Ukrainian Special Forces Seize the Initiative
Recent intelligence has tied Ukrainian military actors to last year’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline bombing, a finding that comes amid a recent ramp up in Ukrainian military activities (RawPixel).
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) took credit for an October 29 drone attack on oil facilities near Krasnodar, Russia, which provide jet fuel for Russian military aircraft, reports the Kyiv Post. Ukrainian special forces have been increasing their activities with more aggressive tactics since September, indicating the country’s willingness to open new fronts and bring the war elsewhere. The SBU is at the head of these new operations. Per The Washington Post, their activities include the use of drones, assassinations, and targeted strikes all over the battlefield.
Recent insight has revealed that many SBU agents have received high-level training from the CIA since the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014. Until recently, these connections have been classified. With new avenues opened, the SBU has been able to hit targets previously unavailable to them. For instance, with CIA assistance, the security service has launched drone strikes deep within Russian territory, at one point even hitting the Kremlin roof, reports The New York Times.
The use of drones has become one of the SBU’s preferred tactics. Along with the Krasnodar attack, the SBU has used drones to attack a Wagner-backed militia in Sudan, widening the battlefield to new fronts previously untouched by the war.
Some of the SBU’s new tactics have drawn criticism from allies. They have conducted dozens of assassinations, which the CIA has claimed no part in. Collateral damage has occasionally strained relations with Washington.
Intelligence also suggests Ukraine was linked to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline bombing, which some U.S. officials fear could alienate European allies. The SBU was also responsible for the bombing of the Crimean bridge. It justifies its tactics as necessary in the face of Russian aggression, although they did not take credit for the pipeline attack.
Vladimir Putin has weaponized these aggressive tactics to accuse Ukraine of supporting terrorism. In May, after Ukraine struck the Kremlin roof, Putin called it “a clear sign of terrorist activities,” as seen in a video shared by Bloomberg News.
These operations have bolstered the Ukrainian war effort. However, foreign support from Western allies is also essential to Ukraine continuing its fight against Russia. If SBU operations continue their aggressive strategies, it is possible Ukraine may alienate their allies over time. It puts them in the difficult position of balancing conducting a war and keeping lines of foreign support open.