U.S. Strike on the Houthis Unlikely to Stop Red Sea Attacks

Ship attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea (Stimson).

The United States conducted a military strike on over a dozen Houthi targets on October 4, 2024. Although reports indicate that the United States successfully hit 15 Houthi targets with “offensive military capabilities,” the Yemeni rebel group still maintains significant military strength, albeit with a decreased capability to attack Western shipping in the Red Sea. The United State’s strike was a response to the Houthis’ continuous attacks on ships in the Red Sea and surrounding bodies of water, which have disrupted trade and increased the cost of shipping as companies are forced to reroute their ships along costlier but safer shipping lanes. 

The Houthis, a Yemeni militant and political organization backed by Iran, started their attacks in the Red Sea in support of Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel. The Houthis first hijacked The Galaxy Leader, a vehicle carrier linked to Israel, on November 19, 2023, and have carried out over 130 attacks in the Red Sea since. Although the group has mainly focused its attacks on commercial shipping vessels, the Houthis have also attacked some U.S. and Israeli military ships.

The Houthi attacks have significantly impacted trading in the Red Sea, which is a vital trade passageway connecting the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal. The seven-day moving average of ships traveling through the Suez Canal has dropped to 28 ships as of October 8, compared to 76 ships a year prior, an over 63 percent decrease in shipping. Although Houthi attacks rarely destroy or seriously harm ships, they have been able to deter international carriers from traveling through the Suez Canal. The carriers instead opt to travel around the southern tip of Africa, which lets them escape Houthi attacks, but also increases shipping costs. Additionally, these adaptations also harm the environment due to the increased amount of fossil fuel emissions as a result of the additional 10-15 days required to bypass the Suez Canal. 

Jayanta Kumar Seal, a professor of accounting and finance at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, believes it is unlikely the Houthis will halt their attacks unless other Middle Eastern conflicts are first resolved. As Israel’s war continues to drastically impact the region,, even with U.S. strikes on the Houthis, it is unlikely that Red Sea shipping levels will return to normal anytime soon.