Democracy at a Crossroads: Examining Nigeria's 2023 Presidential Elections

President-elect Bola Tinubu gives a speech at Chatham House (Wikimedia Commons)

Bola Tinubu, the 70-year-old former governor of Lagos, emerged victorious on March 1, 2023 in Nigeria's most fiercely contested election since the country's transition to democracy in 1999. The election was held on Feb. 25, with three formidable candidates vying for the presidency: Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi of the Labour Party.

Numerous voting irregularities, including widespread violence throughout the country, have marred the recent election cycle. Nevertheless, this election was of monumental significance for several reasons. For the first time, a third-party candidate emerged as a legitimate opposition to the APC and the PDP, the two main ruling parties. Additionally, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) introduced its new Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to ensure voter accreditation on election day, helping prevent voter fraud.

MEET THE CANDIDATES

While campaigning, Tinubu focused on his achievements during his term as governor of Lagos between 1999 and 2007. Tinubu oversaw substantial increases in foreign investment and ambitious public transport initiatives while in office. Today, however, Lagos faces crumbling public infrastructure, lack of water, and unstable electricity—synecdoches for the myriad problems the nation faces. Tinubu also chose Borno state governor Kashim Shettima, a northern Muslim, to ensure the Muslim vote, breaking the convention of the mixed-faith ticket in Nigerian elections. His opponents have accused of using the firm Alpha-beta for suspicious money-laundering schemes. Nigerians have also been worried about his age—they remember President Umaru Yar’Adua’s death in office in 2010 and the largely absent President Buhari, who frequently received medical treatment outside of the country.

Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), ran as the main opposition candidate in the election. He positioned himself as the candidate who would continue the legacy of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, under whom he served as vice president from 1999 to 2007. Obasanjo oversaw significant economic growth and liberalization during his tenure, which Atiku sought to replicate. Despite his efforts, this was Atiku's sixth unsuccessful attempt at winning the presidency.

Peter Obi of the Labour Party emerged as a surprise candidate in the election. Obi’s supporters, the “Obidients,” are primarily young Nigerians who have grown frustrated with the country’s political elites, who they view as incompetent and corrupt.

DAYS LEADING UP TO THE ELECTION

Many disruptions occurred in the days leading up to the election. In Dec. 2022 alone, paramilitary groups attacked INEC offices in Imo and Enugu , leaving five dead.  Most of these violent incidents occurred in the South, where secessionist movements have been gaining momentum. The broader African continent has also witnessed a worrying trend of democratic backsliding, with governments using Covid-19 as an excuse to postpone elections indefinitely. Recent coup attempts in politically stable countries like Mali and Burkina Faso have added to growing apprehension about the future of democracy in Africa. 

With its 221 million residents and 87 million registered voters, Nigeria holds a pivotal position for democracy on the continent. As Stanley Achonu, Nigeria country director for ONE.org, states,“Nigeria stands to become a beacon for Africa but also stands the risk of bringing darkness to the continent because whatever happens will have great repercussions across the continent and also the impact will be felt around the world.” 

ELECTION DAY

The air was tense on the day of the election. The assassination of Labour Party candidate Oyibo Chukwu just two days before election day created fears that the INEC might suspend elections. Polls that were supposed to open at 8 a.m. were delayed, leaving anxious voters waiting to vote.

Throughout the day, criminal gangs attacked polling stations, voting machines malfunctioned, and militant Islamists opened fire in Borno state. Widespread violence in addition to continued delayed openings created a disorienting election landscape. By the end of the day, frustrated students slept outside the polls, desperate to cast their ballots—many of them for the first time.

TINUBU’S VICTORY

After multiple delays, the INEC declared Tinubu the victor with 37 percent of the vote. Abubakar and Obi, who received 29 percent and 25 percent respectively, claimed voter fraud and election-rigging. There were indeed reports of election rigging in places such as Lagos, Sokoto, and Delta. Furthermore, the logistical mishaps and threat of violence likely led to many voters going home.  Despite noting certain irregularities, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) urged candidates to accept the election results. Obi and Abubakar are heading to the Supreme Court to challenge the election results, which will take at least eight months to reach a final decision. The Court’s decision will not arrive before Tinubu’s inauguration on May 29.

THE FUTURE OF NIGERIAN DEMOCRACY

Tinubu delivered his acceptance speech in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital city, on March 1. His message was clear: unity amid rising tensions and division. “Today, Nigeria stands tall as the giant of Africa,” Tinubu said. “It shines even brighter as the continent’s biggest democracy.”   

Nigeria faces daunting obstacles, including the Boko Haram insurgency, secessionist sentiment in the Southeast, mass unemployment, and unprecedented inflation rates of over 21.5 percent. But as the largest economy and most populous country in Africa, the fact that Nigeria has successfully pulled off another election – despite widespread violence, the looming shadow of a pandemic, and logistical problems on the day of the election – demonstrates Africa’s commitment to democracy.

The world will watch with cautious optimism as Nigeria undergoes another transition of power. Nigeria has struggled with military coups after contested election results, most notably the election of MKO Abiola of the SDP in 1993, whose experience shares eerie parallels with Tinubu. Both ran on a Muslim-Muslim ticket. Abiola’s campaign slogan was “HOPE’93” – Tinubu’s, “RENEWED HOPE’2023.” After Abiola’s victory, General Ibrahim Babangida staged a military coup and annulled the results. Today, however, the opposition candidates will air their grievances through a peaceful and fair judicial investigation. 

Tinubu’s supporters hail him as ‘Jagaban,’ a title that means “leader of warriors.” From the brutal civil war in the 60s to the democratization struggles in the 90s and the recent youth-led #EndSARS protests, Nigerians have been battle-tested in their pursuit of a better future. Whether Tinubu can live up to his title and be a true leader to a nation of warriors remains to be seen.