The History Behind Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Plant Referendum

The Semipalatinsk nuclear test site is a highly radioactive reminder of Kazakhstan’s nuclear past. (The Official CTBTO Photostream)

On October 6, Kazakhstan will hold a referendum on the construction of its first nuclear power plant since they shut down the last Soviet plant in 1999. The proposed nuclear plant in Ulken would help alleviate Kazakhstan’s power shortage, which currently stands at 2.4 billion kWh and is projected to increase to 13.5 billion kWh by 2030. As part of its effort to combat this deficit, the Kazakh government has pledged to source 5 percent of their electricity from nuclear power by 2035. As Kazakhstan produces 42 percent of the world’s uranium, acquiring the fuel for the proposed plants would be relatively feasible.

Despite the proposal’s positive polling numbers, it might be more unpopular than government polling suggests. The people of Kazakhstan have historically opposed nuclear weapons and power plants, a trend stemming from the national trauma of the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site that poisoned local citizens and the environment due to Soviet nuclear tests from 1949 to 1989.  Kazakhs protested this testing en masse and eventually ended nuclear testing in the country. As a result of the historical trauma from Soviet nuclear tests, Kazakhstan is one of the few states to have voluntarily given up its nuclear weapons, which they were left with during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. In addition to nuclear power’s dark legacy in Kazakhstan, opponents of the Ulken plant have cited Central Asia’s frequent earthquakes, which would increase the odds of a meltdown and the contamination of neighboring Lake Balkhash, a significant body of water in the country’s southeast that would serve as the plant’s cooling source. The government cracked down on anti-nuclear demonstrations, arresting anti-nuclear activists and preventing environmentalists from speaking at town hall meetings and events designed to boost support for the plant. However, that is not to say that some Kazakhs do not support the plan. A sizable portion of the Kazakh population, including many Ulken locals, have expressed support for the plant in the hopes that it will solve the electricity shortage and create new jobs.

Should the referendum pass, Russian state nuclear company Rostam will likely construct the Ulken plant, though state companies from France, China, and South Korea are also competing for the contract. Once construction is completed, the plant would require technical support from Russia, further tying the two countries together. Russia has made similar nuclear plant deals with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, despite the poor safety record of Russian nuclear plants.

Though the referendum has not yet occurred at the time of this article’s publishing, the result will likely see the Ulken plant approved due to the undemocratic nature of Kazakhstan’s politics and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s support for the plans. Preliminary polling conducted by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan suggests that 53.1 percent of the population supports the construction of the plant, while only 32.5 percent opposes it. Because the polling organization is run by the Kazakh government, this information must be taken with a grain of salt, yet it likely forecasts how the vote will go. The first nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan would be a momentous step for the nation, marking the end of its opposition to the use of nuclear energy and a new economic link to Russia.

Update: The referendum passed with 71.12% of the vote, with 64% voter turnout.