Mohamed Muizzu wins Maldives Presidential Runoff, expected to shift country's foreign policy gaze toward China
Mohammed Muizzu (left) defeated his opponent President Mohamed Solih (right) in a runoff election on September 30 (The President’s Office: Republic of Maldives).
Mohammed Muizzu defeated the incumbent president of the Maldives, Mohamed Solih, in a closely watched runoff election on September 30, 2023. Muizzu’s victory signaled a shift in public sentiment toward China, which had signaled its support for the challenger over the India-aligned Solih.
Muizzu, the 45-year-old mayor of Maldives’ capital city, Malé, collected nearly 54 percent of the vote. Turnout was high, with 85 percent of eligible voters casting their ballots across the island nation.
From 2013 to 2018, the Maldives was led by Abdulla Yameen, who brought the nation closer to China by welcoming $63 million in investments through the Belt and Road Initiative. The Belt and Road Initiative is the Chinese government's policy of funding infrastructure investments throughout the Indo-Pacific to expand its trade network and influence.
After Solih ousted Yameen in 2018 and brought his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) to power, he embraced India as the nation’s financial benefactor, accepting $1.4 billion in budgetary support and a $100 million line of credit to fund the Greater Malé Connectivity Project, a bridge linking the capital to three other islands.
Yameen attempted a comeback bid this year, but in August 2023, the Maldivian Supreme Court ruled that his December 2022 conviction and 11-year sentence for money laundering and corruption made his potential candidacy ineligible. Yameen’s party, the People’s National Congress (PNC), nominated Muizzu as their candidate with only three weeks until voting began.
In the first round of elections, Muizzu defied expectations, leading with 46 percent of the vote to Solih’s 39 percent. Former President Mohammed Nasheed, who had split from Solih’s MDP ahead of the election, won seven percent.
Shrugging off the role of kingmaker, Nasheed declined to endorse Solih, whom he had targeted on the campaign trail, or Muizzu. He claimed, “there's not enough time, and even with my support, President Solih cannot win.”
While housing affordability and tourism industry growth were top issues, the vote’s implications on Maldives’ foreign policy piqued the interest of foreign observers. However, even with Muizzu promising a shift toward China in foreign policy, India will likely continue to exercise considerable influence in the island nation. The former MDP Foreign Minister Ahmed Shaheed predicted that the Maldives would not “see a drastic change in the orientation of foreign policy, even if there is a government change: India will likely remain a very strong partner.”
Nevertheless, the realignment of the nation’s foreign policy outlook toward China marks a departure from the Maldives’ pro-India tilt and represents a soft power victory for the Belt and Road Initiative.