Far-Right Populists Predicted to Gain Big in EU Elections
Recent polls show possible far-right surge in upcoming European elections (Flickr).
The European Parliament’s next elections will be held from June 6-9, and a recent forecast published by the European Council on Foreign Affairs (ECFR) predicts a sizable increase of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from far-right parties. A possible increase in the influence of right-wing politics has many in Europe worried for the future of the EU.
Elections for the European Parliament take place every five years, with the latest elections held in 2019. The 720 MEPs are elected based on Proportional Representation. Larger states, such as Germany, can have up to 96 seats, while smaller states, like Malta, can have as few as six. These seats are allotted based on party lines within member states. These national parties then arrange themselves into supranational parties that share similar ideological backgrounds with other countries in parliament. For example, the Brothers of Italy, Poland’s Law and Justice party, and Spain’s Vox party are all part of the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) party, which votes as a block in the European Parliament. Some national parties are not affiliated with any party at the transnational level. Victor Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary is not currently aligned with any other party after it left the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) in 2021.
ECFR projects a major increase in far right MEPs in the upcoming European elections. Anti-European populists are likely to come in first in nine countries, including France and Italy. Another nine states will see these parties come in second or third, as in Germany and Spain. POLITICO stated that polls forecast that the far-right supranational party, Identity and Democracy (ID), will win 40 additional seats, bringing their total to 98. Such an increase would increase the size of their party from one of the smallest to the third largest. Polls also project the ECR party winning 18 more seats, bringing their count up to 85, reported POLITICO. The Guardian wrote that between ID, ECR, and Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, far-right MEPs could hold 25% of the total vote. In contrast, projections indicate that all mainstream center-right and center-left parties will lose MEPs. While a coalition between center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), centrist-liberal Renew Europe (RE), and center-right European People’s Party (EPP) would still hold a majority of votes, a right-wing coalition between ID, ECR, and EPP could have 49% of the vote after the upcoming elections, stated the European Council on Foreign Relations.
According to POLITICO, The European Parliament has always kept its far-right members from holding any influential positions, such as chairing committees or involvement in negotiations. Analysts have used the analogy of “cordon sanitaire,” a barrier that stops the spread of infectious diseases, to describe how mainstream parties restrain far-right politicians’ power by refusing to work with them, reported AP News. However, this barrier has begun to crumble in recent years as parties like Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France and Geert Wilder’s Party for Freedom in the Netherlands begin to gain traction, and even power, on the national level.
The EPP has stated that they will not work with what they call the “anti-European radical right”, detailed POLITICO. However, the EPP may decide to collaborate with far-right parties in some deals, after many years of left-wing parties excluding them. The European Council on Foreign Relations predicted that EPP will become the “pivotal MEP” after the election as the Parliament shifts further right. While partnership seems unlikely, the right-wing working together in parliament is not impossible.
An increase in the size of far-right parties, even if they do not win a majority, will still impact the policies passed within the European Parliament, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations. Policies regarding economic affairs that have passed with small margins could soon face even smaller margins. The increasing presence of Eurosceptic parties may push for more economic and regulatory freedom for the member states.
The European Council on Foreign Relations forecasted that Right-wing parties will likely also influence EU migration, asylum, and environmental policies. Many European citizens blame the EU’s environmental and immigration policies for exacerbating the standard-of-living crises they currently face, pushing them further right. Parties, like those in ID, who have built their platforms on these ideas will likely push for more restrictive immigration policies and more discretion to member states on limiting access. There has also been a narrow margin on imposing sanctions on countries with a backsliding rule of law, like Hungary and Poland, a margin which may disappear altogether should the far-right come to power. Furthermore, any of the green policies that have passed in Parliament have faced extremely thin margins, wrote EuroNews. Votes like the Nature Restoration Law that passed last July will likely not pass in the future parliament.