Experts Chart Course for Post-War Ukraine at Georgetown Event
Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Oksana Marakova and IMF Alternate Executive Director Vladyslav Rashkovan gathered at Georgetown to discuss the future of Ukraine.
On November 16, the Georgetown University Ukrainian Society and the European Club hosted “Ukraine of Tomorrow: Global Security, Business and Partnership,” focusing on Ukraine’s future after the end of the war. The event featured two prominent Ukrainian officials in Washington.
The event was moderated by Angela Stent, Professor Emerita of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown and featured Oksana Markarova, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States and former Minister of Finance, along with Vladyslav Rashkovan, an Alternate Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund and former Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine.
Ukrainian students at Georgetown prepared a series of questions for the guests, and the floor was opened to audience questions following panel discussion.
The first questions centered around security guarantees and the security architecture which would have to exist following the war. Both speakers emphasized that the failure of the Budapest Memorandum was a cautionary example that future policymakers should heed.
Ambassador Markarova argued that following Ukrainian victory against Russia, the best security guarantee for Ukraine was eventual NATO membership and closer EU integration. Ambassador Markarova also noted that the world was beginning to view Ukraine outside the context of Soviet-era propaganda. She also noted that Ukraine’s first priority was the restoration of borders recognized by international law, a framework she considers essential for stability.
Director Rashkovan suggested that it was important for the next generation of policy leaders, including Georgetown students, to think about what the security architecture of the world should look like. He argued that security guarantees were essential for post-war reconstruction and investor confidence.
Later questions focused on Ukrainian economic recovery after the war, including agricultural issues and the effects of Russian occupation and infrastructure attacks on the Ukrainian economy. The speakers were also asked how Ukraine could become an Eastern-European “tiger” economy.
Ambassador Markarova noted that Russian infrastructure strikes, particularly against power facilities, created a difficult situation for Ukraine and that they were the first priority for reconstruction. She observed that Ukraine was an agricultural hub of Europe and that after the war, production ideally would far exceed pre-war levels and help mitigate the global food crisis.
Ambassador Markarova also argued that Ukraine would have to “win the war and win the peace” through refugee resettlement and encouraging foreign investment. She emphasized the importance of a level playing field and lack of corruption for attracting these investors, and that the decentralization of Ukrainian tax revenue to regions encouraged governors to embrace economic growth.
Both speakers agreed that free economic zones would be more harmful than helpful to recovery, and that recovery should be nation-wide and not just in certain targeted regions, reflecting the nation-wide nature of the war.
Director Rashkovan argued that we were in an era of de-globalization, and that just-in-time production was increasingly becoming a thing of the past, being replaced by just-in-case production. Rashkovan attributed this in part to Chinese zero-COVID policies and in part to broader political and economic trends. He noted that Ukraine could potentially gain from American “friendshoring” policies as the United States seeks to avoid economic engagement with China and Russia.
He argued that Russia’s most significant economic effect on Ukraine was pre-war cheap gas, which made economic transformation difficult and simultaneously empowered pro-Russia oligarchs. After the war, he argued that Ukraine could transition towards green energy and industry, while also strengthening the digital sector of the economy, which had experienced rapid pre-war growth.