Spanish Investiture Clash Set For Sep 27

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez faces an uphill climb to remain in his post (European Parliament on Flickr).

The uncertainty that followed Spain’s July general election could soon be resolved with an upcoming investiture vote. King Felipe VI’s nominee, Alberto Nunez Feijoo, leader of the center right Partido Popular (PP), is set to seek parliamentary backing for his appointment, or investiture, as Prime Minister on September 27, 2023.

After a four-year term as prime minister and disappointing local elections this spring, Pedro Sanchez, the leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), called a snap national election for July 23. His party, in an alliance with the left-wing Sumar grouping, faced off against the Feijoo-led conservatives, who had agreed to form alliances with VOX after the local elections.

If VOX, a vocally anti-immigrant and nationalist party, is elected to the Spanish government, it would be the most far-right administration in office since Francisco Franco’s dictatorship in 1975. 

While pre-election polling had indicated a clear lead for Feijoo and his coalition partners, July’s elections resulted in a hung parliament, with VOX losing seats, no coalition holding a majority of seats, and a collection of minor regionalist parties–including the Catalan nationalist party Junts–holding the balance of power. 

With 176 seats needed for a majority, PP and VOX currently hold 169 seats, while the PSOE and Sumar won a combined 153. Feijoo will attempt to form a government first. To become Prime Minister, he must achieve an absolute majority in the first vote, or win more yes votes than no votes during the second. Should he fail to win either vote, a two-month countdown would begin where any candidate could seek a majority until new elections are called.

Acting Prime Minister Sanchez, not ready to leave his office without a fight, is leading his party’s negotiations. Earlier this month, a PSOE member was elected speaker of the Congress of Deputies, cobbling together a coalition of the PSOE, Sumar, and smaller separatist parties like Junts. Sanchez has supported regional nationalism and is better positioned to win the support of Basque and Catalan parties than Feijoo. PSOE spokeswoman Pilar Alegria confidently asserted that "when [Feijoo] fails and we know he will, we'll work, propose and win the investiture."

However, Junts will drive a hard bargain for their support, calling for amnesty for Catalan nationalists involved with a failed 2017 independence attempt. Critics argue amnesty could destabilize Spain and challenge the rule of law. For instance, newspaper editor Juan Luis Cebrian claimed that "if the government and the PSOE consummate this disloyalty to the constitution, this [September] could mark the beginning of the end of our democracy.”

With these stakes, international observers will be watching the progress in Spain with great interest. An alliance between Sanchez and separatist parties could fundamentally shake Spanish national unity, while a government led by Feijoo could reduce spending on welfare programs and roll back new protections for transgender Spaniards. 

The opening salvo next week could be only the first attempt at resolving a complicated political situation. Should Feijoo fail to win either of the investiture votes or Sanchez’s negotiations with regional nationalists falter, the deadlock could bring Spaniards back to the polls by the end of the year.