Compass World: Strongmen and the Pandemic
Xi Jinping isn’t leaving the seat of power anytime soon. (
Back in Style
“Across the world—from Russia to China and from India to Egypt—macho leadership is back in fashion.” —Gideon Rachman, The Financial Times.
Before COVID-19 took over the world, the international political arena was already experiencing the rise of a different contagion: that of the strongman in power. Like a virus, the phenomenon spread—from Syria to Hungary to Italy to the United States, strongmen were rising up to the podium, calling for a return to the glory days. Macho men were en vogue again.
Chinese President Xi Jinping removed term limits on his presidency. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega crushed the free press, and with it, his most vocal critics. In the United States, President Donald Trump began to draw on populist support, revising trade agreements and implementing travel bans.
These strongmen shook their fists at the idea of “political correctness.” They unabashedly broke the rules, questioned liberal norms, and sought unlimited power. They created personality cults that supported their country-first policies. Around the world, nationalism was on the rise, and globalization was declining.
So when COVID-19 came calling, why didn’t these strongmen immediately close the gates?
It’s Business as Usual
Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro have spun anti-lockdown narratives for months. (Wikimedia Commons)
Citizens have been quick to criticize world leaders for being slow to react, but the strongmen weren’t slow to react. In fact, they responded rather quickly. Their decision? Ignore the problem.
On January 18, Trump received his first warning about the novel coronavirus. On January 22, he denied the danger of the disease. “We have it totally under control,” he told CNBC. He continued to downplay the situation until late July. In a similar vein, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson skipped five emergency meetings called to discuss COVID-19 throughout January and February. As other countries were locking down, his administration encouraged people to continue socializing.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rejected the idea of a lockdown without hesitation. Even after testing positive for COVID-19, he continued to push a narrative that urged people to fight social distancing measures and “face up to it [the virus].” He fired health ministers and doctors that contradicted his message, routinely referring to the coronavirus as “a small flu.”
These actions combine to help explain why these strongmen have not taken the pandemic as an opportunity to shut down their countries’ borders. The main reason: strongmen value their image. Bolsonaro’s admonishment to “face the disease like men” makes clear the air of machismo these leaders want to project. Riding on promises to fix all their country’s ills, such as Brexit, or to make their country great again, strongmen are loath to admit that anything is wrong. Image is everything.
To these men, strongly reacting to the pandemic, or even admitting that it exists, makes them look weak. And so, sitting on their thrones of nationalism and pride, strongmen do nothing—until it’s too late.
An Era of Women Leaders
Tsai Ing-Wen took measures against COVID-19 in December. (Wikimedia Commons)
If strongmen aren’t stepping up to the plate, who is?
Many countries have reacted in a timely and effective way, and countries led by women are not an exception. When Time ranked countries by their performance in handling COVID-19, two of the top five countries, as well as the runner-up, were headed by women.
In Taiwan, where President Tsai Ing-wen reacted quickly by screening travelers for COVID-19 as early as December, there currently are only 503 cases, as of September 17. In the last five months, Taiwan has had no local transmissions. None. This is remarkable—in January, experts had predicted Taiwan would have the second highest number of COVID-19 cases, after China.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern made headlines when she implemented a strict, month-long lockdown in New Zealand back in March, only three weeks after the country’s first case. She communicated with her constituents through press conferences and Facebook Live videos throughout the period. And as of September 17, there are 1,458 confirmed cases in the country. Only 70 of those are active.
From Taiwan and New Zealand to Finland and Germany, women leaders have handled the crisis with compassion and urgency, in a sharp contrast to the strongmen.
Democracy in Danger
Hungary’s “coronavirus law” temporarily gave Viktor Orban unlimited power in office. (Wikimedia Commons)
But strongmen may find ways to save themselves.
The pandemic has shaken the international community, and pre-existing international tensions have intensified over the last few months. Ukraine has blamed Belarus for the hundreds of Hasidic Jews trying to cross over their shared border. Turkey and Greece are arguing over border policy and misinformation. Many countries are feeling the economic impact of prolonged pandemic-related safety measures. Some have declared national emergencies.
This is where strongmen reenter the picture. They have heavily borrowed their rhetoric surrounding the pandemic from wartime speech. We consider COVID-19 the public enemy; we aim for collective survival. Doctors are soldiers on the frontlines. Public health has become a matter of public security. Strongmen are poised to take advantage of this opening.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already seized the opportunity. At the end of March, Orban declared a controversial measure to grant practically unlimited powers to the government. It also created two permanent additions to the criminal code, sentencing people who break quarantine law to prison for up to eight years, and subjecting the “dissemination of false information” to even stricter regulation. The legislation received criticism from all quarters, from opposition parties to international organizations, for its vulnerability to abuse and its lack of an expiration date.
These powers were retracted in June. However, human rights groups claim that the retraction may open up new paths for the government to rule by decree, therefore eroding the rule of law in Hungary.
Democracies in Latin America have found themselves postponing elections. Argentina moved elections from March to late September, Chile delayed a constitutional referendum until October, and Paraguay’s party primaries have been pushed back for potentially a year. In this state of emergency that some leaders have used to expand their powers, incumbents are staying in office longer than expected.
Experts theorize that nationalism (or “coronationalism”) may become more appealing in the midst of the pandemic as people look inward to find community support. But the opposite may be true, as countries share resources to combat COVID-19 and communities across the world find common ground for solidarity. Strongmen leaders might just become a thing of the past.