of the opposition Key Coalition.
Social Democratic Party of Montenegro (SDP): Pro-European and historically a partner of DPS, having worked closely with it to campaign for independence. SDP left the ruling coalition in 2016 and ran independently, winning 5.2 percent of the vote and four seats.
What Next?
The DPS still has a good chance to win a plurality in the election, but not a majority. The latest polls have it at 35.1 percent against For the Future of Montenegro’s 25.9 percent and Peace is Our Nation’s 15.5 percent. The results are shaping up to be contentious, with both sides flinging accusations of electoral meddling and fraud. Đukanović had accused Russia and Serbia of interfering in the election through the Serbian Orthodox Church, while the opposition is claiming that the Montenegrin government is using various methods, including diaspora voters, to rig the election. The watchdog organization Freedom House had downgraded Montenegro from “democracy” to “hybrid regime” earlier this year, citing strongman tactics employed by Đukanović and negative development related to corruption, judicial independence, and media freedom. In addition to ethnic/religious tensions, economic issues (with Montenegro’s major tourism industry being heavily affected by COVID-19) and corruption could also play a role in voters’ decisions. As massive protests over the disputed presidential election in Belarus still rage on, Montenegro’s parliamentary election could head the same way.