Climate Crossroads: Consequences of Climate Inaction in the Middle East
This piece is part of the Climate Crossroads series. Read the rest of the series here.
An oil fire burns outside Kuwait City after Operation Desert Storm. (Picryl)
Although the dangers of human-driven climate change continue to gain more traction across the world, the actions taken by national governments to address the problem do not show much concern about the seriousness of its potential impact. Certainly, many world leaders are aware of the consequences of climate change, but many world leaders also appear to not grasp the severity of the cost of inaction, or the reality of living in a world significantly hotter than the present.
Already, some climate experts have concluded that the previous goal of limiting the Earth’s overheating by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (as per the Paris Agreement of 2015) will not be met and that the goalposts should be moved to 2°C or more. Even reaching that new goal post will result in a far more environmentally damaged globe. To illustrate the possible scenarios of global temperature increases, the Economist produced a chart to capture these potential paths.
One region in particular, the Middle East, looks to be among the worst-affected victims of climate change in the coming decades. Ironically, it is presently the biggest economic beneficiary from the exportation of the fossil fuels that have driven the current climate crisis. As a result, it is the perfect case study of the impacts that climate change will have on the future of human habitation, environmental justice, and geopolitics.
A closer analysis of the Middle East and its lack of response against climate change highlights the urgent need for action as well as the consequences of further inaction by world leaders.
Infertile Crescent
From wildfires in Canada to desertification in Mali, almost every country has by now experienced the negative impacts of climate change. However, in the coming decades, the population of the Middle East will be hard hit by climate crises that will be among the most severe around the globe.
The biggest challenge that Middle Eastern countries will face is extreme heat. While the Middle East is already one of the hottest regions in the world, climate change may cause some parts of the region to become uninhabitable. A study by the Max Planck Institute in Germany estimated that temperatures in the Middle East are projected to increase by as much as 4°C by 2050—twice the rate of the global average increase.
Given that scientists warn even a global temperature increase of 1.5°C would be catastrophic, extreme weather conditions will become a regular occurrence across countries such as Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. In the most hard-hit areas, summer temperatures at night could climb to 86°F (30°C) while midday summer temperatures may hit an average of 114°F (46°C). Towards the end of the century, average midday temperatures during the summer could conceivably reach 122°F (50°C). Entire regions will become arid wastelands unfit for agriculture or human habitation as heat-related deaths of stroke or dehydration and loss of crops and livestock animals devastate local populations.
These extreme changes, combined with other crises, will exacerbate the climate migration as people flee their scorched cities and villages for hopefully greener pastures.
Oil Rigged
To make matters worse, the worrying inequality between affluent and less affluent countries in the region suggests that the climate crisis will be a lot easier to weather for some and a lot worse for others.
Oil-rich countries like Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia will be much better prepared economically to deal with the coming climate catastrophe—unfortunate, given that their oil exports fuel global consumption. These petro-states can afford the necessary infrastructure to deal with climate change adequately, if not comfortably; desalination plants can produce fresh water, modernized electrical grids can deliver electricity for air conditioners in homes, and renewable sources of energy such as solar farms and wind turbines can help wean consumers off of oil and gas.
Meanwhile, poorer Middle Eastern countries will have to put up with increasingly dilapidated infrastructure and face electricity and water shortages, all while navigating increasing social disorder and political instability. Already, protests against governments in Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran have channeled local frustrations and anger against the failure of political elites to deliver basic amenities, such as fuel. In Lebanon, the government called on the army multiple times to guard fuel tankers and power plants against rioters, while in Iran state security forces killed multiple activists who blocked roads and burned tires to protest against water scarcity.
It is a distinct possibility that societal tensions will only worsen with time, as the onset of various climate crises intersects to form new issues that widen the gulf between the haves and have-nots of the Middle East.
Climate of Conflict
Against the backdrop of extreme weather conditions and environmental injustice, interstate tension could rise in the future. Already, countries are fighting over access to water resources, epitomized by the Egypt-Ethiopia clash over a dam in the Nile River.
While Ethiopia argues the dam would provide the country a much-needed source of electricity, Egypt believes it would severely restrict the flow of the Nile River and potentially cause a water shortage for Egypt. It is no surprise that the Egyptian government has been vehement in its opposition to the project, with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi warning that “all options are open” against the construction of the dam.
Conflicts such as the spat over the Egypt-Ethiopia dam will become more frequent in the future; access to water, climate refugees, and energy shortages will all become possible sources of international discord. Coupled with internal dissension as governments fail to deal with failing infrastructure and climate disasters, the Middle East and the world at large may only become more wracked with violence.
Fossil-fueled Disaster
Currently, the Middle East is on track to become one of the regions most adversely affected by climate change. Even though the region is projected to overheat much more quickly than others, its policymakers are doing little to combat that threat. Geopolitical tensions such as the ongoing Saudi Arabia-Iran conflict are increasingly taking precedence over cooperation on climate change. And rather than attempting to diversify their economies to support renewable energy production and other green measures, Middle Eastern states are instead doubling down on fossil fuels and refusing to revamp their energy grids towards green sources.
Perhaps the sad fact of the matter is that the Middle East’s only contribution to fighting climate change may be to serve as a warning for the rest of the world on what not to do.