The Danger of a Second Trump Presidency on Europe
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have radically different views when it comes to foreign policy (Flickr)
As the United States’ presidential election rapidly approaches, European leaders, economists, and political analysts are left to consider two starkly different outcomes. On November 5, Americans will choose between Democrat Kamala Harris, or Republican Donald Trump to serve as their President for the next four years. The decision will undoubtedly have significant political and economic effects on Europe, with the two candidates differing greatly in their plans for American foreign and economic policy.
Economists claim that President Trump’s reelection poses a large threat to European stability and economics, possibly resulting in a €150 billion loss in the Eurozone economy—around 1% of the region’s total gross domestic product (GDP). His aggressive trade policies, centered around raising tariffs “across-the-board” on US imports, would lead to uncertainty in the world economy, driving down Europe’s export levels and likely dramatically changing America’s trade relationships with European countries. As the “industrial powerhouse” of the region and a significant trade partner with the United States, Germany is expected to take the biggest hit as a result of Trump’s economic foreign policy, with Italy and Finland also expected to experience significant economic shocks. While Mr. Trump’s protectionist policies are an attempt to create an “economic nationalism” to boost America’s domestic economy, his politics will inevitably necessitate a strong response from European leaders looking to protect their economies.
A second Trump presidency would also threaten Europe’s political stability. Many Europeans fear that his presidency would lead to a sharp reduction in military aid for Ukraine in his attempts to end the war in Eastern Europe, and decrease American involvement in NATO—even putting the United States’ membership in the alliance in question. His policies may also dramatically change the political scene across Europe, spurring support for far-right political parties in countries like Germany, France, Italy, and Hungary. Conversely, experts expect a relative continuation of President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, should Vice-President Harris win the presidency, creating a sense of continuity on the world stage. VP Harris would be unlikely to initiate a sharp drop in American aid to Ukraine, and, more broadly, “would not disrupt the transatlantic relationship” in the same way the former President might.
Despite the risks President Trump may pose to Europe, some EU officials think a second Trump presidency would be a “beneficial shock.” His policies may be so “hostile,” they argue, that leaders would have no choice but to evolve their defense strategy, innovate, and move forward.
The US election will inevitably have significant global implications, particularly for the European economy and the momentum of far-right political movements. When Americans vote on November 5, the consequences of their decision will extend far beyond their country’s borders.