Compass Elections: Italy Elections Update
Italians headed to the polls on September 20 and 21 to elect new regional leadership and to vote on several amendments to the country’s constitution. The amendments, approved with nearly 70 percent of the vote, will reduce the number of members of the bicameral Italian Parliament. In the regional elections, the right-wing coalition made some gains but generally had an underwhelming night.
A joint session of the Italian Parliament in 2015. (Wikimedia Commons)
Shrinking the Stage
By Graham Hillmann
The two-day referendum was the latest development in a years-long campaign to reform the structure of the Italian government. In 2016, a set of constitutional amendments, which included provisions to reduce the Italian Senate to just 100 members and strip the body of most of its legislative powers, was proposed by the government of then-Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, of the center-left Democratic Party (PD). These reforms proved controversial, with accusations from both rival politicians and prominent legal scholars that they were ill-conceived and undemocratic. In the end, the amendments were rejected by the Italian people during a December referendum, with nearly 60 percent of the electorate voting “No” and Renzi resigning shortly thereafter.
Italy’s appetite for reform wasn’t quelled for long. Three years later, in 2019, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government proposed a different set of amendments These reforms would lower the number of seats in the Chamber of Deputies from 630 to 400 and the number of senators from 315 to 200. These less radical reforms received wider support from across the political spectrum, with a nearly unanimous majority of Parliament voting in favor. It was these amendments that were then sent to a popular referendum, originally scheduled for March 29 and later postponed due to the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.
The “Yes” campaign was championed by Conte himself, whose tenure as Prime Minister has been eventful. A political independent and university professor by trade, Conte initially became PM as a compromise between the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) and Matteo Salvini’s right-wing League, who formed a coalition government after experiencing massive gains in the 2018 general election at the expense of Renzi’s Democratic Party. However, just one year later, the League rescinded its support for Conte’s government after growing tensions with the M5S, in an attempt to provoke snap elections. Conte tendered his resignation, but the M5S and PD managed to form a coalition of their own, again with the independent Conte at the helm. Now in his second cabinet, Conte led Italy through the COVID-19 pandemic, with his performance earning high marks and rocketing his approval rating to upwards of 60 percent. Indeed, his performance has likely been an asset to the “Yes” campaign’s cause.
The “Yes” campaign also received the support of all three of Italy’s largest parties: M5S, PD, and the League. The anti-establishment M5S in particular has long advocated for parliamentary reform, arguing that the current Parliament is too large and costly to maintain. Economists agree that the reforms will save upwards of 500 million euros per five year parliamentary term. While the three major parties all supported the “Yes” campaign, not all parties were in favor, though the split has fallen along strength lines rather than ideological lines. Minor parties generally supported the “No” campaign, largely out of fears that it will be more difficult to compete with fewer seats up for the taking.
A “Yes” victory was universally expected prior to the referendum, with all polling showing at least a twenty point lead over “No.” Sure enough, “Yes” won with a forty point margin, with 70 percent of voters from a variety of regions voting in favor. Minister of Foreign Affairs Luigi Di Maio, a former leader of M5S, hailed the referendum’s “historic result,” noting it as a win for the M5S and the anti-establishment populists. Nicola Zingaretti, president of the Lazio region (where Rome is located) and head of the PD, also welcomed the result, proclaiming that “a season of reforms is opening up in front of us." Conte’s M5S-PD government appears well-positioned to survive until the next general election, which is scheduled to take place no later than 2023 and will be the first election to feature the downsized Parliament.
Regional Blues
By Graham Hillmann and Kyle Wang
The current party control of the presidencies/governorships of Italian regions.
Elections for Campania, Liguria, Marche, Apulia, Tuscany, Veneto, and Aosta Valley took place on September 20-21. The party control of the presidency of Aosta Valley is as of yet undetermined, but the League came first with 24 percent of the vote in its regional council election. The previous president of Aosta Valley is currently serving as its interim president.
(Original from Wikimedia Commons, edited by Kyle Wang)
Elections also took place in seven of Italy’s 20 regions at the same time as the referendum. Turnout was relatively high despite the ongoing pandemic. Although the League’s right-wing coalition made gains, with the far-right Brothers of Italy (FDI) flipping the Marche region, it failed to flip the valuable left-wing stronghold of Tuscany. This result reinforced the narrative that Salvini’s popularity has flatlined in recent months, especially after his party rescinded its support for Conte’s original coalition government—a move widely considered to be a grave strategic error after M5S and PD were able to form a coalition of their own.
Salvini’s declining fortunes have prompted discussion of an intra-party leadership challenge from Luca Zaia, the popular president of the northeast Veneto region. Zaia sailed to reelection by a wide margin during this week’s regional elections, winning 77 percent of the vote. His popularity can largely be attributed to his successful handling of the pandemic, rather than any obvious sympathies for the League. The victory of the FDI, which has roots in the neo-fascist movement and has Benito Mussolini’s great-grandson as a member, also indicates that it may be poised to overtake the League as the most prominent party of the Italian right, a further sign of the decline of the League.
On the left-wing side, the regional elections proved to be a relief for the Democratic Party. Earlier polls had suggested that the PD was only likely to win in Campania, the region around Naples. Instead, it managed to hold on to three of the four regions it controlled, only losing Marche to the right-wing coalition. Much like Zaia in Veneto, the PD’s candidate in Campania, Vincenzo De Luca, won reelection with a comfortable 70 percent of the vote, enjoying an increase in popularity from his handling of the pandemic—De Luca had gone viral on social media earlier this year for threatening party-goers with flamethrowers.
In any case, despite the referendum victory being a win for the Five Star Movement, it had a disappointing showing in the regional elections, winning only a single-digit share of the vote in all the regions holding elections. With M5S weakened on the regional level, it seems that their partner in the government, the PD, will remain in the driver’s seat on the national level—at least for the time being.