Finland and Sweden Sound the Alarm
Countries near the Baltic Sea see increasing tensions as Russian operations in the area increase (Wikipedia Commons)
Concerns over the threat of a Russian attack are rising in Sweden. In a recent interview, the Defense Minister of Sweden Pål Johnson discussed the danger that Russia poses both to Sweden and NATO, declaring that Sweden “cannot rule out a Russian attack”.
This position is not new for Sweden. In 2023, the government increased the defense budget by 28% and is set to do so again in 2025, raising defense spending by $1.3 billion. The Defense Minister predicts this trend will continue over the coming years. Based on the current increases, military spending should be 2.8 percent of the GDP in 2028, an increase of 0.4 percent from 2.4 percent in 2024. These recent hikes in military spending represent a rapid change in Sweden’s defense policy since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Maintaining a policy of neutrality and non-alignment for the past 200 years, Sweden has not participated in any war since 1814. However, they applied for membership of NATO in 2022, joining earlier this year and breaking their policy of nonalignment. But Sweden is not alone in its recent interest in becoming a member of NATO. Finland, who had maintained military neutrality since the Cold War, applied for NATO membership in 2022 and officially became a member in 2023. The addition of these countries increased NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea.
Escalating tensions in the Baltic Sea and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 serve as the two main catalysts for both countries’ change in policy. Off the coast of the island of Gotland, whose location in the Baltic Sea makes it a strategic asset, Russian shadow tankers have entered Sweden’s exclusive economic zone, a 230 mile section of ocean that extends beyond Sweden’s territorial waters. Sweden has complete control over the natural resources in this area. Unlike territorial waters, exclusive economic zones are not a part of a country. Thus, Sweden does not have sovereignty over any other activities in this area. By carefully avoiding Sweden’s territorial water, the tankers prevent Sweden from taking any actions against them while still encroaching into Sweden’s sphere of influence. However, it is still considered to be an escalation. In addition to activity in the Baltic, Sweden has reported Russian interference with its satellite system, which conveniently took place only days after Sweden officially joined NATO. Ulk Kristersson, the Prime Minister of Sweden, has referred to “these disruptions … as part of wider Russian hybrid actions aimed at Sweden.”
Finland, who shares a 1,343 kilometer long border with Russia, also reports Russian interference. The border also has a 3 mile buffer zone. In 2015, Russia arranged the arrival of third-country nationals to the Finnish border, weaponizing the refugee crisis in Europe and Finland’s recent influx of thousands of refugees at the time. This action greatly harmed Finnish-Russian relations, resulting in increased Finnish intelligence efforts against Russia. Russia repeated this effort in 2023, resulting in Finland closing its borders with Russia. More recently, there have been a series of thefts of technical equipment at water treatment plants in Finland. While Finnish authorities have not found the culprit, Tomi Vuori, Director General of the Police Department of the Ministry of the Interior, says they are suspicious that a state actor is connected to the incidents. The thefts are thought to have expanded to Sweden, where an intruder was able to access some of a reservoir and pumping station.
The Finnish Minister of the Interior Lulu Ranne assertsthat Russia is most likely behind these recent incidents. If Russia continues its actions within the Baltic Sea by provoking Finland and Sweden from the shadows, already high tensions in the region will only increase. It remains unclear whether NATO will become involved before these tensions reach a boiling point. Nevertheless, both Finland and Sweden appear to be preparing for an escalation.