The Match: Japan Set for New Prime Minister in Crowded Leadership Race

The Residence of the Prime Minister of Japan in Tokyo will house a new Prime Minister in October to succeed the incumbent Fumio Kishida (Wikimedia Commons).

Candidates have campaigned across Japan as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, dubbed "The Match" by the party's marketing department, approaches on September 27. The LDP currently holds the majority in the National Diet—the Japanese Parliament—as it almost continuously has in the nearly 80 years since Japan promulgated its postwar constitution. The winner of the party election is therefore highly likely to become the prime minister. 

This particular leadership election comes in the wake of a wide-reaching political scandal earlier in the year that led to the disbandment of most of the LDP’s intra-party factions, formerly led by high-profile lawmakers such as the late Shinzo Abe. The faction system has been crucial in organizing candidacies in previous elections. The dismantling of this system, which coincided with the withdrawal of incumbent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida from his reelection campaign, has removed most restrictions preventing LDP lawmakers from entering the race.

The three top contenders to succeed Kishida are: Shigeru Ishiba, former secretary-general and perennial candidate entering his fifth and final leadership election; Sanae Takaichi, economic security minister and staunch Abe loyalist; and former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. Ishiba has advocated for an Asian equivalent to NATO in the face of increased tensions with China, North Korea, and Russia. Takaichi, considered the most conservative candidate in the race, opposes same-sex marriage, and supports slower rate-hiking from the Bank of Japan. Koizumi, the youngest candidate in the race at 43 years old, supports same-sex marriage, and continuing to pull the Japanese economy away from deflation. All three support amending Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, which currently prevents Japan from maintaining an official military.

According to recent poll data, Takaichi currently holds the lead with 27.7 percent of rank-and-file LDP voters’ support, followed by Ishiba’s 23.7 percent and Koizumi’s 19.1 percent. However, in terms of support from lawmakers within the Diet, Koizumi leads with 45 endorsements, while Takaichi and Ishiba trail at 29 and 26 endorsements respectively.

Other notable candidates include Digital Minister Taro Kono (a Georgetown SFS graduate), Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and party secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi. 

Even without factions, three veteran lawmakers are still projected to significantly influence the results. LDP Vice President Taro Aso, the sole remaining faction leader, officially endorsed faction-member Kono, but has not prevented members of his faction from endorsing other candidates. Kishida’s predecessor, Yoshihide Suga, has endorsed Koizumi; both lawmakers hail from Kanagawa Prefecture. Prime Minister Kishida has chosen not to endorse any candidate, although two members of his former faction—Hayashi and Kamikawa—are in the running. 

LDP and Constitutional Democratic Party officials have proposed October 1 as the official inauguration date of the new Prime Minister. With nine total candidates, this election sets a new record as the most crowded race since the current election rules were implemented. With the faction system an artifact of the past, this race has the potential to not only begin a new era of leadership for Japan, but also set a precedent for the country’s politics and elections in the years to come.