Troop Withdrawals Unlikely Amid Renewed Focus on Iraq and Afghanistan

U.S. troops are set to remain in the region and continue operations countering the Taliban and Iran-backed militias (Flickr)

Despite President Joe Biden’s desire to end so-called “forever wars,” speedy troop withdrawals from Iraq and Afghanistan are in doubt as NATO increases troop numbers in Iraq and violence intensifies in Afghanistan. In the face of increased Taliban attacks, the May 1 troop withdrawal deadline set by the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement appears increasingly unrealistic.

NATO ministers met on February 18 in the wake of deadly rocket attacks in Iraq, which killed a civilian contractor and wounded nine others, including five U.S. service members. In response, Alliance members agreed to increase troops to the NATO mission in Iraq from 500 to 4,000. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the troop increase would remain “condition-based” and was at the request of the Iraqi government. Over the past two years, U.S. troops have steadily left Iraq as the fight against ISIS concluded. However, increasingly frequent rocket attacks by Iran-backed militias continue to worry officials. 

Days after the NATO Defense Ministerial, two more rocket attacks struck near U.S. bases. Initially, the American response was measured, with the State Department saying it would not “lash out.” Then, on February 25, the United States announced that it had conducted retaliatory airstrikes against facilities believed to be used by militias behind the recent attacks. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby called the strike an unambiguous message that “President Biden will act to protect American and Coalition personnel.” According to U.S. officials, the limited nature of the airstrikes was designed to avoid escalation, but it is nonetheless a reminder that Biden’s promise to bring troops home and limit its focus to counterterrorism against Al-Qaeda and ISIS faces complications.

At the same time, the high level of violence in Afghanistan is raising serious questions about whether the United States will adhere to a May 1 deadline to withdraw troops. The deadline is part of the landmark peace agreement the Trump administration signed with the Taliban last year, in which the Taliban promises not to allow Afghanistan to become a safe haven for Al-Qaeda in exchange for the U.S. withdrawal of the remaining 2,500 troops in the country. However, U.S. officials have repeatedly criticized the Taliban for failing to live up to the deal, as Taliban attacks against the Afghan government and civilians remain widespread, even as the Taliban has thus far refrained from targeting U.S. troops. During the Defense Ministerial, NATO allies raised the possibility of missing the deadline, saying that “we will not leave before the time is right.”

President Biden—who argued against a troop surge in Afghanistan during the Obama administration—must now decide whether to adhere to the agreement brokered by the previous administration. With the deadline less than three months away, the Pentagon is reportedly preparing three separate options:  stay, leave, or leave very slowly. The White House has indicated that it has yet to make a decision. 

Congress appears to support staying; the bipartisan Afghanistan Study Group published a report recommending the administration extend the May deadline and tie its policy to how well the Taliban are adhering to the peace deal, warning that a timeline-based withdrawal risks civil war and the collapse of the Afghan government. Jack Reed, the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, backed the report’s findings, saying that he expected “some extension” of U.S. troop presence in the country.