Return to Autocracy: The end of the Arab Spring in Tunisia
Voters cast their ballots in the October 6 presidential election in Tunisia (Flickr)
Tunisian President Kais Saied won another term of office on October 6. However, the continued arrests of political opposition and breakdown of checks and balances has a panel of global experts speaking at Georgetown University convinced that Tunisia has reverted to autocracy.
Saied won 91 percent of the votes, but only 22 percent of registered voters even turned up. Turnout was especially low among young populations. Hamza Meddeb, a research fellow of Carnegie Endowment for Peace, warned that low voter turnout rates reflect decaying support for Saied’s regime: “The people are running out of patience. Dissension is growing. Social anger is growing.”
Tunisia was one of the first countries to feel the impact of the Arab Spring. When the popular will overthrew its dictator, Ben Ali, in 2011, the international community lauded Tunisia as a beacon of democracy in the region. However, since then, Tunisia has been the victim of significant democratic backsliding as Saied removed checks and balances to consolidate power. In 2021, he changed the Constitution, fired the Prime Minister, and blocked opposition leaders from entering Parliament.
Doubts shadow the election results. Although 17 candidates applied to run in the election, the Independent High Authority for Elections of Tunisia (ISIE) declared 14 of them ineligible. ISIE then ignored a ruling by Tunisia’s Administrative Court in favor of some of the denied candidates; the General Assembly subsequently stripped the Administrative Court of any power, hobbling the last independent judicial institution in Tunisia. Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of DAWN, lamented, “The judiciary is yet again a cudgel with which to beat opponents.” Afterwards, Tunisia’s government limited the chances for the two non-incumbent approved candidates—Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Magzhaoui—to win. The government arrested Zammel five days before the election for alleged falsification of election applications, preventing his campaign. Magzhaoui, while recently critical of Saied, has been his long-time supporter.
In addition to politicians, Tunisia’s government has been cracking down on free speech and press in an effort to quell political opposition. Accusing opponents of breaking Decree 54 and spreading fake news, the government has arrested over 210 politicians, journalists, lawyers, and human rights activists that speak up against Saied. The government even arrested Rachel Ghannouchi, one of the leaders of the Arab Spring. Prior to his arrest, Ghannouchi had said, “We are moving toward escalating pressure on the president, of course peacefully … to demand the return to a democratic system and respecting the will of the Tunisian people.”
Although the UN criticized the extrajudicial arrests, the international community has remained mostly silent on Tunisia’s escalating rights violations. Whitson suggested that it was chiefly international silence that enabled Saied’s dictatorship; she said that the U.S. and EU needed to cut aid immediately after events in 2021. She explained that Saied continued to receive international support by leveraging the worsening migrant crisis in Europe. According to Whitson, Tunisia remains the highest per capita recipient of EU aid in spite of their autocratic policies. Now she says it’s “too late” for the international community to reverse course.
Popular protests have started afresh, with over 3500 people taking to the streets ahead of Election Day. According to Secretary General of Amnesty International Agnes Callamard, youth are leading this movement. However, she doubts that protests will change Saied’s policies: “There is no real sense of people coming together yet. […] The political, intellectual, and activist classes are divided. […] Many people still fear the Islamists.” Despite divisions, Meddeb claimed that opposition leaders mobilize voters, and Zammel received seven percent of the vote.
The path forward remains unclear. Both Meddeb and Tunisian politician Kamel Jendoubi pointed out Saied’s reliance on the military, suggesting reforms to the army would lessen human rights violations and eventually create room for rebuilding democratic institutions. Winston, however, had a much more pessimistic view. She said, “Tunisians allowed this to happen […] and chose to look away from the erosions of their freedoms in hopes for a savior […] Now, no one is safe in Tunisia.”