German AFD Claims Groundbreaking Victories in Saxony and Thuringia State Elections

The far-right AfD has recently experienced a surge in popularity across Germany. (Flickr)

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right, anti-establishment political party, secured groundbreaking electoral victories in the September 1 state elections for the East German states of  Saxony and Thuringia, placing second with 30.6 percent and first with 32.8 percent of the vote in the two states. Following three years of the center-left Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) rule and Olaf Scholz’s chancellorship, defined by declining approval ratings, the AfD’s victories could mark a turning point in German politics. This anti-establishment wave is further underscored by the  new left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance’s (BSW), finishing in third place in both elections.The AfD and BSW’s growing popularity in these East German states reflect rising discontent over economic stagnation and  immigration policies, raising questions over the future of Germany’s major centrist parties that have dominated national politics since the Second World War. 

The AfD’s rise is deeply intertwined with a sense that Germany’s established parties, the SPD and the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), have failed to enact effective policies in multiple spheres. Since taking office as Chancellor in 2021, Olaf Scholz has struggled to tackle crucial welfare and security crises. On the one hand, although the seeds of the challenges that Chancellor Scholz has encountered in the last three years—namely Germany’s reliance on Russian oil—were sown during his predecessor, Angela Merkel’s, 16-year tenure. However, Scholz has blundered time and time again in his rhetoric in regards to Ukraine and, most importantly, has failed to garner support from other EU countries for the Ukrainian cause. Yet, Scholz’s domestic policies have also generated doubt among voters. Since the beginning of Scholz’s tenure, the German economy has remained sluggish and business confidence has plummeted; with the economy either growing by a miniscule margin or contracted, with the impacts of such a slowdown being deeply felt by German consumers. Finally and perhaps most importantly for the rhetoric of the AfD and BSW, the increasing flow of immigrants into the country have been met by the SPD-led coalition’s seemingly reluctant responses. 

The AfD has capitalized on these issues to find itself a stable and growing spot in politics. Following her party’s victories, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel called the results a “requiem” for the major establishment parties in German politics, calling on other parties to collaborate with the AfD in forming a coalition government to respect the will of the people. However, as the major parties have disavowed any chance of forming a coalition with the AfD, all three non-establishment parties will likely create minority coalition governments in a politics-defying, anti-AFD alliance. Although the inability of the AfD to form a government has delayed the German political establishment’s reckoning with increasing voter disaffection, with federal elections only a year away and their popularity falling each day, the CDU and SPD must address the evolving trends of populism and resurgent nationalism. 

The Saxony and Thuringia elections mark the first time that a far-right party has claimed the top spot in a German state election since the end of Nazi rule in 1945. While the prevalence of political extremism in Eastern Germany is less surprising than instances in the more centrist and prosperous West Germany given the economic and cultural disparities that have continued to separate  East and West Germany since unification in 1990, German political figures still have to interpret these results as an early warning sign that voters are displeased with their representatives and are looking elsewhere for solutions. With the AfD claiming to speak for the silent majority, only time will tell if the political establishment can regain voters’ confidence in time to ward off a strong AfD showing in the September 2025 federal elections.