The German Coalition Government Collapses

Olaf Scholz’s position as chancellor remains uncertain (Flickr).

Germany will hold a no-confidence vote for the current minority-led government on December 16 and new elections on February 23 after the German coalition government composed of the Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats collapsed last week, according to the BBC, sending the normally stable country into political turmoil. Weeks of infighting between the Free Democrats, a junior coalition member, and Social Democrats over the federal budget preceded the collapse, per the New York Times. 

According to The Conversation, this infighting eventually led Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the leader of the Social Democrats, to fire the Free Democrat finance minister Christian Lindner, causing the breakdown of the parties’ agreement. In a press conference on November 6, the BBC reports, Scholz laid much of the blame for the collapse on Lindner, asserting that Lindner “broke [his] trust too often.” Lindner was quick to respond to these criticisms, calling Scholz’s efforts to grow the economy “dull and unambitious,” per The New York Times. 

The center of this conflict is the 2025 federal budget. Both the left-leaning Greens and Social Democrats wanted to increase government spending to reinvigorate a lackluster German economy, reports The New York Times. In sharp contrast, Lindner sought to cut spending, expressing his desire to decrease funding for social services and terminate national climate policies in a leaked position paper.  Furthermore, the passage of the constitutional law known as the “Black Zero,” which makes deficit spending almost impossible except in the case of an emergency, has made it difficult for the government to find money to increase budgetary spending and led to more disputes between the governing parties, per The New York Times. 

In the wake of this conflict, the future of the German government remains uncertain, especially as the United States enters into a new administration after the election of President Donald Trump. In an interview with The Caravel, Director of the Senior Honors Program in the Department of Government at Georgetown University and Professor Eric Langenbacher provided insight into what this possible future could look like. He projected that the most likely outcome of the upcoming February election is a grand coalition between the two largest parties, the Social Democrats and the Christian Democratic Union. While a two-party coalition could provide more stability for the government, it will not solve Germany’s problems. 

Professor Langenbacher stated that Germany must tackle the issues of defense and a stagnant economy by increasing spending and passing a budget for 2025. However, this is easier said than done considering Germany’s aforementioned limits on spending and overregulation. While the consequences of a new Trump administration remain unknown, a potential conservative-led Germany, according to Professor Langenbacher, could be better for relations with a right-wing United States government. Predictions aside, only the upcoming February elections can say for certain what Germany’s international and domestic future will be.