The crisis in Yemen is recognized by the UN as the “world’s worst humanitarian crisis.” (Flickr Commons)

I hope all of you refrained from celebrating Valentine’s Day this week because it is in fact just a capitalist marketing scheme. Speaking of capitalist marketing schemes, so are arms sales that profit off of civilian lives, which seamlessly brings us to the topic of this article.

President Joe Biden announced an end to U.S. support for the Saudi-led offensive against the Houthi rebels in Yemen earlier this month. The announcement was long-awaited among U.S. foreign policy experts and the international community.

Hungry for Peace

As the war in Yemen stretches into its sixth year, the UN has called it “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.” More than 20 million Yemeni civilians (around 80 percent of the population) require some form of humanitarian assistance resulting from internal displacement, food insecurity, cholera outbreaks, and COVID-19. More than 230,000 people have died as a result of the war.

The war in Yemen began in 2014 when the local Houthi rebels, a Zaidi Shia militia group, left the country’s northern region to take over the Sanaa and much of the northwest. They overthrew the recently “democratically” elected Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour al-Hadi, who had been put in power as a transitional regime from a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-brokered peace deal. Large protests broke out as many people claimed al-Hadi ignored the grievances of Yemeni civilians.

The state-level conflict blew into a regional crisis in early 2015, when a Saudi Arabia-led coalition, including the United Arab Emirates, intervened in Yemen to launch an offensive against the Houthis. Iran, a long-time rival of Saudi Arabia, sided with the rebel group.

The conflict met its second escalation when the Obama administration announced support for the Saudi coalition in 2015, citing explicitly it would provide “logistical and intelligence support.”

The support was not, in fact, simply logistical and intelligence-related.

Each of the backpacks, in total 44, represent a schoolboy that was killed by a 2018 Saudi bombing of a Yemeni school bus. The bomb was manufactured by U.S. defense company Lockheed-Martin. (Wikimedia Commons) — *Each of the backpacks, in total 44, represent a schoolboy that was killed by a 2018 Saudi bombing of a Yemeni school bus. The bomb was manufactured by U.S. defense company Lockheed-Martin. (Wikimedia Commons*)

Arms-Wrestling

The U.S. was and remains Saudi Arabia’s single largest arms supplier. In 2019, US imports constituted around 88 percent of Saudia Arabia’s total arms imports. On average, throughout 2015 to 2019, U.S. imports accounted for 73 percent of the state’s arms supply. The coalition uses these arms, including F-35 fighter jets and bombs, to conduct airstrikes in Yemen. These Saudi airstrikes, responsible for more than two-thirds of civilian casualties, deliberately targeted civilian centers such as schools, hospitals, and even funerals. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. increased arms sales to the coalition, citing their economic importance.

The coalition has also instituted a naval blockade on Yemen’s ports, leaving millions of people on the border of famine. The six-year offensive has been largely ineffective at forcing out the Houthis, who retain tight control over Yemen’s capital.

Months ago, there was little end in sight to the crisis. However, following Biden’s recent commitment to bring an end to the war, well… perhaps peace is a little nearer.

Biden stated in his address, “[The war in Yemen] has to end. And to underscore our commitment, we’re ending all American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arm sales.”

Before we rejoice over the U.S. finally choosing to end its complicity in war crimes and human rights violations, the future is anything but clear for Yemen. And there are several caveats to Biden’s declaration.

Cautious Optimism

First, what does the U.S. mean by “relevant arms sales?” In the same address, Biden also affirmed his administration’s intent to continue to aid Saudi Arabia in defense of its territorial sovereignty against regional rivals. Could fighter jets and bombs be categorized as critical for defense?

Even if the Yemen war between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia were to end, smaller wars would likely break out; peace would still be elusive. As the war has stretched on, Yemen has become a deeply fractured state with splintering militia groups and political factions. The Saudi coalition consists of remnants of the Saudi national army, tribal fighters, Islamists, and separatists. These factions are currently united behind a common enemy: the Houthis. But this would no longer be the case following a resolution to the larger conflict.

Yemen itself is still a hotly contested battleground with multiple states and non-state actors vying for control. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) retains a strong presence, as do the political and military supporters of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The international community has since learned not to underestimate the Houthis, who have held their ground for six years. They currently operate a police state within Sanaa that cracks down on political and individual liberties and is heavily subsidized by the Iranian government.

Under Trump, the Houthis were designated a terrorist organization. Some critics saw this as an inflammatory move that would jeopardize the chance for peace talks. The designation also limits the country's capacity to deliver humanitarian aid. As a result, the Biden administration lifted the designation.

Biden has also declared the U.S. will push for a diplomatic resolution in Yemen. He has appointed Timothy Lenderking as his special envoy to work with the UN towards a peace settlement. But how fruitful will negotiations be? Will the Houthis sit down to negotiate? The Houthis remain a formidable force. Some critics raise the concern that the United States’ removed military presence cedes its leverage and will only embolden the Houthis in the region.

What is to be certain about a prolonged war however, is that hundreds of thousands of Yemeni civilians will continue to be caught in the crossfire of this ruthless war. The journey to sustainable peace in Yemen remains long, but the end to U.S. aid to Saudi Arabia is a promising start. If the U.S. keeps its promise, ending arms sales could greatly reduce civilian casualties.