Tensions in Korean Peninsula Escalate Amid North Korean Missile Tests and U.S. Military Exercises

North Korea tests its Hwasong-15 missile in 2017 (Source: KCNA via CSIS Missile Defense Project)

North Korea conducted its first round of a series of missile tests, launching its Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Sea of Japan under the orders of Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un on Saturday, February 18. The announcement came in conjunction with a statement by Kim Yo Jong, the dictator’s sister and a high-level government official, threatening “very powerful and overwhelming countermeasures” to U.S. and South Korean deterrence efforts on the Korean Peninsula. According to Japan’s Defense Ministry, the missile landed within Japan’s exclusive economic zone, posing a clear threat of military escalation.

After the missile test, the U.S. and South Korean Air Forces conducted a joint air exercise on February 19, sending B-1B strategic bombers over the Yellow Sea and to the west of the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea responded with “a power demonstration fire” of multiple launch rocket system subunits into the Sea of Japan, which demonstrated the possibility of a tactical nuclear offensive. Following a joint table-top exercise and a trilateral ballistic missile defense drill among the United States, South Korea, and Japan, North Korea continued its hostile actions by successfully launching four Hwasal-2 cruise missiles at virtual targets in the Sea of Japan.

Tensions in the Korean Peninsula have continued to escalate due to North Korean protests against “Freedom Shield,” a 10-day U.S.-South Korean joint military exercise scheduled to begin March 15. In a statement to state media, Kim Yo Jong threatened that further military presence in the region would compel North Korea to use “the Pacific as [its] firing range.”

Unlike past joint military exercises, “Freedom Shield” will be larger in size, incorporating landing exercises, occupation, and pre-emptive nuclear strike drills. As a result, North Korea views the exercises as a threat to its security. North Korean media highlighted fears of “invasion and pre-emptive attack” based on the type of drills scheduled.

Meanwhile, North Korea’s reaction underscores the intensifying threat posed by the regime’s massive military arsenal. If estimates of the Hwasong-15’s range are correct, the ICBM is capable of reaching any region of the United States. The short-range ballistic missile launched on February 20 and cruise missile launched on February 24 also display North Korea’s tactical nuclear capabilities, which threaten both South Korea and Japan in the case of conflict.

The escalating security environment comes amid uncertainty over North Korea’s future and its leader’s health. In 2020, Kim Jong Un delegated some authority to his aides, sparking rumors that he was comatose. Then, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the dictator fell “seriously ill” due to the virus. His recent public appearances alongside his 10 or 11-year-old daughter Kim Ju Ae have roused speculations that Kim Jong Un is preparing to step down and appoint her as his successor.