Indonesian and Malaysian Foreign Ministers Reiterate Concerns about AUKUS Pact
Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta jointly restated their concerns about AUKUS on October 18, citing the trilateral security pact’s call for the U.S. to share nuclear submarine technology with Australia as the potential trigger of an arms race, which could destabilize the region. As Australia seemingly takes one step closer to acquiring a nuclear arsenal, the geographic proximity of Indonesia and Malaysia to China and Australia place them at risk of becoming potential flashpoints in the emerging Sino-American cold war.
The AUKUS deal was struck amid increasing tensions in the South China Sea. One month ago, the Chinese vessel Kunming-172 appeared in the North Natuna Sea, which lies within Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone. This zone, however, intersects with the territory of the South China Sea that China lays claim to based on the nine-dash line—an arbitrary set of dashes depicted on a 1947 map drawn by Chinese cartographers that encompasses around 80 percent of the South China Sea. Additionally, fishermen have identified Chinese submarine drones in Indonesian waters three times in the last 18 months. Jakarta has consistently downplayed the presence of the Chinese vessels despite regional experts stating that the grid-like pattern of the movements of the Kunming-172 is distinctive of those used by maritime seabed surveyors.
Protecting national sovereignty and thwarting intervention are key drivers of Indonesia’s foreign policy. Now, despite the threats to its national security presented by both AUKUS and China’s increasing provocations in the North Natuna Sea, Indonesia is still committed to its long-held adherence to non-alignment and resolution of regional tensions through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Indonesia’s reticence in this regard is a function of the following stark reality: Indonesia is simply not prepared to confront China’s aggressive actions in the region and infringements on Indonesian sovereignty.
Jakarta, according to the Foreign Affairs Ministry in September, expresses “deep concern over the continuing arms race and power projection in the region.” The Indonesian government has been sensitive to past anti-Chinese protests, which have caused internal unrest and insecurity. Although the Indonesian public and government want to hold China accountable under international law, they cannot risk confronting China where it would have “a ripple effect in Indonesia’s social fabric, where negative sentiment could be bigger than [they] can contain,” said Gilang Kembara, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. This explains why Indonesia’s diplomats, press, and national leaders have refrained from using language that stokes nationalist sentiment while speaking about China, AUKUS, and Sino-American tensions. Despite flagrant transgressions of Indonesian sovereignty, Jakarta cannot risk publicly scolding China.
According to Radio Free Asia, AUKUS has already engendered a schism amongst ASEAN countries. The Philippines and Singapore have expressed their support for the pact, saying it will help restore regional stability and offer a much-needed counterbalance to an increasingly assertive China. Cambodian Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn said he expects that “AUKUS will not fuel unhealthy rivalries and further escalate tension.” Beijing, unsurprisingly, has denounced the pact.
The level of widespread trepidation reported by diplomats in Malaysia and Indonesia regarding AUKUS, as compared to Australia, exposes a fundamental difference in how each country evaluates the ramifications of challenging China. Much of Southeast Asia values ties with both major superpowers and is unlikely to release explicit statements of support or opposition regarding the pact to avoid taking sides in the escalating conflict.