Tensions Heighten Between Russia and Moldov

Maia Sandiu, President of Moldova, faces challenges from the Russian government and pro-Russian political forces (Flickr).

Tensions between Moldova and Russia have risen after Moldovan officials accused Russia of staging a coup to destabilize their government, sparking fears of the Russia-Ukraine war extending to Moldova. 

Earlier in February, President Zelensky warned that Ukrainian intelligence intercepted a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) document titled “Strategic objectives of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Moldova.” This secret plan outlines a 10-year strategy to destabilize Moldova, place pro-Russian groups in power, and force the former Soviet Republic back into Russia’s sphere of influence, according to CNN. 

This alleged coup plot has come during a period of several ongoing crises in Moldova. On February 10, Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita resigned amidst a major energy crisis, soaring gas prices, and rampant inflation. The new administration, led by Prime Minister Dorin Recean, is looking to strengthen ties with Western allies and have continued to call for European Union membership. 

Moldovan President Maia Sandu believes Russia is taking advantage of Moldova during its time of economic and political turmoil to prevent the West from gaining another ally close to Russia. She also accused Russia of using disguised civilians to incite protests and generate political instability. According to the BBC, Sandu warned about unprecedented security challenges and that “some wanted our country to fall and to install in Chisinau a puppet government enslaved to the interests of the Kremlin.” 

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied any knowledge of the alleged coup plot. “We know nothing of the existence of such a plan. I do not rule out that this is another fake. Russia has always been and remains open to building good-neighborly, mutually beneficial relations, including with Moldova,” said Peskov. 

This seemingly contradicts Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision on February 22 to revoke a 2012 decree that pledged respect for Moldova’s sovereignty and resolved the 1992 conflict over Transnistria, a region near the Ukraine border. Currently, Transnistria is an unrecognized breakaway state occupied by Russian troops as part of a “peacekeeping force” in support of pro-Russia separatists. 

Instead, Putin accused Ukraine of planning an invasion of Transnistria, heightening fears that the war could spread into this region. Moldova has already been affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with missiles frequently crossing their airspace and explosions in Transnistria last April. However, according to CNN, Moldovan officials are more concerned with further escalation, and the head of Moldova’s Security Service believes that Russia will invade from Moldova’s east later in 2023. 

Going forward in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Moldova and Transnistria will be crucial regions to follow. Moldova is in a precarious position between East and West, and Russia’s investment in destabilizing the Moldovan government could be a sign of escalation. On a broader level, these rising tensions reveal Russia’s long-term plan to push back against the EU and NATO and re-assert its control in Eastern Europe.