What the War in Ukraine means for Taiwan

The Russo-Ukrainian War has intensified fears of a Chinese invasion of Taipei (Green Left).

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 prompted an uproar in Taiwan where blue and yellow, the colors of the Ukrainian flag, could be seen throughout the capital of Taipei and plastered on thousands of signs protesting Russia’s aggression against its neighbor. 

Russia’s ruthless invasion of Ukraine has renewed fears among the Taiwanese and the international community of a similar war of aggression that may be instigated by its own neighbor, China. The parallels between the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the China-Taiwan relationship are striking. In both cases, a larger, militarily superior country has questioned the legitimacy and sovereignty of its smaller neighbor and has squarely put armed conflict on the table as a way to achieve its objectives of absorbing its neighbor. According to Vladimir Putin, Ukraine has no historical claim to independence and was “entirely created by Russia.” Similarly, Xi Jinping refers to Taiwan as an “inalienable” part of China’s historic territory (CNN).

For many Taiwanese people and countless onlookers, the similarities between the rhetoric and ambitions of these autocrats are glaring, particularly after the recent Russian-Chinese joint announcement of their new strategic relationship– one both parties say has “no limits.” For Taiwan, the question now seems to be: what lessons can be learned from the current Russian-Ukrainian war in planning its course ahead with China?

Ukraine declared itself an independent country in 1991 following the collapse of the USSR. Since its independence, the nation has attempted to forge closer alliances with the European Union and NATO. President Vladimir Putin regards Ukraine’s westward drift as a national security threat, particularly because he believes that Ukraine is historically part of Russia. Putin also seems intent on restoring Russia’s border to its geographic footprint from before the breakup of the old Soviet Union, a breakup that he described in 2005 as “the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century.” Beyond restoring the Soviet Union’s former borders, Putin has broader geopolitical ambitions in mind, ambitions that China shares as well. “China and Russia share two primary strategic interests,” explains Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute of the University of London; “One is to take the American global leadership down a notch or two. The second is to make the world safe for authoritarianism.” 

Commentators have noted that the Chinese are unlikely to use military force against Taiwan, instead preferring to gradually apply pressure to achieve its goals. A hot war with Taiwan could result in economic sanctions and impair China’s trading relationship with the United States and Western Europe. However, it is irresponsible to dismiss the possibility that, like the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a war of words might be backed up by military aggression. China might estimate that the United States cannot rally Western European allies to impose China sanctions due to Taiwan’s lesser geostrategic value. Moreover, Chinese leaders might hope to exploit America’s trade reliance on China, which far exceeds its reliance on Russia. 

Other factors discourage China from pursuing a war of aggression against Taiwan. For example, whereas Russia and Ukraine share a 1,300-mile land border, Taiwan rests 110 miles away from China, separated by sea. Additionally, Taiwan is a vital part of the global supply chain, and the United States is committed to defending Taiwan as per the Taiwan Relations Act. By contrast, although NATO is now providing armaments to Ukraine, the organization’s security guarantee does not directly protect or extend to Ukraine. One cannot simply take a mirror to the situation in Ukraine and expect a direct reflection with Taiwan. Still, Taiwanese citizens and officials are rightfully extracting important lessons from the Russia-Ukraine relationship. 

For a long time, the China-Taiwan relationship rested on the assumption that Beijing would not “risk entangling itself in all-out-war to take over the island.” Thanks to Russia’s presence in Ukraine, though, Taiwan’s military is now on high alert. Perhaps Taiwan’s biggest takeaway from Ukraine is the importance of self-sufficiency. It knows it cannot rely on Washington in the event of an attack from across the Strait.

 A public opinion survey released on March 15 by the International Strategic Study Society in Taiwan reports that an increasing number of citizens are in favor of expanding mandatory military service and improving the reservist training program. Nearly 70% of people expressed their support for an extension of military service from four to twelve months. In December 2021, 40.3% of those surveyed said they would go to war for Taiwan. That number has now nearly doubled, with 80.2% pledging their lives if Beijing were to attack. The government in Taipei recently announced its donation of 27 tons of medical supplies to Ukraine as a sign of solidarity with Kyiv. Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen immediately condemned Russia’s actions and announced economic sanctions against Russia. 

Many Taiwanese do not believe that “Ukraine today” will become “Taiwan tomorrow,” but Taiwan empathizes with Ukraine’s suffering. Equally, Taipei takes Russia’s aggression as a warning sign; for better or for worse, Taiwan is refocusing its efforts on preventative military operations in preparation for a potential war.